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Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

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Global Change and Human Health

Abstract

As climate is one factor determining the potential range of malaria, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission is based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using sixteen projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas currently limited by precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Stanford University, 205 E. 78th Apt. 19A, NY, NY, 10021, e-mail

    Jessica Hartman

  2. EPRI, 3412 Hillview Ave, Palo Alto, CA, 94304, e-mail

    Kristie Ebi

  3. Institute for Health Policy Studies, University of California at San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, 94118, e-mail

    K. John McConnell

  4. Stanford University, 685 Mariposa Ave #6, Mountain View, CA, 94041 tel

    Nathan Chan

  5. Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305-4023, e-mail

    John Weyant

Authors
  1. Jessica Hartman
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  2. Kristie Ebi
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  3. K. John McConnell
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  4. Nathan Chan
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  5. John Weyant
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Hartman, J., Ebi, K., McConnell, K.J. et al. Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios. Global Change & Human Health 3, 42–54 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019621231796

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019621231796

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