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Forward Versus Trailing Earnings in Equity Valuation

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Abstract

This article articulates how forward earnings are more accurate valuation attributes than trailing earnings. First, I show that, while linear accrual rules cannot achieve accurate trailing earnings-value relations in a setting with unobserved information, they can achieve accurate forward earnings-value relations. Second, I prove that, even when accrual rules are restricted so that forward earnings fails to be an exact valuation attribute, more-forward earnings are more accurate valuation attributes than less-forward earnings or trailing earnings. In conclusion, even under deficient accrual policies, more-forward earnings are more accurate valuation attributes—the more-forward, the more accurate.

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Yee, K.K. Forward Versus Trailing Earnings in Equity Valuation. Review of Accounting Studies 9, 301–329 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1023/B:RAST.0000028192.03130.df

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/B:RAST.0000028192.03130.df

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