Skip to main content

An integrated urban development and ecological simulation model

Abstract

This paper develops an integrated strategy to model the urban development and ecological dynamics in the Central Puget Sound Region. This effort is part of the Puget Sound Regional Integrated Synthesis model (PRISM) – an interdisciplinary initiative at the University of Washington aiming to develop a dynamic and integrated understanding of the environmental and human systems in the Puget Sound. We describe a model that predicts the environmental stresses associated with urban development and related changes in land use and human activities under alternative demographic, economic, environmental, and policy scenarios. We build on UrbanSim, an existing urban simulation model developed by Waddell [42]. The principal urban actors, represented in the model as objects corresponding to businesses, households, developers, and governments, make choices about location of activities and land development. We extend the object properties and methods now implemented in the UrbanSim model to predict three types of human-induced environmental stressors: land conversion, resource use, and emissions. The core location model in UrbanSim will be revised from its current aggregate structure to one based on microsimulation, and from a zone description of space to one based on a high-resolution grid structure. We will use a spatially explicit process-based landscape modeling approach to replicate ecosystem processes and represent land use–cover interactions at the regional scale. The output of the urban ecological model will serve as the input to several biophysical models for hydrology, hillslope stability, water quality, atmosphere, and ecosystems. Ecological changes will feed back on the choices of both households and business locations, and availability of land and resources.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

References

  1. M. Alberti, Modeling the urban ecosystem: a conceptual framework, Environmental and Planning B: Planning and Design 26 (1999), forthcoming.

  2. W. Alonso, Location and Land Use (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1964).

    Google Scholar 

  3. Anas, Discrete choice theory, information theory and the multinomial logit and gravity models, Transportation Research 17B (1983) 13–23.

    Google Scholar 

  4. M. Batty, Cellular automata and urban form: a primer, Journal of the American Planning Association 63 (1997) 266–269.

    Google Scholar 

  5. M. Batty and Y. Xie, From cells to cities, Environmental and Planning B: Planning and Design 21 (1994) 531–548.

    Google Scholar 

  6. M.W. Berry and K.S. Minser, Distributed Land-Cover Change Simulation Using PVM and MPI, Land Use Modeling Workshop, USGS EROS Data Center, Sioux Falls, SD, 5–6 June 1997.

    Google Scholar 

  7. K.C. Clarke, L. Gaydos and S. Hoppen, A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area, Environment and Planning B 24 (1997).

  8. R. Conway, The Washington projection and simulation model: a regional interindustry econometric model, International Regional Science Review 13 (1990) 141–165.

    Google Scholar 

  9. R. Costanza, L. Wainger and N. Bockstael, in: Integrating Economics and Ecological Indicators, eds. J.W. Milon and J.F. Shogren (Praeger, Westport, CT1995).

    Google Scholar 

  10. H. Couclelis, Cellular worlds: a framework for modeling micro- macro dynamics, Environmental and Planning A 17 (1985) 585–596.

    Google Scholar 

  11. H. Couclelis, From cellular automata to urban models: new principles for model development and implementation, Environmental and Planning B 24 (1997) 165–174.

    Google Scholar 

  12. D. DiPasquale and W. Wheaton, Urban Economics and Real Estate Markets (Princeton Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1996).

    Google Scholar 

  13. M.H. Echenique, A.D. Flowerdew, J.D. Hunt, T.R. Mayo, I.J. Skidmore and D.C. Simmonds, The MENPLAN models of Bilbao, Leeds and Dortmund, Transport Reviews 10 (1990) 309–322.

    Google Scholar 

  14. B. Ellickson, An alternative test of the hedonic theory of housing markets, Journal of Urban Economics 9 (1981) 56–79.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. H.C. Fitz, E.B. DeBellevue, R. Costanza, R. Boumann, T. Maxwell and L. Wainger, Development of a general ecosystem model for a range of scales and ecosystems, Ecological Modeling 88 (1996) 263–295.

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  16. J. Geoghegan, L.A. Wainger and N.E. Bockstael, Spatial landscape indices in a hedonic framework: an ecological economics analysis using GIS, Ecological Economics 23 (1997) 251–264.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. D.G. Green, Simulated effects of fire, dispersal and spatial pattern on competition within vegetation mosaics, Vegetation 82 (1989) 139–153.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. D.G. Green, in: Complex Systems - From Biology to Computation, eds. D.G. Green and T.J. Bossomaier (IOS Press, Amsterdam, 1993).

    Google Scholar 

  19. D.G. Green, Connectivity and complexity in ecological systems, Pacific Conservation Biology 1 (1994) 194–200.

    Google Scholar 

  20. D.G. Green, A. Tridgell and A.M. Gill, Interactive simulation of bushfire spread in heterogeneous fuel, Math. Comput. Modelling 13 (1990) 57–66.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. P. Hogeweg and B. Hesper, in: Acanthaster and the Coral Reef: a Theoretical Perspective, ed. R.H. Bradbury (Springer, Berlin, 1990).

    Google Scholar 

  22. T.J. Kim, Integrated Urban System Modeling: Theory and Practice (Martinus Nijhoff, Norwell, MA, 1989).

    Google Scholar 

  23. J.D. Landis, BASS II: A New Generation of Metropolitan Simulation Models (Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California at Berkeley, 1992).

    Google Scholar 

  24. J.D. Landis, Imagining land use futures: applying the California urban futures model, Journal of the American Planning Association 61 (1995) 438–457.

    Google Scholar 

  25. J.D. Landis and M. Zhang, The Second Generation of the California Urban Futures Model, Model Logic and Theory, Part I (1998).

  26. W. Leontief, Input-Output Economics (Oxford University Press, New York, 1967).

    Google Scholar 

  27. R.L. Mackett, MASTER Model, Micro-Analytical Simulation of Transport, Employment and Residence, Report SR 237 (Transport and Road Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, 1990).

    Google Scholar 

  28. R.L. Mackett, Micro Simulation Modeling of Travel Demand and Location Processes: Testing and Further Development, Report to the Transport and Road Research Laboratory (University College London, London, 1992).

    Google Scholar 

  29. F. Martinez, The bid-choice land use model: an integrated framework, Environment and Planning A 24 (1992) 871–885.

    Google Scholar 

  30. M.J. McDonnel and S.T.A. Pickett, Ecosystem structure and function along urban-rural gradients: an unexploited opportunity for ecology, Ecology 71 (1990) 1231–1237.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. D. McFadden, in: Spatial Interaction Theory and Planning Models, eds. A. Karlqvist, L. Lundqvist, F. Snickars and J.W. Wiebull (North Holland, Amsterdam, 1978).

    Google Scholar 

  32. R. O'Neill, D.L. DeAngelis, J.B. Wide and T.H.F. Allen, A Hierarchical Concept of Ecosystems (Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1986).

    Google Scholar 

  33. S. Openshaw, Human systems modelling as a new grand challenge area in science: what has happened to the science in the social science?, Environment and Planning A 27 (1995) 159–164.

    Google Scholar 

  34. M. Phipps and A. Langlois, Spatial dynamics, cellular automata, and parallel processing computers, Environmental and Planning B 24 (1997) 193–204.

    Google Scholar 

  35. S.T.A. Pickett, I.C. Burke, V.H. Dale, J.R. Gosz, R.G. Lee, S.W. Pacala and M. Shachak, in: Integrated Regional Models, eds. P.M. Grogffman and G.E. Likens (Chapman & Hall, New York, 1994).

    Google Scholar 

  36. S.T.A. Pickett, I.C. Burke, S.E. Dalton, T.W. Foresman, J.M. Grove and R. Rowntree, A conceptual framework for the study of human ecosystems in urban areas, Urban Ecosystems 1 (1997) 185–199.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. E.W. Riebsame, W.B. Meyer and B.L. Turner II, Modeling land use and cover as part of global environmental change, Special Issue, Climatic Change 28 (1994) 45–65.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. F.H. Sklar and R. Costanza, in: Quantitative Methods in Landscape Ecology, Springer-Verlag Ecological Studies, Vol. 82, eds. M.G. Turner and R. Gardner (Springer, New York, NY, 1991).

    Google Scholar 

  39. W.R. Tobler, Smooth pycnophylactic interpolation for geographic regions, Journal of the American Statistical Association 74 (1979) 519–530.

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  40. M. Turner, Landscape ecology: the effect of pattern on process, Annual Review Ecological Systems 20 (1989) 171–197.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. M. Turner and R. Gardner, Quantitative Methods in Landscape Ecology (Springer, New York, 1991).

    Google Scholar 

  42. P.A. Waddell, A behavioral simulation model for metropolitan policy analysis and planning: residential location and housing market components of UrbanSim, Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 27 (2000) 247–263.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. P.A. Waddell, Simulating the Effects of Metropolitan Growth Management Strategies, Prepared for Presentation at the 1998 Conference of the Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning, November 1998, Pasadena, California (1998).

  44. P.A. Waddell, Monitoring and Simulating Land Capacity at the Parcel Level, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy Conference on Land Capacity Monitoring, Seattle, Washington (1998).

  45. P.A. Waddell and M. Alberti, Integration of an urban simulation model and an urban ecosystems model, in: Proceedings of the International Conference on Modeling Geographical and Environmental Systems with Geographical Information Systems, Hong Kong, 1998.

  46. M. Wegener, Description of the Dortmund Region Model, Working Paper 8, Dortmund, Institute für Raumplanung (1983).

    Google Scholar 

  47. M. Wegener, Operational urban models: state of the art, Journal-of the-American-Planning-Association 60 (1994) 17–30.

    Google Scholar 

  48. M. Wegener, in: LandUse Modeling Conference Proceedings, 19–21 February, 1995, ed. G.A. Shunk, Report DOT-T-96–09 (US Department of Transportation, Washington, DC, 1995).

    Google Scholar 

  49. M. Wegener and K. Spiekermann, The potential of microsimulation for urban modelling, in: Proceedings of the International Workshop on Application of Computers in Urban Planning, Kobe University, Kobe, 1997, pp. 129–143.

    Google Scholar 

  50. M. Wegener, P. Waddell and I. Salomon, Sustainable lifestyles? Microsimulation of household formation, housing choice and travel behaviour, in: Proceedings of the National Science Foundation- European Science Foundation Conference on Social Change and Sustainable Transportation, Berkeley, California, 1999.

  51. R. White and G. Engelen, Cellular automata as the basis of integrated dynamic modeling, Environment and Planning B 24 (1997) 235–246.

    Google Scholar 

  52. R. White, G. Engelen and I. Uljee, The use of constrained cellular automata for high-resolution modeling of urban land use dynamics, Environment and Planning B 24 (1997) 323–343.

    Google Scholar 

  53. L. Wingo, Transportation and Urban Land (The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD, 1961).

    Google Scholar 

  54. F. Wu, An experiment on the generic polycentricity of urban growth in a cellular automata city, Environment and Planning B 25 (1998) 731–752.

    Google Scholar 

  55. F. Wu, Simulating urban encroachment on rural land with fuzzy-logic controlled cellular automata in a geographical information system, Journal of Environmental Management 53 (1998) 293–308.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. F. Wu and C.J. Webster, Simulation of land development through the integration of cellular automata and multicriteria evaluation, Environmental and Planning B 25 (1998) 103–126.

    Google Scholar 

  57. J.G. Wu and S.A. Levin, A patch-based spatial modeling approach: conceptual framework and simulation scheme, Ecological Modelling 101 (1997) 325–346.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  58. J.G. Wu and O.L. Loucks, From balance of nature to hierarchical patch dynamics: a paradigm shift in ecology, Quarterly Review of Biology 70 (1995) 439–466.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Alberti, M., Waddell, P. An integrated urban development and ecological simulation model. Integrated Assessment 1, 215–227 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019140101212

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019140101212

Keywords

  • Land Cover
  • Cellular Automaton
  • Cellular Automaton
  • Urban Ecosystem
  • Vacancy Rate