Abstract
A cross-validation of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide was performed on a sample of 159 child molesters and rapists followed for an average of 10 years at risk The performance of the instrument was also examined on a 10-yr followup of 288 sex offenders that included both those in the original construction sample for the VRAG and the validation sample. The instrument performed as well as it had in construction for predicting violent recidivism in both the cross-validation and extended followup samples, and moderately well in the prediction of sexual recidivism. Survival analyses showed that child molesters exhibited higher risk of sexual recidivism than rapists or offenders against both children and adults, whereas the opposite was true for violent recidivism. As predicted, psychopathy and phallometrically determined sexual deviance exhibited a multiplicative interaction effect on sexual recidivism. Proportional hazards event history analyses supported the use of the VRAG for the prediction of violent recidivism among sex offenders.
Similar content being viewed by others
REFERENCES
Allison, P. D. (1984). Event history analysis: Regression for longitudinal event data. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
Cohen, J. (1992). A power primer. Psychological Bulletin, 112, 155–159.
Gardner, W., Lidz, C. W., Mulvey, E. P., ⇐p; Shaw, E. C. (1996). Clinical versus actuarial predictions of violence by patients with mental illnesses. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 64, 602–609.
Gottfredson, M. R., ⇐p; Hirschi, T. (1990). A general theory of crime. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Hall, G. C. N., ⇐p; Hirschman, R. (1991). Toward a theory of sexual aggression: A quadripartite model. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 59, 662–669.
Hanson, K. R., Scott, H., ⇐p; Steffy, R. A. (1995). A comparison of child molesters and nonsexual criminals: Risk predictors and long-term recidivism. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 32, 325–337.
Hanson, R. K., Steffy, R. A., ⇐p; Gauthier, R. (1993). Long-term recidivism of child molesters. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 61, 646–652.
Hare, R. D. (1991). The Revised Psychopathy Checklist. Toronto: Multi-Health Systems.
Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., ⇐p; Quinsey, V. L. (1993). Violent recidivism of mentally disordered offenders: The development of a statistical prediction instrument. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 20, 315–335.
Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., ⇐p; Quinsey, V. L. (1994). Psychopathy as a taxon: Evidence that psychopaths are a discrete class. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 62, 387–397.
Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Quinsey, V. L., Chaplin, T. C., ⇐p; Earls, C. (1992). Maximizing the discriminant validity of phallometric assessment. Psychological Assessment, 4, 502–511.
Lalumière, M. L., ⇐p; Quinsey, V. L. (1993). The sensitivity of phallometric measures with rapists. Annals of Sex Research, 6, 123–138.
McGraw, K. O., ⇐p; Wong, S. P. (1992). A common language effect size statistic. Psychological Bulletin, 111, 361–365.
Mossman, D. (1994). Assessing predictions of violence: Being accurate about accuracy. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 62, 783–792.
Quinsey, V. L. (1984). Politique institutionelle de liberation: Identification des individus dangereux: une revue de la literature (Institutional release policy and the identification of dangerous men: A review of the literature). Criminologie, 17, 53–78.
Quinsey, V. L., Lalumière, M. L., Rice, M. E., ⇐p; Harris, G. T. (1995). Predicting sexual offenses. In J.C. Campbell (Ed.), Assessing dangerousness: Violence by sexual offenders, batterers, and child abusers (pp. 114–137). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Quinsey, V. L., Rice, M. E., ⇐p; Harris, G. T. (1995). The actuarial prediction of sexual recidivism. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 10, 85–105.
Rice, M. E., ⇐p; Harris, G. T. (1995). Violent recidivism: Assessing predictive validity. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 63, 737–748.
Rice, M. E., Harris, G. T., ⇐p; Cormier, C. A. (1992). Evaluation of a maximum security therapeutic community for psychopaths and other mentally disordered offenders. Law and Human Behavior, 16, 399–412.
Rice, M. E., Harris, G. T., Lang, C., ⇐p; Bell, V. (1990). Recidivism among male insanity acquittees. Journal of Psychiatry and Law, 18, 379–403.
Rice, M. E., Harris, G. T., ⇐p; Quinsey, V. L. (1990). A followup of rapists assessed in a maximum security psychiatric facility. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 5, 435–448.
Rice, M. E., Quinsey, V. L., ⇐p; Harris, G. T. (1991). Sexual recidivism among child molesters released from a maximum security psychiatric institution. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 59, 381–386.
Rice, M. E., Quinsey, V. L., ⇐p; Houghton, R. (1990). Predicting treatment outcome and recidivism among patients in a maximum security token economy. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 8, 313–326.
Swets, J. A. (1986). Form of empirical ROCs in discrimination and diagnostic tasks: Implications for theory and measurement of performance. Psychological Bulletin, 99, 181–198.
Webster, C. D., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Cormier, C., ⇐p; Quinsey, V. L. (1994). The violence prediction scheme: Assessing dangerousness in high risk men. Toronto, ON: University of Toronto.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
About this article
Cite this article
Rice, M.E., Harris, G.T. Cross-Validation and Extension of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide for Child Molesters and Rapists. Law Hum Behav 21, 231–241 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024882430242
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024882430242