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A Scenario of Possible Effect of Changes in the Hydrological Conditions on the Medical and Environmental Situation: On the Problem of Global Hydroclimatic Changes

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Abstract

The effect of transformation of the human habitat on the medical and ecological situation is considered in the context of anticipated changes in the hydrological situation. The results of earlier studies of environmental crises (transgression of the Caspian Sea and degression of the Aral Sea) are used to show the possibility of a considerable increase in the rates of infectious and noninfectious diseases caused by a direct or indirect effect of significant changes in the hydrological and hydrogeological conditions. Regularities in the dynamics of this process have been established, which allows us to discuss possible changes in public health under new hydroclimatic conditions, in particular, under global climate changes. It is shown that the scientific principles and methods for prediction of the consequences of changes in the regime, quantity, and quality of continental waters should be improved in order to allow the assessment of their effect on public health and the development of timely preventive measures.

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  1. Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Gubkina 3, Moscow, GSP-1, 119991, Russia

    L. I. Elpiner

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Elpiner, L.I. A Scenario of Possible Effect of Changes in the Hydrological Conditions on the Medical and Environmental Situation: On the Problem of Global Hydroclimatic Changes. Water Resources 30, 434–444 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024928431457

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