Spatial concentration and deconcentration of household types in the Amsterdam region Effects of three scenarios of new construction

Abstract

In the Netherlands, housing construction isvery much in the domain of public policy:quantity, quality and location of housing aresubject to public choice. In order to evaluatepossible locations and possible compositions ofthe housing construction in terms of dwellingtypes, the effects of alternative housingconstruction programmes have been simulatedusing a dynamic housing market simulation model– Socrates.With the same demographic and economicbackground, three housing constructionprogrammes were evaluated in terms of changesin concentration of certain household types(elderly, one-person, and low-incomehouseholds). The first one is a `continuationof current policy' variant. The second is the`demand' variant, in which housing constructionfollows housing demand. The third is arestrictive variant, in which housingconstruction follows demand, but within certainspatial restrictions.The results show that in the course of thecurrent and next decades a certainlevelling-off of existing concentrations willoccur. These tendencies are, however, onlymarginally affected by alternative housingconstruction programmes; demographic andeconomic trends have far greater impact on theconcentration of certain household types.