Abstract
How many of the recorded US home fire deaths and injuries were people who could have avoided harm if they had more time to escape? This does not ask how many of these victims could be saved by all means available. It asks how many could be saved solely by means that extend the time available for escape.
Analysis indicates that roughly half of the deaths and roughly two-thirds of the injuries could be prevented were the times to incapacitating exposures lengthened sufficiently to result in a more favorable outcome. Even for this group, many victims were asleep when fatally injured and would have needed help they did not receive in order to awaken, e.g., an operational smoke alarm, but would not likely have gained any additional usable time through changes to the fire timeline alone.
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References
ISO CD 13571 [since adopted in somewhat modified form as a Technical Specification(TS)], Fire hazard analysis-Life threat components of Fire, Geneva, Switzerland: ISO, 2001.
NFPA101, Safety to Life from Fire in Buildings and Structures, 2000 edition, Quincy, MA: NFPA, 2000, Sections 1.2.4 and 4.1.1.
Michael J. Karter, Jr., Fire Loss in the United States During 2000, Quincy, MA: NFPA Fire Analysis & Research Division, September 2001.
For examples of analyses of US home fire patterns using NFIRS national estimates and 1993-1997 data, see Marty Ahrens, The U.S. Fire Problem Overview Report, Quincy, MA: NFPA Fire Analysis & Research Division, 2000.
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Hall, J.R. How Many People Can Be Saved from Home Fires if Given More Time to Escape?. Fire Technology 40, 117–126 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1023/B:FIRE.0000016839.11376.b3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/B:FIRE.0000016839.11376.b3