Abstract
The third and fourth statistical moments, that is, skewness and kurtosis, are compared for daily maximum temperature in summer and daily minimum temperature in winter between observations, outputs of two global climate models, four versions of statistical downscaling, and weather generator. The comparison is performed at six stations in central Europe. None of the simulation models can be considered as superior to the others. Causes of a good correspondence with and differences from observations are identified e.g. in the treatment of physics in the models, imperfections in physical parameterizations, or a linear transfer of properties from predictors onto predictands in statistical downscaling.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
DKRZ, 1993. The ECHAM3 Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Report No.6, Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Hamburg, 184 pp.
Dubrovský; M., 1996. Validation of the Met & Roll stochastic generator. Meteorol. zpr., 49, 129-138. [in Czech]
Dubrovský; M., 1997. Creating daily weather series with use of the weather generator. Environmetrics, 8, 409-424.
Dubrovský; M., Žalud Z. and Š?astná M., 2000. Sensitivity of CERES-Maize yields to statistical structure of daily weather series. Clim. Change, 46, 447-472.
Hay L.E., Wilby R.L. and Leavesley G.H., 2000. A comparison of delta change and downscaling GCM scenarios for three mountainous basins in the United States. J. Amer. Water Resour. Assoc., 36, 387-397.
Huth R., 1999. Statistical downscaling in central Europe: Evaluation of methods and potential predictors. Clim. Res., 13, 91-101.
Huth R. and Pokorná L., 2001. Simulation of selected climatic elements by the model of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling (CCCM). Meteorol. zpr., 54, 114-122. [in Czech]
Huth R., Kyselý; J. and Dubrovský; M., 2001. Time structure of observed, GCM-simulated, downscaled, and stochastically generated daily temperature series. J. Climate, 14, 4047-4061.
Kalnay E. and Coauthors, 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437-471.
Kalvová J., Raidl A., Trojáková A., Žák M. and Nemešová I., 2000. Canadian climate model-air temperature over European region and in the Czech Republic. Meteorol. zpr., 53, 137-145. [in Czech]
Karl T.R., Wang W.C., Schlesinger M.E., Knight R.W. and Portman D., 1990. A method of relating general circulation model simulated climate to the observed local climate. Part I: Seasonal statistics. J. Climate, 3, 1053-1079.
Kharin V.V. and Zwiers F.W., 2000. Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. J. Climate, 13, 3760-3788.
Kidson J.W. and Thompson C.S., 1998. A comparison of statistical and model-based downscaling techniques for estimating local climate variations. J. Climate, 11, 735-753.
Kyselý; J., 2002. Comparison of extremes in GCM-simulated, downscaled and observed central-European temperature series. Clim. Res., 20, 211-222.
Laprise R., Caya D., Giguère M., Bergeron G., Côté H., Blanchet J.-P., Boer G.J. and McFarlane N.A., 1998. Climate and climate change in western Canada as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model. Atmos. Ocean, 36, 119-167.
McFarlane N.A., Boer G.J., Blanchet J.-P. and Lazare M., 1992. The Canadian Climate Centre second-generation general circulation model and its equilibrium climate. J. Climate, 5, 1013-1044.
Nemešová I. and Kalvová J., 1997. On the validity of ECHAM-simulated daily extreme temperatures. Studia geoph. geod., 41, 396-406.
Nemešová I., Kalvová J., Buchtele J. and Klimperová N., 1998. Comparison of GCM-simulated and observed climates for assessing hydrological impacts of climate change. J. Hydrol. Hydromech., 46, 237-263.
Palutikof J.P., Winkler J.A., Goodess C.M. and Andresen J.A., 1997. The simulation of daily temperature time series from GCM output. Part I: Comparison of model data with observations. J. Climate, 10, 2497-2513.
von Storch H., 1999. On the use of “inflation” in statistical downscaling. J. Climate, 12, 3505-3506.
White G.H., 1980. Skewness, kurtosis and extreme values of Northern Hemisphere geopotential heights. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 1446-1455.
Wilby R.L., Hay L.E. and Leavesley G.H., 1999. A comparison of downscaled and raw GCM output: implications for climate change scenarios in the San Juan River basin, Colorado. J. Hydrol., 225, 67-91.
Zorita E. and von Storch H., 1999. The analog method as a simple downscaling technique: Comparison with more complicated methods. J. Climate, 12, 2472-2489.
Zwiers F.W. and Kharin V.V., 1998. Changes in the extremes of the climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO2doubling. J. Climate, 11, 2200-2222.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Huth, R., Kyselý, J. & Dubrovský, M. Simulation of Surface Air Temperature by GCMs, Statistical Downscaling and Weather Generator: Higher-Order Statistical Moments. Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica 47, 203–216 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022216025554
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022216025554