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Bifurcations of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to changes in the hydrological cycle

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An Erratum to this article was published on 29 February 1996

Abstract

The sensitivity of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation to the input of fresh water is studied using a global ocean circulation model coupled to a simplified model atmosphere. Owing to the nonlinearity of the system, moderate changes in freshwater input can induce transitions between different equilibrium states, leading to substantial changes in regional climate. As even local changes in freshwater flux are capable of triggering convective instability, quite small perturbations to the present hydrological cycle may lead to temperature changes of several degrees on timescales of only a few years.

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  1. Institut für Meereskunde, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105, Kiel, Germany

    Stefan Rahmstorf

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  1. Stefan Rahmstorf
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Rahmstorf, S. Bifurcations of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to changes in the hydrological cycle. Nature 378, 145–149 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1038/378145a0

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