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An Optimum Population for North and Latin America

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Abstract

The population of North America, which now stands at nearly 300 million people, is projected to double in about 60 years, while the population of nearly 500 million people in South America is projected to double in less than 40 years. Both of these populations obtain more than 99% of their food from the land, and this percentage will increase as these populations grow. Maintaining fertile and ample land is critical if these large populations are to be fed. Soil degradation by soil erosion is a serious problem on both continents. In addition, agricultural land is being lost to urbanization and highways because of rapid population growth. Nearly a half hectare of land is needed for urbanization for each person added to the North American population; this is already causing serious problems with agriculture in some states in the United States. The land resources that are critical for food production will be especially so if the populations of both continents double to nearly 2 billion. Land resources will also be critical when both continents deplete their fossil fuels in less than 100 years and have to turn to renewable energy sources. With about 2 billion people, there will be serious shortages of food, water, and energy resources and the standard of living will significantly decline. Our assessment suggests that for a relatively high standard of living in North and South America each continent should have no more than about 200 million people, or a total of 400 million.

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  1. Cornell University, Italy

    David Pimentel

  2. Istituto Nazionale della Nutrizione, Rome, Italy

    Mario Giampietro & Sandra G.F. Bukkens

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Pimentel, D., Giampietro, M. & Bukkens, S.G. An Optimum Population for North and Latin America. Population and Environment 20, 125–148 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1023367211000

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