Abstract
This essay responds to D. Davis and W. C. Follette (2002), who question the value of motive evidence in murder cases. They argue that the evidence that a husband had extramarital affairs, that he heavily insured his wife's life, or that he battered his wife is ordinarily of infinitesimal probative value. We disagree. To be sure, it would be foolish to predict solely on the basis of such evidence that a husband will murder his wife. However, when this kind of evidence is combined with other evidence in a realistic murder case, the evidence can be quite probative. We analyze cases in which it is virtually certain that the victim was murdered but unclear who murdered her, and in which it is uncertain whether the husband murdered the wife or she died by accident. We show that in each case motive evidence, such as a history of battering or of infidelity, can substantially increase the odds of the husband's guilt. We also consider the actual case on which Davis and Follette base their paper. We argue that testimony of Davis on the basis of the analysis presented in their paper was properly excluded, for it would have been misleading and unhelpful.
References
Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, 509 U.S. 579 (1993).
Davis, D., & Follette, W. C. (2002). Rethinking the probative value of evidence: Base rates, intuitive profiling, and the "postdiction" of behavior. Law and Human Behavior, 26, 133–158.
Friedman, R. D. (1986a). A close look at probative value. Boston University Law Review, 66, 733–759.
Friedman, R. D. (1986b). Postscript: On quantifying probative value. Boston University Law Review, 66, 767–770.
Friedman, R. D. (1996). Assessing evidence. Michigan L. R., 94, 1810–1838.
Friedman, R. D. (2000). A presumption of innocence, not of even odds. Stanford L. R., 52, 873–887.
Gigerenzer, G. (2002). Calculated risks: How to know when numbers deceive you. New York: Simon & Shuster.
Good, I. J. (1995). When batterer turns murderer. Nature, 375, 541.
Good, I. J. (1996). When batterer becomes murderer. Nature, 381, 481.
Johnson, H. (1995). Risk factors associated with non-lethal violence against women by marital partners. In C. Block & R. Block (Eds.), Trends, risks, and interventions in lethal violence. Proceedings of the third annual spring symposium of the Homicide Research Working Group (pp. 151–168), Atlanta, GA.
Kaye, D. H. (1986). Quantifying probative value. Boston University Law Review, 66, 761–766.
Keller, D. (2001). An almost perfect murder: The saga of Michael Franklin. McLean, VA: IndyPublish.com.
Park, R. C. (1996). Character evidence issues in the O. J. Simpson Case—or, rationales of the character evidence ban, with illustrations from the Simpson Case. University of Colorado. Law Review, 67, 747–776.
Park, R. C. (1998). Character at the crossroads. Hastings Law Journal, 49, 717–779.
Saltzburg, S. A. (1978). A special aspect of relevance: Countering negative inferences associated with the absence of evidence. California Law Review, 66, 1011–1060.
Saturday Today (NBC television broadcast, Jan. 14, 1995), available at 1995 WL 2709880.
Wilson, W. (2000a). Accused killer pursued women always, jury told. Sacramento Bee. June 7, 2000, p. B3.
Wilson, W. (2000b). Woman dreaded Sierra trip, boss testifies, Sacramento Bee. June 28, 2000, p. B4.
Wilson, W. (2000c). Franklin guilty of murder: Jury finds special circumstances true. Sacramento Bee. August 19, 2000, p. B1.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
About this article
Cite this article
Friedman, R.D., Park, R.C. Sometimes What Everybody Thinks They Know Is True. Law Hum Behav 27, 629–644 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1023/B:LAHU.0000004891.73982.d3
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/B:LAHU.0000004891.73982.d3