Abstract
An integrated assessment model (IAM) conceived in the vein ofthe inverse approach is introduced. The model is designed tohelp social actors in making informed judgments about climatechange impact targets, mitigation costs, and implementation mechanisms.Based on these normative decisions, the model verifies whetherthere exist long-term future emission paths that satisfy theuser-defined constraints. If they do, the model determines anemission corridor containing all permissible emission trajectories.An overview of the IAM is provided and short descriptions ofthe model components are presented. Forward and inverse modesof application are explained. Examples based on impacts of climatechange on aggregated potential crop production in Western Europeand South Asia illustrate how the model can be applied in differentmodes. The examples demonstrate how the inverse approach separatessocial judgments shaping climate policy from the model-basedanalysis of their implications. The examples also show the differencein climate change tolerance between developed regions in temperatezones and less developed regions in already warm climate zones.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alcamo, J.: 1994, IMAGE 2.0-Integrated Modeling of Global Climate Change, Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Alcamo, J. and Kreileman, E.: 1996a, The Global Climate System: Near Term Action for Long Term Protection, RIVM-report 481508001, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Alcamo, J. and Kreileman, E.: 1996b, 'Emissions Scenarios and Global Climate Protection, Global Environ. Change, 6, 305–334.
Alcamo, J., Leemans, R., and Kreileman, E., (eds.): 1998, Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century. Results from the IMAGE 2.1 Model, Pergamon, Oxford, U.K.
Bruckner, T., Hooss, G., Füssel, H.-M., and Hasselmann, K.: 2003, ‘Climate System Modeling in the Framework of the Tolerable Windows Approach: The ICLIPS Climate Model’, Clim. Change, this issue.
Cubasch, U. and Meehl, G.A. (co-ordinating lead authors) et al.: 2001, ‘Projections of Future Climate Change’, in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., pp. 525–582.
Döll, P., Kaspar, F., and Alcamo, J.: 1999, ‘Computation of Global Water Availability and Water Use at the Scale of Large Drainage Basins’, Mathematische Geologie 4, 111–118.
Edmonds, J., Wise, M., Pitcher, H., Richels, R., Wigley, T. M. L., and MacCracken, C.: 1996, ‘An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and the Accelerated Introduction of Advanced Energy Technologies: An Application of MiniCAM 1.0’, Mitigation Adaptation Strategies 1, 311–339.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization): 1981, Report on the Agro-ecological Zones Project. Vol. 3: Methodology and Results for South and Central America, World Soil Resources Report 48, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.
Füssel, H.-M., Toth, F. L., van Minnen J. G., and Kaspar, F.: 2003, ‘Climate Impact Response Functions as Impact Tools in the Tolerable Windows Approach’, Clim. Change, this issue.
Gitay, H., Brown, S., Easterling, W., Jallow, B. (co-ordinating lead authors) et al.: 2001, ‘Ecosystems and their Goods and Services’, in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., pp. 235–342.
Gritsevskyi, A. and Schrattenholzer, L.: 2003, ‘Costs of Reducing Carbon Emissions: An Integrated Modeling Framework Approach’, Clim. Change, this issue.
Hertel, T. W. (ed.): 1995, Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): 1996, Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): 2000, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
Klepper, G. and Springer, K.: 2003, ‘Climate Protection Strategies: International Allocation and Distribution Effects’, Clim. Change, this issue.
Leemans, R. and van den Born, G.: 1994, ‘Determining the Potential Global Distribution of Natural Vegetation, Crops and Agricultural Productivity’, Water Air Soil Pollut. 76, 133–162.
Leimbach, M. and Toth, F. L.: 2003, ‘Economic Development and Emission Control over the Long Term: The ICLIPS Aggregated Economic Model’, Clim. Change, this issue.
Manne, A. S., Mendelsohn, R., and Richels, R. G.: 1995, ‘MERGE-A Model for Evaluating Regional and Global Effects of GHG Reduction Policies’, Energy Policy 23, 17–34.
Nakicenovic, N., Grübler, A., and McDonald, A.: 1998, Global Energy Perspectives, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
Nordhaus, W. D.: 1994, Managing the Global Commons: Economics of the Greenhouse Effect, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Nordhaus, W. D. and Boyer, J.: 2000, Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Prentice, I. C., Cramer, W., Harrison, S. P., Leemans, R., Monserud, R. A., and Solomon, A. M.: 1992, ‘A Global Biome Model Based on Plant Physiology and Dominance, Soil Properties and Climate’, J. Biogeogr. 19, 117–134.
Sands, R. D. and Leimbach, M.: 2003, ‘Modeling Agriculture and Land Use in an Integrated Assessment Framework’, Clim. Change, this issue.
Smit, B. and Pilifosova, O. (co-ordinating lead authors) et al.: 2001, ‘Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity’, in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., pp. 877–912.
Swart, R., Berk, M., Janssen, M., Kreileman, E., and Leemans, R.: 1998, ‘The Safe Landing Approach: Risks and Trade-offs in Climate Change’, in Alcamo, J., Leemans, R., and Kreileman, E. (eds.), Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century-Results from the IMAGE 2.1. Model, Pergamon, Oxford, U.K., pp. 193–218.
Toth, F. L., Bruckner, T., Füssel, H.-M., Leimbach, M., and Petschel-Held, G.: 2003, ‘Integrated Assessment of Long-term Climate Policies: Part 2-Model Results and Uncertainty Analysis’, Clim. Change, this issue.
Toth, F. L., Bruckner, T., Füssel, H.-M., Leimbach, M., Petschel-Held, G., and Schellnhuber, H.-J.: 1997, ‘The Tolerable Windows Approach to Integrated Assessments’, in Cameron, O. K., Fukuwatari, K., and Morita, T. (eds.), Climate Change and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)-Bridging the Gaps, Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan, pp. 401–430.
Toth, F. L., Petschel-Held, G., and Bruckner, T.: 1999, ‘Climate Change and Integrated Assessments: The Tolerable Windows Approach’, in Hacker, J. and Pelchen, A. (eds.), Goals and Economic Instruments for the Achievement of Global Warming Mitigation in Europe, Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 55–78.
WBGU (German Advisory Council on Global Change), 1995: Scenario for the Derivation of Global CO 2 Reduction Targets and Implementation Strategies, WBGU, Bremerhaven, Germany.
Weyant, J. (lead author) et al.: 1996, ‘Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: An Overview and Comparison of Approaches and Results’, in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., pp. 367–396.
Wigley, T. M. L., Richels, R., and Edmonds, J. A.: 1996, ‘Economic and Environmental Choices in the Stabilization of Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations’, Nature 379, 240–243.
WRI (World Resources Institute): 1992, World Resources 1992-93, Oxford University Press, New York, NY.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Toth, F.L., Bruckner, T., Füssel, HM. et al. Integrated Assessment of Long-term Climate Policies: Part 1 – Model Presentation. Climatic Change 56, 37–56 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1021332312119
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1021332312119