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Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

  • Nair RajeshEmail author
  • P.R. Shukla
  • Manmohan Kapshe
  • Amit Garg
  • Ashish Rana
Article

Abstract

In the coming years India faces greatchallenges in energy and environment. Thepath of development chosen by India, uponwhich lies the future growth of energy andemission trajectories, would be greatlyinfluenced by technological developmentsboth within and outside the country,economic cooperation between countries, andglobal cooperation in limiting greenhousegas emissions. This paper discusses theintegrated modeling system used fordeveloping and analyzing the long-termtrajectories and presents results for thescenarios developed. In the context ofongoing market reforms two scenarios –accelerated and decelerated reforms – aredeveloped depicting fast and slow progressin energy sector reforms compared toexpectations in the baseline scenario.Accelerated market reforms would spurimprovements in technological efficiencies.Reforms would lower investment risks inIndia, thereby stimulating increased levelsof foreign direct investment. On the otherhand in decelerated reform scenarioeconomic growth is lower than that in thebase case, there is low access to capital,and technological improvements lag behindthose in the base case. In another scenariowe assume specific policy interventions forpenetration of renewable technologies overthe baseline scenario, for promotion andaccelerated deployment of renewable energytechnologies over and above the baselineassumptions. A scenario with carbon(c) constraints has also been developed and theresults discussed.

carbon-constrained scenario integrated energy emissions modelling long-term modelling market reforms regional energy markets renewable energy 

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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • Nair Rajesh
    • 1
    Email author
  • P.R. Shukla
    • 2
  • Manmohan Kapshe
    • 1
  • Amit Garg
    • 3
  • Ashish Rana
    • 4
  1. 1.Indian Institute of Management, VastrapurAhmedabadIndia
  2. 2.Public Systems GroupIndian Institute of Management, VastrapurAhmedabadIndia
  3. 3.Project Management Cell, NATCOM Project, Winrock International IndiaNew Delhi -India
  4. 4.Social and Environmental Systems DivisionNational Institute for Environmental StudiesIbarakiJapan

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