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A Bayesian Approach to Tracking Patients Having Changing Pharmacokinetic Parameters

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Abstract

This paper considers the updating of Bayesian posterior densities for pharmacokinetic models associated with patients having changing parameter values. For estimation purposes it is proposed to use the Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) estimation algorithm, which is currently a popular algorithm in the aerospace community for tracking maneuvering targets. The IMM algorithm is described, and compared to the multiple model (MM) and Maximum A-Posteriori (MAP) Bayesian estimation methods, which are presently used for posterior updating when pharmacokinetic parameters do not change. Both the MM and MAP Bayesian estimation methods are used in their sequential forms, to facilitate tracking of changing parameters. Results indicate that the IMM algorithm is well suited for tracking time-varying pharmacokinetic parameters in acutely ill and unstable patients, incurring only about half of the integrated error compared to the sequential MM and MAP methods on the same example.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Mail Stop 198–326, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA, 91109

    David S. Bayard (Senior Research Scientist)

  2. Laboratory of Applied Pharmacokinetics, School of Medicine, University of Southern California, 2250 Alcazar St., CSC 134B, Los Angeles, CA, 90033

    Roger W. Jelliffe (Director)

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  1. David S. Bayard
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  2. Roger W. Jelliffe
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Correspondence to David S. Bayard.

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Bayard, D.S., Jelliffe, R.W. A Bayesian Approach to Tracking Patients Having Changing Pharmacokinetic Parameters. J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn 31, 75–107 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1023/B:JOPA.0000029490.76908.0c

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