Econometric Modelling of the Russian Economy

Abstract

The presented models of the Russian economy can be utilized for making short-term macroeconomic forecasts (1–2 quarters forward) as well as for scenario calculations. The models focus on the investigation of the dependence of Russian macroeconomic performance on the world oil prices, Russian external debt payments, and Russia's government social transfers. The models are built as a system of simultaneous equations, and as a vector autoregressions model. The models are calculated on the basis of quarter macroeconomic data (from the 4th quarter 1994 to the 1st quarter 2002), taken from the official governmental statistics. The description, methods and specification of the models, results of its identification and its analytical power, short-term forecasts and scenario calculations, as well as a comparative analysis of a prognostic power of SSE- and VAR-models are presented in the paper. The description allows users to update the model's results, obtaining short-term forecasts and making scenario calculations with users' data.