Abstract
Drought-induced shortages are inevitable because of unexpected abnormal dry weather and the increasing need for water resources. Therefore, assessment of possible shortage conditions for a specific water supply system is an essential component in water resources planning and management. In this study, the shortage characteristics for the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan are investigated. A description of the reservoir yield in terms of the shortage frequency, magnitude, and duration is developed first. The derived reservoir yield description under a given operating policy and demand includes the reliability, total shortage rate, frequency, single period shortage, event shortage duration and magnitude, and interarrival time of shortage events. Hedging is a common measure adopted in reservoir operation that involves accepting a small current deficit to reduce future severe shortages. The reservoir supply index is then developed to trigger hedging in this study. The shortage characteristics for different lead-time hedging rules show that the derived reservoir supply index is a useful indicator for triggering hedging and the differences among reservoir performance for various release policies are easily compared using the derived reservoir yield description in terms of probabilistic shortage characteristics.
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Shiau, J.T. Water Release Policy Effects on the Shortage Characteristics for the Shihmen Reservoir System during Droughts. Water Resources Management 17, 463–480 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1023/B:WARM.0000004958.93250.8a
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/B:WARM.0000004958.93250.8a