Abstract
Controversy persists over the link between turnout and the likelihood of success of Democratic candidates (e.g., DeNardo, 1980, 1986; Zimmer, 1985; Tucker and Vedlitz, 1986; Piven and Cloward, 1988; Texeira, 1992; Radcliff, 1994, 1995; Erikson, 1995a, b). We argue that the authors in this debate have largely been talking past one another because of a failure to distinguish three quite different questions. The first question is: “Are low turnout voters more likely to vote Democratic than high turnout voters?” The second question is: “Should we expect that elections in which turnout is higher are ones in which we can expect Democrats to have done better?” The third question is the counterfactual: “If turnout were to have increased in some given election, would Democrats have done better?” We show the logical independence of the first two questions from one another and from the third, and argue that previous researchers have failed to recognize this logical independence – sometimes thinking they were answering question three when in fact they were answering either question one or question two. Reviewing previous research, we find that the answer to the first question once was YES but, for more recent elections at the presidential level, now appears to be NO, while, for congressional and legislative elections, the answer to the second question appears generally to be NO. However, the third question is essentially unanswerable absent an explicit model of why and how turnout can be expected to increase, and/or analyses of individual level panel data. Thus, the cross-sectional and pooled data analyses of previous research are of almost no value in addressing this third question.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.
References
Alt, J. (1994). The impact of the Voting Rights Act on black and white voter registration in the South. In C. Davidson and B. Grofman (Eds.), Quiet revolution in the South: The impact of the Voting Rights Act, 1965–1990, 351–377. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Bennett, S.E. and Resnick, D. (1990). The implications for nonvoting for democracy in the United States. American Journal of Political Science 34: 771–802.
Brians, C. and Grofman, B. (1999). When registration barriers fall, who votes?: An empirical test of a rational choice model. Public Choice 99: 161–176.
Burnham, W.D. (1965). The changing shape of the American political universe. American Political Science Review 59: 7–28.
Burnham, W.D. (1982). The current crisis in American politics. New York: Oxford University Press.
Calvert, J.W. (1996). The National Voter Registration Act: Will it make a difference? Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, California, 29 August–1 September.
Campbell, A., Converse, P.E., Miller, W.E. and Stokes, D.E. (1960). The American voter. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Cox, G. (1988).Closeness and turnout:Amethodological note. Journal of Politics 50: 768–775.
Cox, G. and Munger, M. (1989). Contributions, expenditures, turnout: The 1982 U.S. House Elections. American Political Science Review 83: 217–231.
DeNardo, J. (1980). Turnout and the vote: The joke is on the Democrats. American Political Science Review 74: 406–420.
DeNardo, J. (1986). Does heavy turnout help Democrats in presidential elections? American Political Science Review 80: 1298–1304.
Erikson, R.S. (1995a). State turnout and presidential voting. American Politics Quarterly 23: 387–396.
Erikson, R.S. (1995b). Pooling and statistical control: A reply to Radcliff. American Politics Quarterly 23: 404–408.
Fenton, J.H. (1979). Turnout and the twoparty vote. Journal of Politics 41: 229–234.
Gant, M.M. and Lyons W. (1993). Democratic theory, nonvoting, and public policy – the 1972–1988 presidential elections. American Politics Quarterly April: 22.
Glazer, A. and Grofman, B. (1992). A positive relationship between turnout and plurality does not refute the rational voter model. Quality and Quantity 26: 85–93.
Grofman, B. (1996). Downsian political economy. In R. Goodin and H.D. Klingemann (Eds.), New handbook of political science. London: Oxford University Press.
Grofman, B., Collet, C. and Griffin, R. (1995). Do Democrats do better in higher turnout elections? Prepared for delivery at the Annual Meeting of the Public Choice Society, Long Beach, California, 24–26 March.
Grofman, B., Collet, C. and Griffin, R. (1999). Analyzing the turnoutcompetitiveness link with aggregate data. Public Choice, forthcoming.
Hanks, C. and Grofman, B. (1999). Turnout in gubernatorial and senatorial primary and general elections in the South, 1922–90: A rational choice model of the effects of shortrun and longrun electoral competition on turnout. Public Choice, forthcoming.
Hill, K.Q. and Leighley, J.E. (1996). Political parties and class mobilization in contemporary United States elections. American Journal of Political Science 40: 787–804.
Key, V.O. (1958). Politics, parties and pressure groups, 4th ed. New York: Thomas Y. Crowell Co.
Knack, S. (1997). The reappearing American voter: Why did turnout rise in '92? Electoral Studies 16: 17–32.
Leighley, J.E. and Nagler, J. (1992). Socioeconomic class bias in turnout, 1964–1988: The voters remain the same. American Political Science Review 86: 725–736.
Miller, A. and Wattenberg, M.P. (1982). Turnout and the vote: Commonsense makes good sense. Unpublished paper.
Pacek, A. and Radcliff, B. (1995). Turnout and the vote for LeftofCentre parties: A crossnational analysis. British Journal of Political Science 25: 137–143.
Piven, F.F. and Cloward, R.A. (1988). Why Americans don't vote. New York: Pantheon Books.
Powell, G.B. (1980). Voting turnout in thirty democracies: Partisan, legal and socioeconomic influences. In R. Rose (Ed.), Electoral participation. Beverly Hills: Sage.
Radcliff, B. (1994). Turnout and the Democratic vote. American Politics Quarterly 22: 259–276.
Radcliff, B. (1995). Turnout and the vote revisited: A reply to Erikson. American Politics Quarterly 23: 397–403.
Rosenstone, S.J. and Wolfinger, R.E. (1978). The effects of registration laws on voter turnout. American Political Science Review 72: 22–45.
Shields, T.G. and Goidel, R.K. (1997). Participation rates, socioeconomic class biases and congressional elections. American Journal of Political Science 41: 683–691.
Texeira, R. (1992). The disappearing American voter. Washington, DC: Brookings.
Tucker, H.J. and Vedlitz, A. (1986). Does heavy turnout help Democrats in presidential elections? American Political Science Review 80: 1291–1298.
Verba, S. and Nie, N.H. (1972). Participation in America. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Verba, S., Schlozman, K.L. and Brady, H.E. (1995). Voice and equality: Civic voluntarism in American politics. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Wolfinger, R.E. and Rosenstone, S.J. (1980). Who votes? New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Wolfinger, R.E., Rosenstone, S.J. and McIntosh, R.A. (1981). Presidential and congressional voters compared. American Politics Quarterly 9: 245–256.
Zimmer, T.A. (1985). Political competition, voter turnout and party vote. Social Science Journal 22: 103–110.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Grofman, B., Owen, G. & Collet, C. Rethinking the partisan effects of higher turnout: So what's the question?. Public Choice 99, 357–376 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1018397327176
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1018397327176
Keywords
- Panel Data
- Public Finance
- Pool Data
- Previous Researcher
- Explicit Model