Abstract
CHANGES in the thickness of polar sea-ice have the potential to provide a signal of climate change, but attempts to identify trends must take into account the range of natural variability. Here we present an analysis of measurements of the subsurface ice thickness (draft) of sea-ice around the North Pole made from 1977 to 1990. These data were collected during six submarine cruises in late April/early May of 1977, 1979, 1986, 1987, 1988 and 1990, and represent the most extensive dataset so far for ice draft in the central Arctic at the same season and location. The results reveal considerable interannual variability both in mean ice draft (±1.0 m) and in open-water extent (±2.5%). This variability limits the confidence that can be placed in any apparent trends observed for sea-ice thickness or type since the late 1970s, and illustrates the need for a reliable baseline against which to assess future trends.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (eds Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J. & Ephraums, J. J.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990).
Manabe, S., Spelman, M. J. & Stouffer, R. J. J. Clim. 5, 105–126 (1992).
Bourke, R. H. & Garrett, R. P. Cold. Reg. Sci. Technol. 13, 259–280 (1987).
McLaren, A. S. J. geophys. Res. 94, 4971–4983 (1989).
Wadhams, P. Nature 345, 795–797 (1990).
McLaren, A. S. et al. Nature 345, 762 (1990).
Gloersen, P. & Campbell, W. J. Nature 352, 33–36 (1991).
Parkinson, C. L. & Cavalieri, D. J. J. geophys. Res. 94, 14499–14523 (1989).
McLaren, A. S. Arctic 41, 117–126 (1988).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
McLaren, A., Walsh, J., Bourke, R. et al. Variability in sea-ice thickness over the North Pole from 1977 to 1990. Nature 358, 224–226 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1038/358224a0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/358224a0
- Springer Nature Limited