Abstract
In this paper we investigate some of the ways in whichshort-term variations in the magnitude of politicalinstability can impact on macroeconomic performance, takingthe example of Israel since 1987. Several indicators ofpolitical instability are found to have a significant impacton aggregate consumption and savings, and explain a large partof poor Israeli savings performance over recent years.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alesina, A. and Perotti, R. (1993). Income distribution, political instability and investment. NBER Working Paper 4486.
Alesina, A. and Perotti, R. (1994). The political economy of growth. World Bank Economic Review 8: 351–371.
Bank of Israel (1999). Controller of foreign exchange – Annual survey 1999. Jerusalem, Israel.
B'Tselem (1999). Deaths in Israel. http://www2.iol.co.il/btselem.
Carruth, A. and Henley, A. (1990). Can existing consumption functions forecast consumer spending in the late 1980s? Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 52: 211–222.
Cuckierman, A. (1988). The end of Israeli high inflation: An experiment in heterodox stabilization.In Bruno, M., DiTella, G., Dornbusch, R. and Fischer, S. (Eds.), Inflation stabilization. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74: 427–431.
Easterly, W. and Levine, R. (1987). Africa's growth tragedy. Quarterly Journal of Economics 112: 1203–1249.
Fedderke, J. and Klitgaard, R. (1998). Economic growth and social indicators: An exploratory analysis. Economic Development and Cultural Change 46: 455–490.
Fry, M. (1993). Financial repression and economic growth. University of Birmingham (England) Department of Economics, Working Paper 93-07.
Gurr, T. (1997). Polity II: Political structures and regime change, 1800–1986. Working Paper 9263, Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.
Hall, R. (1978). Stochastic implications of the life cycle – permanent income hypothesis: Theory and evidence. Journal of Political Economy 96: 971–987.
Hansen, B. (1982). Testing for parameter stability in linear models. Journal of Policy Modelling 14: 517–533.
Jovanovic, B. and Ueda, M. (1997). Contracts and money. Journal of Political Economy 1997: 700–709.
Kormendi, R. and Meguire, P. (1985). Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics 16: 141–163.
Lattimore, R. (1993). Consumption and saving in Australia. D.Phil. thesis, University of Oxford.
Lattimore, R. and Muellbauer, J. (1994). The consumption function: A theoretical and empirical overview. In Pesaran, M. and Wickends, M. (Eds.), Handbook of applied economics. Oxford, England: Blackwells.
Levhari, D. and Srinivasan, T. (1969). Optimal savings under uncertainty. Review of Economic Studies 36: 153–163.
Lisman, J. and Sandee, J. (1964). Derivation of quarterly figures from annual data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series C) 13: 87–90.
Liviatan, N. (1988). Israel's stabilization program. World Bank PRE Working Paper 91.
Mayer, T. (1988). The awakening of moslems in Israel. Institute for Arab Studies, Givat-Haviva, Israel.
McKinnon, R. (1973). Money and capital in economic development. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
Miller, B. (1976). The effect on optimal consumption of increased uncertainty in labor income in the multiperiod case. Journal of Economic Theory 13: 154–167.
Muellbauer, J. (1994). The assessment: Consumer expenditure. Oxford Review of Economic Policy 10: 1–41.
Muellbauer, J. and Murphy, A. (1993). Income expectations, wealth and demography in the aggregate US consumption function. Mimeo. Oxford: Nuffield College.
Peretz, D. (1990). Intifada: The Palestinian uprising. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
Razin, A. and Sadka, E. (1993). The economy of Israel: Malaise and promise. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Rothschild, M. and Stiglitz, J. (1971). Increasing risk II: Its economic consequences. Journal of Economic Theory 3: 66–84.
Rouhana, N. (1989). The political transformation of the palestinians in Israel. Journal of Palestine Studies 8: 38–59.
Rouhana, N. (1991). Palestinians in Israel: Responses to the uprising. In Brynen, R. (Ed.), Echoes of the Intifada: Regional repercussions of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
Rouhana, N. and Fiske, S. (1995). Perception of power, threat, and conflict intensity in asymmetric group conflict: Arab and Jewish citizens of Israel. Journal of Conflict Resolution 39: 49–81.
Shaw, E. (1973). Financial deepening in economic development. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Villanueva, D. and Mirakhor, A. (1990). Strategies for financial reforms. IMF Staff Papers 37: 509–536.
White, H. (1980). A heteroscedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroscedasticity. Econometrica 48: 817–838.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Fielding, D. Counting the Cost of the Intifada: Consumption, Saving and Political Instability in Israel. Public Choice 116, 297–312 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024831518541
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024831518541