Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Our forestry prospect: the past recycled or a surprise-rich future?

  • Published:
Environmentalist Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

NORMAN MYERS: An honorary visiting fellow at Green College. He is an independent scientist and consultant working in environment and development.Like most other environmental and economic sectors, forestry worldwide looks set to encounter a growing number of surprises in the sense of major divergencies from established trends. These surprises will be largely environmental or economic or both at once. Unless we do a better job of identifying them ahead of time, these surprises will often be of a scale to overwhelm our anticipatory and preventive capacities. Indeed and as this paper demonstrates, the most likely as well as the most taxing forestry problems of the future will often be the ones we have scarcely thought of. Fortunately, the same applies to forestry opportunities. In these circumstances, there is a premium on not only supplying answers to recognized questions but on raising entirely new questions.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ackerman, F. (1996) Why Do We Recycle? Markets, Values, and Public Policy. Washington, DC: Island Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Adger, W.N., Brown, K., Cervigni, R. and Moran, D. (1995) Total economic value of forests in Mexico. Ambio 24, 286-96.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alexandratos, N. (ed.) (1995) World Agriculture: Towards 2010. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization.

    Google Scholar 

  • Apps, M.J. and Price, D.T. (eds) (1996) Forest Ecosystems, Forest Management and the Global Carbon Cycle. Berlin: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Apps, M.J., Price, D.T. and Wisniewski, J. (eds) (1995) Boreal Forests and Global Change. Dordrecht: Kluwer Acade-mic Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Atchison, J.E. (1994) Present Status and Future Prospects for Use of Non-wood Plant Fibers for Paper Grade Pulps. Tucson: Luews Ventana Canyon.

    Google Scholar 

  • Auclair, A.N.D. and Carter, T.B. (1993) Forest wildfires as a recent source of CO2 at mid-high northern latitudes. Can. J. Forest Res. 23, 1528-36.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baker, J.T. and Allen, L.H., Jr (1994) Assessment of the impact of rising carbon dioxide and other potential cli-mate changes on vegetation. Environ. Pollut. 83, 223-35.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Barten, R. (1995) Crop Protection in Forestry: Forestry and Forest Products International 1996. London: Sterloing Publications Ltd.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bazzaz, F.A. (1990) The response of natural ecosystems to the rising global CO2 levels. Ann. Rev. Ecol. System. 21, 167-96.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bilsborrow, R. and Hogan, D. (1997) Population and Tropical Deforestation. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bochuan, H. (1991) China on the Edge: The Crisis of Ecology and Development. San Francisco: China Books and Pe-riodicals.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bolton, A.J. (1994) Natural fibres for plastic reinforcement. Materials Technol. 9, 12-20.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bormann, F.H. (1985) Air pollution and forests: an ecosystem perspective. BioScience 35(7), 434.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bright, C. (1997) Tracking the Ecology of Climate Change. In State of the world 1997 (L.R. Brown, J. Abramovitz, C. Bright, G. Gardner, A. McGinn, M. Renner, D. Roodman and L. Starke) pp. 78-94. New York: W.W. Norton.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown, K. and Pearce, D.W. (eds) (1994) The Causes of Tropical Deforestation. London: University College London Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cassells, D.S. (1995) Global Forestry Trends. Washington, DC: The World Bank.

    Google Scholar 

  • Casti, J.L. (1994) Complexification: Explaining a Paradoxical World Through the Science of Surprise. New York: Harper Collins.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chopra, K. (1993) The value of non-timber forest products: an estimation for tropical deciduous forests in India. Econ. Bot. 47, 251-7.

    Google Scholar 

  • Constantino, L. and Kishor, N. (1993) Forest Management and Competing Land Uses: An Economic Analysis for Costa Rica. Washington, DC: The World Bank.

    Google Scholar 

  • Daly, H.E. (1991) Steady State Economics, 2nd edn. Washington, DC: Island Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis, M.B. and Zabinski, C. (1992) Changes in geographical range resulting from greenhouse warming: effects on biodiversity in forests. In Global warming and biological diversity (R.L. Peters and T.E. Lovejoy, eds) pp. 297-308. New Haven: Yale University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • De Groot, R.S. (1994) Environmental functions and the eco-nomic value of natural ecosystems. In Investing in nat-ural capital: the ecological economics approach to sustainability (A.N. Jansson, M. Hammer and R.A. Costanza, eds) pp. 151-68. Washington, DC: Is-land Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dixon, R.K., Brown, S., Houghton, R.A., Solomon, A.M., Trexler, M.C. and Wisniewski, J. (1994) Carbon polls and flux of global forest ecosystems. Science 263, 185-90.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dudley, N., Jenrenaud, J.-P. and Sullivan, F. (1995) Bad Harvest: The Timber Trade and the Degradation of Global Forests. London: Earthscan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Durning, A.T. (1994) Redesigning the forest economy. In State of the world 1994 (L. R. Brown, A. Durning, C. Flavin, H. French, N. Lenssen, M. Lowe, A. Misch, S. Postel, M. Renner, L. Starke, P. Weber and J. Young) pp. 22-40. New York: W.W. Norton.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ehrlich, P.R. (1986) The Machinery of Nature. New York: Simon and Schuster.

    Google Scholar 

  • Faber, M., Manstetten, R. and Proops, J.O.R. (1992) Hu mankind and the environment: an anatomy of surprise and ignorance. Environ. Values 1, 217-42.

    Google Scholar 

  • Faeth, P., Cort, C. and Livernash, R. (1994) Evaluating the Carbon Sequestration Benefits of Forestry Projects in Developing Countries. Washington, DC: World Re sources Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fallwell, K. (1996) Global forestry outlook. Timber Trade J. 22 April.

  • Flannigan, M.D. and Van Wagner, C.E. (1991) Climate change and wildfire in Canada. Can. J. Forest Res. 21, 66-72.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fleming, R.A. and Wolney, W.J.A. (1995) Effects of climate change on insect defoliator population processes in Canada's boreal forest: some plausible scenarios. Water Air Soil Pollut. 82, 445-54.

    Google Scholar 

  • Food and Agriculture Organization (1993) Forestry Statistics Today for Tomorrow. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization.

    Google Scholar 

  • Grieg-Gran, M. (ed.) (1996) Towards a Substainable Paper Cycle. London: International Institute for Environment and Development.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guinness Publications (1995) They Got it Wrong: The Gu-inness Dictionary of Regrettable Quotations. London: Guinness Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hagen, J.M. and Johnston, D.W. (eds) (1992) Ecology and Conservation of Neotropical Migrant Land Birds. Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hassol, S.J. and Katzenberger, J. (eds) (1995) Anticipating Global Change Surprises. Aspen: Aspen Global Change Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hodges, D.G., Cubbage, F.W. and Regens, J.L. (1992) Re-gional forest migrations and potential economic effects. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 11, 8-14.

    Google Scholar 

  • Holling, C.S. (1991) The Role of Forest Insects in Structuring the Boreal Landscape. In A Systems Analysis of the Global Boreal Forest (H.H. Shugart, R. Leemans and G.B. Bonan, eds) Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Holling, C.S. (1995) What barriers? What bridges? In Barriers and bridges to the renewal of ecosystems and institutions (L.H. Gunderson, C.S. Holling and S.S. Light, eds) pp. 14-16. New York: Columbia University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Houghton, R.A. and Woodwell, G.M. (1989) Global climate change. Sci. Am. 260, 36-44.

    Google Scholar 

  • Houghton, J.T., Filho, L.G.M., Callander, B.A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A. and Maskell, K. (eds) (1996) Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hulme, M. and Viner, D. (1995) A Climate Change Scenario for Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Tropi-cal Rain Forests. Washington, DC: World Wildlife Fund.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jackson, M.B. and Black, C.R. (eds) (1993) Interacting Stresses on Plants in a Changing Climate. London: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jardine, K. (1994) The Carbon Bomb: Climate Change and the Fate of the Northern Boreal Forests. Amsterdam: Stich-ting Greenpeace Council.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jepma, C.J. (1995) Tropical Deforestation: A Socio-economic Approach. London: Earthscan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kane, H. (1996) Shifting to Sustainable Industries. In State of the World 1996 (L.R. Brown, J. Abramivitz, C. Bright, C. Flavin, G. Gardner, H. Kane, A. Platt, S. Postel, D. Roodman, A. Sachs and L. Starke) pp. 152-67. New York: W.W. Norton.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kates, R.W. and Clark, W.C. (1996) Environmental surprise: expecting and unexpected. Environment 38(2), 6-11, 28-34.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Kauman, W.G., Gerard, J., Hu, J.G. and Wang, H.J. (1995) Processing of eucalyptus. Commonwealth Forestry Rev. 74, 2-10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kerr, J.B. and McElroy, C.T. (1993) Evidence for large up-ward trends of ultraviolet-B radiation linked to ozone depletion. Science 262, 1032-4.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kimmins, J. P. and Lavender, D. P. (1992) Ecosystem-level changes that may be expected in a changing global cli mate. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 11, 8.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kurz, W.A. and Apps, M.J. (1995) Retrospective assessment of carbon flows in Canadian boreal forests. In Forest ecosystems, forest management and the global carbon cycle (M.J. Apps and D.T. Price, eds) pp. 173-82. Berlin: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lenssen, O. and Roodman, D.M. (1995) Making better buildings. In State of the World 1995 (L.R. Brown, D. Denniston, C. Flavin, H. French, H. Kane, N. Lenssen, M. Renner, D. Roodman, M. Ryan, A. Sachs, L. Starke, P. Weber and J. Young) pp. 95-112. New York: W.W. Norton.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lewis, G. (1979) Natural vegetable fibres as reinforcement in cement sheets. J. Concrete Res. 31(107), 104-8.

    Google Scholar 

  • Litfin, K.T. (1994) Ozone Discourses: Science and Politics in Global Environmental Cooperation. New York: Columbia University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • McNeely, J.A. (1996) Adapting to Change: Tropical Forests in the 21st Century. Gland International Union for Con-servation of Nature and Natural Resources.

  • Makhijani, A. and Gurney, K.R. (1995) Mending the Ozone Hole: Science, Technology, and Policy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meher-Homji, V.M. (1992) Probable impact of deforestation on hydrological processes. In Tropical forests and cli mate: (N. Myers, ed.) pp. 163-74. Dordrecht: Kluwer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mettem, C.J., Gordon, J.A. and Bedding, B. (1996) Structural Timber Composites. High Wycombe: Timber Research and Development Association.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mooney, H.A., Winner, W.E. and Pell, E.J. (eds) (1991) Re sponse of Plants to Multiple Stresses. New York: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Myers, N. (1986) Economics and ecology in the international arena: the phenomenon of ``linked linkages''. Ambio 15, 296-300.

    Google Scholar 

  • Myers, N. (1988) Tropical deforestation and climatic change. Environ. Conservat. 15(4), 293-8.

    Google Scholar 

  • Myers, N. (ed.) (1992) Tropical Forests and Climate. Dordrecht: Kluwer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Myers, N. (1993) The question of linkages in environment and development. BioScience 43(5), 302-10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Myers, N. (1995a) Tropical deforestation: population, poverty and biodiversity. In The economics and ecology of bio-diversity decline: the forces driving global change: (T.M. Swanson, ed.) pp. 111-22. Cambridge: Cam bridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Myers, N. (1995b) Environmental unknowns. Science 269, 358-60.

    Google Scholar 

  • Myers, N. (1996a) Two key challenges for biodiversity: dis-continuities and synergisms. Biodiversity Conservat. 5, 1025-34.

    Google Scholar 

  • Myers, N. (1996b) The biodiversity crisis and the future of evolution. The Environmentalist 16, 37-47.

    Google Scholar 

  • Myers, N. and Brown, N. (1997) The Five-year Follow-up to the Rio Earth Summit: The Role of Major U.S. Foun-dations. Report to the Rockefeller, MacArthur, Kellogg and Ford Foundations.

  • Myers, N. and Goreau, T.J. (1992) Tropical forests and the greenhouse effect: a management response. In Tropical forests and climate (N. Myers, ed.) pp. 215-26. Dordrecht: Kluwer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Naidu, S.L., Sullivan, J.H., Temamura, A.H and Delucia, E.H. (1993) The effects of ultraviolet-B radia-tion on photosynthesis of different aged needles in field-grown loblolly pine. Tree Physiol. 12, 151-62.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Nicoll, S. (1993) Genetic improvement of cherry for farm woodlands. Q. J. Forestry 87, 3.

    Google Scholar 

  • Odum, E.P. (1993) Ecology and Our Endangered Life-support Systems. Sunderland, MA: Sinauer Associ ates.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oechel, W.C., Hastings, S.J., Vourlitis, G., Jenkins, M, Riechers, G. and Grulke, N. (1993) Recent change of Arctic tundra ecosystems from a net carbon dioxide sink to a source. Nature 361, 520-3.

    Google Scholar 

  • Panayotou, T. and Ashton, P.S. (1992) Not by Timber Alone: Economics and Ecology for Sustaining Tropical Forests. Washington, DC: Island Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Peters, R.L. and Lovejoy, T.E. (eds) (1992) Global Warming and Biological Diversity. New Haven: Yale University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pimentel, D., McNair, M., Buck, L., Pimentel, M. and Kamil, J. (1997) The value of forests to world food se-curity. Human Ecol. in press.

  • Pimm, S.L., Russell, G.J., Gittleman, J.L. and Brooks, T.M. (1995) The future of biodiversity. Science 269, 347-50.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pittock, A.B. (1987) Forests beyond 2000-effects of atmo-spheric change. Austr. Forestry 50, 205-15.

    Google Scholar 

  • Porter, J. (1995) The effects of climate change on the agri-cultural environment for crop insect pests with particu-lar reference to the European corn borer. In Insects in a changing environment (R. Harrington and N.E. Stork, eds) pp. 93-123. London: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rice, T. (ed.) (1995) Out of the Woods: Reducing Wood Con-sumption to Save the World's Forests. London: Friends of the Earth.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rice, T. (1996) Changes in Forestry Policies and Practices London: Environmental Research Ltd.

    Google Scholar 

  • Richardson, S.D. (1990) Forests and Forestry in China: Changing Patterns of Resource Development. Washington, DC: Island Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Roan, S.L. (1989) Ozone Crisis: The 15-year Evolution of a Sudden Global Emergency. New York: Wiley and Sons.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robins, M. and Roberts, S. (1996) Rethinking Paper Con-sumption. London: International Institute for Environ ment and Development.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robinson, R. (1996) The Great Book of Hemp: The Complete Guide to the Environmental, Commercial and Medicinal Uses of the World's Most Extraordinary Plant. Rochester: Inner Traditions International.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rodhe, H. (1994) Regional budgets of sulfur and nitrogen in the tropics. In The chemistry of the atmosphere: its im pacts on global change. (K.J.G. Calvert, ed.) pp. 317-26. Oxford: Blackwell Scientific Publications.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rodhe, H., Galloway, J. and Zhao, D. (1992) Acidification in South-East Asia-prospects for the coming decades. Ambio 21, 148-50.

    Google Scholar 

  • Root, T.K. and Schneider, S.H. (1995) Energy and climate research strategies and implications. Science 269, 334-41

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosillo-Calle, F., de Rezende, M.A.A., Furtado, P. and Hall, D.O. (1995) Brazil Charcoal: Industrial Use and Sustainable Production from Plantations and Forests. London: Intermediate Technology Development Group Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Roulac, J.W. (1995) Industrial Hemp: Practical Products-Paper to Fabric to Cosmetics. Ojai: Hemptech.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ryan, J. (1991) Reforming forestry. In State of the world 1991 (L.R. Brown, A. Durning, C. Flavin, H. French, J. Ja cobson, N. Lenssen, M. Lowe, S. Postel, M. Renner, J. Ryan, L. Starke and J. Young) pp. 74-92. New York: W.W. Norton

    Google Scholar 

  • Ryan, M. and Flavin C. (1995) Facing China's Limits. In State of the World 1995 (L.R. Brown, D. Denniston, C. Flavin, H. French, H. Kane, N. Lenssen, M. Renner, D. Roodman, M. Ryan, A. Sachs, L. Starke, P. Weber and J. Young) pp. 113-31. New York: W.W. Norton.

    Google Scholar 

  • Salati, E. and Nobre, C.A. (1992) Possible climatic impacts of tropical deforestation. In Tropical forests and climate (N. Myers, ed.) pp. 177-96. Dordrecht: Kluwer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S.H. and Root, T.L. (1996) Ecological implications of climate change will include surprises. Biodiversity Conservat. 5, 1109-19.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, S.H. and Turner, B.L., II (1995) Anticipating global change surprise. In Elements of change 1994 (S.J. Hassol and J. Katzenberger, eds) pp. 130-45. Aspen: Aspen Global Change Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Searles, P. S., Caldwell, M.M. and Winter, K. (1995) The response of five tropical dicotyledon species to solar ultraviolet-B radiation. Am. J. Bot. 82, 4.

    Google Scholar 

  • Secrett, C.M. (1992) Adapting to Climate Change: A Strategy for the Tropical Forest Sector. London: International Institute for Environment and Development.

    Google Scholar 

  • Skelly, J. M. (1992) Global perspective on forest health issues: an attempt to discern fact from fiction. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 11, 8.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, M. (1995) The paper industry: agenda for reform. In Cut waste, not trees (A. Solthani and P. Whitney, eds) pp. 13-16. San Francisco: Rainforest Action Network.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, T.M., Halpin, P.N., Shugart, H.A. and Secrett, C.M. (1995) Global forests. In As climate changes: inter national impacts and implications (K.M. Strzepek and J.B. Smith, eds) pp. 146-79. New York: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Solomon, A.M. and Shugart, H.H. (eds) (1992) Vegetation Dynamics and Global Change. London: Chapman & Hall.

    Google Scholar 

  • Soltani, A. (1995) A call to action: reducing U.S. demand for wood. In Cut waste, not trees (A. Soltani and P. Whitney, eds) pp. 7-12 San Francisco: Rainforest Action Network.

    Google Scholar 

  • Southgate, D. (1994) Economic progress and habitat conser-vation in Latin America. In The economics of ecology and biodiversity decline: the forces driving global change: (T.M. Swanson, ed.) 91-8. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sullivan, J. H. and Teramura, A.H. (1992) The effects of ul traviolet-B radiation on loblolly pine 2: growth of field grown seedlings. Trees 6, 115-20.

    Google Scholar 

  • Svedin, U. and Aniansson, B. (eds) (1987) Surprising Futures: Notes from an International Workshop on Long-term World Development. Stockholm: Swedish Council for Planning and Coordination of Research.

  • Swamy, R.N. (ed.) (1988) Natural Fiber Reinforced Cement and Concrete. Concrete Technology and Design, Vol. 5.

  • Swanson, T.M. (ed.) (1995) The Economics and Ecology of Biodiversity Decline: The Forces Driving Global Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Szeich, J.M. and Macdonald, G.M. (1995) Recent white spruce dynamics at the subArctic alpine tree line of North-Western Canada. J. Ecol. 83, 873-5.

    Google Scholar 

  • Teramura, A.H. (1986) Overview of our current state of knowledge of UV-B effects on plants. In Effects of changes in stratospheric ozone and global climate, Vol. 1: overview (J.G. Titus, ed.) pp. 165-73. Washington, DC: US Environmental Protection Agency.

    Google Scholar 

  • Terborgh, J.W. (1989) Where Have All the Birds Gone? Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Trexler, M.C. (1991) Minding the Carbon Store: Weighing US Forestry Strategies to Slow Global Warming. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations (1992) AGENDA 21 of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. New York: United Nations.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, E.O. (1992) The Diversity of Life. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodwell, G.M. (1995) Biotic feedbacks from the warming of the earth. In Biotic feedbacks in the global climate sys tem: will the warming feed to warming? (G.M. Woodwell and F.T. MacKenzie, eds) pp. 3-21. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodwell, G.M. and MacKenzie, F.T. (eds) (1995) Biotic Feedbacks in the Global Climate System: Will the Warming Feed to Warming? New York: Oxford Uni versity Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodwell, G.M., MacKenzie, F.T., Houghton, R.A., Apps, M.J., Gorham, E. and Davidson, E.A. (1995) Will the warming speed the warming? In Biotic feedbacks in the global climate system: will the warming feed to warming? (G.M. Woodwell and F.T. MacKenzie, eds) pp. 393-412. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • World Business Council for Sustainable Development (1996) A Changing Future for Paper. Geneva: World Business Council for Sustainable Development.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wyman, R.L. (ed.) (1991) Global Climate Change and Life on Earth. New York: Routledge, Chapman & Hall.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Green College, Oxford University, Oxford, OX2 6HG, UK

    Norman Myers

Authors
  1. Norman Myers
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Myers, N. Our forestry prospect: the past recycled or a surprise-rich future?. The Environmentalist 17, 233–247 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1018541125667

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1018541125667

Keywords

Search

Navigation