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Towards objective probabalistic climate forecasting

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Figure 1: The three-dimensional surface shows a forecast probability distribution of a one-dimensional quantity (global-mean warming above pre-industrial) accounting for uncertainty in the climate response, while the lines show the (smaller) impact of initial condition uncertainty in an ensemble of model simulations.

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  1. Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU, UK

    Myles R. Allen & David A. Stainforth

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  1. Myles R. Allen
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  2. David A. Stainforth
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Correspondence to David A. Stainforth.

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Allen, M., Stainforth, D. Towards objective probabalistic climate forecasting. Nature 419, 228 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092a

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