Skip to main content

The Exchange Rate Macroeconomic Balance Approach: New Methodology and Results for the Euro, the Dollar, the Yen and the Pound Sterling

Abstract

This paper presents an extension of the macroeconomic exchange rate balance approach. This extension comprises two new aspects. Firstly, it is based on a multinational framework which allows for macroeconomic linkages between countries. Secondly, it uses a procedure that does not require a full modeling of the world economy to derive a consistent set of equilibrium exchange rates. The findings reveal that, in 2001, the dollar was overvalued against the euro and the yen. The paper also shows that this result depends heavily on the chosen notion of current account sustainability.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

References

  • Alberola, E., S. Cervero, H. Lopez, and A. Ubide (1999) “Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, “Ins,” “Outs” and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework.” IMFWorking Paper, WP/99/175.

  • Borowski, D. and C. Couharde (1999a) “Quelle parité d' équilibre pour l'euro?” Economie Internationale 77; 1st quarter.

  • —— (1999b) “La compétitivité relative des Etats-Unis, du Japon et de la zone euro,” “Compétitivité et taux de change d' équilibre de long terme.” Appendix B and C. In CAE (ed.), Architecture financière internationale. Rapport du Conseil d'Analyse Economique 18, Paris: La Documentation Française.

    Google Scholar 

  • CAE (1999) Architecture financière internationale. Rapport du Conseil d'Analyse Economique 18, Paris: La Documentation Française.

    Google Scholar 

  • Clostermann, J. and B. Schnatz (2000) “The Determinants of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate.” Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper n°2/00.

  • Cœuré, B. and J. Pisani-Ferry (1999) “The Euro, the Yen and the Dollar: The Case Against Benign Neglect.” Paper Presented to the Conference on Reforming the International Monetary and Financial System, Washington, May.

  • Davanne, O. (1998) Instabilité du système financier international. Rapport du Conseil d'Analyse Economique 14, Paris: La Documentation Française.

    Google Scholar 

  • Detken, C. et al. (2001) “Determinants of the Effective Real Exchange Rate of the Synthetic Euro: Alternative Methodological Approaches.” Mimeo.

  • Duval, R. (2001) “Estimation du taux de change réel d' équilibre de long terme euro/dollar par une approche dynamique synthétique.” Mimeo.

  • Garnier, O. (2001) “L'euro victime (provisoire) de son propre choc.” Societal, n°31.

  • IMF (2001) “What is Driving the Weakness of the Euro and Strength of the Dollar.” World Economic Outlook, May.

  • Isard, P. and H. Faruqee (1998) “Exchange Rate Assessment—Extensions of the Macroeconomic Balance Approach.” IMF Occasional Paper 167.

  • Koen, V., L. Boone, A. de Serres, and N. Fuchs (2001) “Tracking the Euro.” OECD Working Paper n°298, June.

  • Krugman, P. (1985) “Is the Strong Dollar Sustainable?” In The U.S. Dollar—Recent Developments, Outlook and Policy Options. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

  • Lorenzen, H. and N. Thygesen (2000) “The Relation Between the Euro and the Dollar.” Paper for EPRU Conference Perspectives on Danish and European Economic Policy, Copenhagen 9–10 November.

  • Mann, C. (1999) Is the U.S. Trade Deficit Sustainable? Policy Analyses in International Economics. Washington DC: Institute for International Economics.

    Google Scholar 

  • —— (2002) “Perspectives on the U.S. Current Account Deficit and Sustainability.” Forthcoming in Journal of Economic Perspectives 16(3):131–152.

    Google Scholar 

  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. and A. Razin (1996) “Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits.” NBER Working Paper 5467.

  • Newnham, S. and N. Alvarez-Grijalba (2001) “The Euro-Dollar's Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate.” Handbook Series, 19th October.

  • Teïletche, J. (2000) “La parité euro/dollar durant les décennies 80 et 90: peut-on trouver une spécification raisonnable à cet horizon?” Mimeo, December.

  • Williamson, J. (1994) Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates. Washington DC: Institute for International Economics.

    Google Scholar 

  • Williamson, J. and M. Mahar (1998) “Current Account Targets.” Appendix A. In Wren-Lewis, S. and R. Driver (eds.), Real Exchange Rates for the Year 2000. Policy Analyses in International Economics 54, Washington DC: Institute for International Economics.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wren-Lewis, S. (1992) “On the Analytical Foundations of the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate.” In C.P. Heargreaves (ed.), Macroeconomic Modelling of the Long Run, E. Elgar.

  • —— (2000) “How Much is the Euro Undervalued?” Paper Presented at the Workshop on Euro-Dollar Relations on January 25. Center of European Policy Studies, Brussels, Belgium.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wren-Lewis, S. and R. Driver (1998) Real Exchange Rates for the Year 2000. Policy Analyses in International Economics 54. Washington DC: Institute for International Economics.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Borowski, D., Couharde, C. The Exchange Rate Macroeconomic Balance Approach: New Methodology and Results for the Euro, the Dollar, the Yen and the Pound Sterling. Open Economies Review 14, 169–190 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022314013924

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022314013924

  • equilibrium exchange rate
  • macroeconomic balance approach
  • current account sustainability