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A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere

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Abstract

The observed spatial patterns of temperature change in the free atmosphere from 1963 to 1987 are similar to those predicted by state-of-the-art climate models incorporating various combinations of changes in carbon dioxide, anthropogenic sulphate aerosol and stratospheric ozone concentrations. The degree of pattern similarity between models and observations increases through this period. It is likely that this trend is partially due to human activities, although many uncertainties remain, particularly relating to estimates of natural variability.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intelcomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, 94550, USA

    B. D. Santer & K. E. Taylor

  2. Atmospheric Science Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, 94550, USA

    K. E. Taylor & J. E. Penner

  3. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, 80307-3000, USA

    T. M. L. Wigley

  4. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, RG12 2SY, UK

    T. C. Johns, J. F. B. Mitchell & S. Tett

  5. Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

    P. D. Jones

  6. Cooperative Research Centre for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3168, Australia

    D. J. Karoly

  7. NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, PO Box 308, Princeton, New Jersey, 08542, USA

    A. H. Oort, V. Ramaswamy, M. D. Schwarzkopf & R. J. Stouffer

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  1. B. D. Santer
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Santer, B., Taylor, K., Wigley, T. et al. A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. Nature 382, 39–46 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1038/382039a0

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