Abstract
It is hardly surprising that government budgets have always been widely debated inboth the political and academic arenas as public finances in general, and the budgetin particular, reflect the political and ideological colour of the government whichruns the state. No less inevitable are academic debates on budgetary issues giventhat economics is a multi-paradigmatic science. This background makes all the moremysterious the current complete consensus on the need for budgetary consolidationand the overwhelming acceptance of the `balanced budget' principle in politics as wellas in academic economics. In the paper, this position is questioned by producing a simple model of optimal public debt, sustainable deficits and optimal budgetary consolidation. Different possible trajectories of fiscal restriction and expansion – based on a Post-Keynesian and Rational Expectations paradigm alternatively – are then being empirically tested by comparing the German and British historical accounts of public finances over the past three decades.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alesina, A. and Perotti, R. (1997) 'Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects', in IMF Staff Papers No. 44, pp. 210–248.
Alesina, A., Perotti, R., and Tavares, J. (1998), 'The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments', in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity; No. 1, pp. 197–266.
Barro, R.J. (1996) Getting it Right. Markets and Choices in a Free Society. Cambridge, MA.
Baxter, M. and King, R.G. (1993) 'Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium', American Economic Review 83(3), 315–334.
Beck, N. and Katz, J.N. (1995) 'What to Do (and Not to Do) with Time Series and Cross Section Data', American Political Science Review 89, 634–647.
Bertola, G. and Drazen, A. (1993) 'Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity', American Economic Review 83, 11–26.
Bibow, J. (2001) 'On the “Burden” of German Unification. The Economic Consequences of Messrs. Waigel and Tietmeyer, Jerome Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Working Paper No. 328, Annandale-on-Hudson.
Blanchard, O., Chouraqui, J.-C., Hagemann, R.P., and Sator, N. (1990) The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: New Answers to an Old Question', in OECD Economic Studies No. 15, Paris.
Buchanan, J.M. (1987) 'Public Debt', in J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, and P. Newman (eds.), The New Palgrave, Vol. 3, pp. 1044–1047.
Buiter, W., Corsetti, G., and Roubini, N. (1993) 'Excessive Deficits: Sense and Nonsense in the Treaty of Maastricht', Economic Policy 8(16), 57–100.
Eichengreen, B. (1998) 'Comments and Discussion', Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1, pp. 255–260.
European Commission (2000) 'The Contribution of Public Finances to Growth and Employment: Improving Quality and Sustainability; Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament', Brussels.
Europäische Kommission (1995) 'Methode der Kommissionsdienststellen zur Konjunkturbereinigung von Haushaltssalden', in Europäische Wirtschaft, Nr. 60, Brussels, pp. 37–90.
Fitzgibbons, A. (2000) The Nature of Macroeconomics. Instability and Change in the Capitalist System. Cheltenham.
Giavazzi, F. and Pagano, M. (1990) 'Can Severe Fiscal Adjustments be Expansionary?', in O. Blanchard and S. Fischer (eds.), NBER Macroeconomic Annual. Cambridge, MA, pp. 75–116.
Gong, G., Greiner, A., and Semmler, W. (2000) 'Tragfähigkeit und Wachstumseffekte der Fiskalpolitik in der EU', in R. Neck, R. Holzmann, and F. Schneider (eds.), Staatsschulden am Ende?. Vienna, pp. 95–112.
Greiner, A. and Semmler, W. (1999) 'Staatsverschuldung, Wirtschaftswachstum und Nachhaltigkeit der Finanzpolitik in Deutschland'; in R. Neck and R. Holzmann (Hrsg.),Was wird aus Euroland?. Vienna, pp. 161–180.
Haavelmo, T. (1945) 'Multiplier Effects of a Balanced Budget', Econometrica 13, pp. 311f.
Heise, A. (1999) 'Unemployment in Germany and Britain - A Question of Micro-Rigidities or Macro-Obstruction?', in W. Filc and C. Köhler (eds.), Macroeconomic Causes of Unemployment: Diagnosis and Policy Recommendations. Berlin, pp. 245–270.
Holzmann, R., Hervé, Y., and Demmel, R. (1996) 'The Maastricht Fiscal Criteria: Required but Ineffective?', Empirica 23(1), 25–58.
Keynes, J.M. (1980) 'The Long-Term Problem of Full Employment (1943)', in D. Moggridge (ed.), Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, Vol. 27. London, pp. 320–325.
Lesch, H. (2000) 'Haushaltskonsolidierung in den ländern der Europäischen Union, IFSt-Schrift No. 382. Bonn.
Levine, R. and Zervos, S.J. (1993) 'What We Have Learned About Policy and Growth from Cross-Country Regressions', American Economic Review - Papers & Proceedings, 83(2), 426–430.
Marterbauer, M. and Walterkirchen, E. (1999) 'Macroeconomic Effects of the Policy of Budget Consolidation', Austrian Economic Quarterly 4(2), 105–110.
Miron, J.A. (1994) 'Empirical Methodology in Macroeconomics. Explaining the Success of Friedman and Schwartz's “A Monetary History of the United States 1867- 1960”', Journal of Monetary Economics 34, 17–25.
Musgrave, R.A. (1987) 'Public Finance', in J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, and P. Newman (eds.), The New Palgrave, Vol. 3. London, pp. 1055–1066.
Nordhaus, W. (1994) 'Policy Games: Coordination and Independence in Monetary and Fiscal Policies', Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 2, pp. 139–216.
OECD (1996) 'The Experiences with Fiscal Consolidation in OECD Countries', Economic Outlook 59, 33–41.
Palley, Th.I. (1993) 'Uncertainty, Expectations, and the Future', Journal of Post-Keynesian Economics, 16(1), 3–18.
Pasinetti, L.l. (1988) 'The Myth (or Folly) of the 3% Deficit/GDP Maastricht Parameter', Cambridge Journal of Economics 22, 103–116.
Schumpeter; J.A. (1918) Krise des Steuerstaates. Graz and Leipzig.
Smithin, J.N. (1989) 'The Composition of Government Expenditures and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy', in J. Pheby (ed.), New Directions in Post-Keynesian Economics. Aldershot, pp. 209–207.
Tanzi, V. and Zee, H.H. (1997) 'Fiscal Policy and Long-Run Growth', Staff Papers International Monetary Fund, 44(2), 179–209.
Williamson, J. (1993) 'Democracy and the “Washington Consensus”', World Development 21(8), 1993, 1329–1336.
Zee, H.H. (1988) 'The Sustainability and Optimality of Government Debt', Staff Papers International Monetary Fund 35(4), 658–685.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Heise, A. Optimal Public Debts, Sustainable Deficits, and Budgetary Consolidation. Empirica 29, 319–337 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1020803405156
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1020803405156