Abstract
We explore the problem of integrating some of the many factors involved in conservation planning by focusing on their effects on a common currency of conservation success, the probability of persistence. This approach has the potential to reduce many of the difficulties inherent in combining different pattern and process factors. For handling information expressed as probabilities, five area-selection methods are compared.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
C.R. Margules and R.L. Pressey, Systematic conservation planning, Nature London 405 (2000) 243–253.
M. Hollick, The role of quantitative decision-making methods in environmental impact assessment, J. Environ. Management 12 (1981) 65–78.
P.G.R. Smith and J.B. Theberge, Evaluating natural areas using multiple criteria: Theory and practice, Environ. Management 11 (1987) 447–460.
P.H. Williams, Key sites for conservation: Area-selection methods for biodiversity, in: Conservation in a Changing World, eds. G.M. Mace, A. Balmford and J.R. Ginsberg (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK, 1998) pp. 211–249.
F.B. Goldsmith, The evaluation of ecological resources in the countryside for conservation purposes, Biol. Conserv. 8 (1975) 89–96.
D.A. Ratcliffe, Selection of important areas for wildlife conservation in Great Britain: The Nature Conservancy Council's approach, in: Wildlife Conservation Evaluation, ed. M.B. Usher (Chapman and Hall, London, 1986) pp. 135–159.
A. Anselin, P.M. Meire and L. Anselin, Multicriteria techniques in ecological evaluation: An example using the analytical hierarchy process, Biol. Conserv. 49 (1989) 215–229.
S. Freitag, A.S. van Jaarsveld and H.C. Biggs, Ranking priority biodiversity areas: An iterative conservation value-based approach, Biol. Conserv. 82 (1997) 263–272.
F.B. Goldsmith, The selection of protected areas, in: The Scientific Management of Temperate Communities for Conservation, eds. I.F. Spellerberg, F.B. Goldsmith and M.G. Morris (Blackwell Science, Oxford, 1991) pp. 273–291.
D.P. Faith and P.A. Walker, Integrating conservation and development: Effective trade-offs between biodiversity and cost in the selection of protected areas, Biodiv. Conserv. 5 (1996) 431–446.
C.R. Margules, Conservation evaluation in practice, in: Wildlife Conservation Evaluation, ed. M.B. Usher (Chapman and Hall, London, 1986) pp. 297–314.
M. Bedward, R.L. Pressey and D.A. Keith, A new approach for selecting fully representative reserve networks: Addressing efficiency, reserve design and land suitability with an iterative analysis, Biol. Conserv. 62 (1992) 115–125.
M. Kershaw, P.H. Williams and G.M. Mace, Conservation of Afrotropical antelopes: Consequences and efficiency of using different site selection methods and diversity criteria, Biodiv. Conserv. 3 (1994) 354–372.
S. Polasky, J.D. Camm, A.R. Solow, B. Csuti, D. White and R. Ding, Choosing reserve networks with incomplete species information, Biol. Conserv. 94 (2000) 1–10.
M.B. AraÚjo and P.H. Williams, Selecting areas for species persistence using occurrence data, Biol. Conserv. 96 (2000) 331–345.
C.R. Margules, A.O. Nicholls and M.B. Usher, Apparent species turnover, probability of extinction and the selection of nature reserves: A case study of the Ingleborough limestone pavements, Conserv. Biol. 8 (1994) 398–409.
D.P. Faith and P.A. Walker, Integrating conservation and development: Incorporating vulnerability into biodiversity-assessment of areas, Biodiv. Conserv. 5 (1996) 417–429.
R.L. Pressey, Priority conservation areas: Towards an operational de-finition for regional assessments, in: National Parks and Protected Areas: Selection, Delimitation and Management, eds. J.J. Pigram and R.C. Sundell (University of New England, Armidale, 1997) pp. 337–357.
R.M. Cowling, R.L. Pressey, A.T. Lombard, P.G. Desmet and A.G. Ellis, From representation to persistence: Requirements for a sustainable system of conservation areas in the species-rich Mediterraneanclimate Desert of Southern Africa, Diversity Distrib. 5 (1999) 51–71.
K.M. Virolainen, T. Virola, J. Suhonen, M. Kuitunen, A. Lammi and P. Siikamäki, Selecting networks of nature reserves: Methods do affect the long-term outcome, Proc. R. Soc. London B 266 (1999) 1141–1146.
A.S.L. Rodrigues, R.D. Gregory and K.J. Gaston, Robustness of reserve selection procedures under temporal species turnover, Proc. R. Soc. London B 267 (2000) 49–55.
D.P. Faith, Conservation evaluation and phylogenetic diversity, Biol. Conserv. 61 (1992) 1–10.
P.H. Williams, K.J. Gaston and C.J. Humphries, Do conservationists and molecular biologists value differences between organisms in the same way? Biodiv. Lett. 2 (1994) 67–78.
J.B. Callicott, L.B. Crowder and K.Mumford, Current normative concepts in conservation, Conserv. Biol. 13 (1999) 22–35.
P.H. Williams and M.B. AraÚjo, Integrating species and ecosystem monitoring for identifying conservation priorities, European Nature 4 (2000) 17–18.
C.R. Margules and A.O. Nicholls, Assessing the conservation value of remnant habitat ‘islands’: Mallee patches on the western Eyre Peninsula, South Australia, in: Nature Conservation: The Role of Remnants of Native Vegetation, eds. D.A. Saunders, G.W. Arnold, A.A. Burbidge and A.J.M. Hopkins (CSIRO, 1987) pp. 89–102.
P.H. Williams and M.B. AraÚjo, Using probability of persistence to identify important areas for biodiversity conservation, Proc. R. Soc. London B 267 (2000) 1959–1966.
R.L. Pressey and A.O. Nicholls, Efficiency in conservation evaluation: Scoring versus iterative approaches, Biol. Conserv. 50 (1989) 199–218.
M.B. AraÚjo, The representation and persistence of species in conservation area networks, Ph.D. thesis, University of London, London (2000).
J.D. Camm, S. Polasky, A. Solow and B. Csuti, A note on optimal algorithms for reserve site selection, Biol. Conserv. 78 (1996) 353–355.
A.S. van Jaarsveld, K.J. Gaston, S.L. Chown and S. Freitag, Throwing biodiversity out with the binary data? S. Afr. J. Sci. 94 (1998) 210–214.
J. Jalas and J. Suominen (eds.), Atlas Florae Europaeae, Vols. 1–10 (The Committee for Mapping the Flora of Europe and Societas Biologica Fennica Vanamo, 1972, 1973, 1976, 1979, 1980, 1983, 1986, 1989, 1991, 1994).
T. Lahti and R. Lampinen, From dot maps to bitmaps, Acta Bot. Fennica 162 (1999) 5–9.
M.A. Burgman, S. Ferson and H.R. Akçakaya, Risk Assessment in Conservation Biology (Chapman and Hall, London, 1993).
E.S. Menges, Population viability analyses in plants: Challenges and opportunities, Trends Ecol. Evol. 15 (2000) 51–56.
D. Ludwig, Is it meaningful to estimate a probability of extinction? Ecology 80 (1999) 298–310.
J. Fieberg and S.P. Ellner, When is it meaningful to estimate an extinction probability? Ecology 81 (2000) 2040–2047.
M. Mangel and C. Tier, Four facts every conservation biologist should know about persistence, Ecology 75 (1994) 607–614.
P.H. Williams, D. Gibbons, C.R. Margules, A. Rebelo, C.J. Humphries and R.L. Pressey, A comparison of richness hotspots, rarity hotspots, and complementary areas for conserving diversity of British birds, Conserv. Biol. 10 (1996) 155–174.
C.R. Margules, A.O. Nicholls and R.L. Pressey, Selecting networks of reserves to maximise biological diversity, Biol. Conserv. 43 (1988) 63–76.
B. Csuti, S. Polasky, P.H. Williams, R.L. Pressey, J.D. Camm, M. Kershaw, A.R. Kiester, B. Downs, R. Hamilton, M. Huso and K. Sahr, A comparison of reserve selection algorithms using data on terrestrial vertebrates in Oregon, Biol. Conserv. 80 (1997) 83–97.
A.G. Rebelo and W.R. Siegfried, Where should nature reserves be located in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa? Models for the spatial configuration of a reserve network aimed at maximizing the protection of floral diversity, Conserv. Biol. 6 (1992) 243–252.
P. Williams, Complementarity, in: Encyclopedia of Biodiversity, ed. S.A. Levin (Academic Press, London, 2001) pp. 813–829.
P.H. Williams, Worldmap 4 Windows: Software and Help Document 4.2 (distributed privately and from http://www.nhm.ac.uk/ science/projects/worldmap/, 1999).
S. Gates and P.F. Donald, Local extinction of British farmland birds and the prediction of further loss, J. Appl. Ecol. 37 (2000) 806–820.
B. Huntley, The dynamic response of plants to environmental change and the resulting risks of extinction, in: Conservation in a Changing World, eds. G.M. Mace, A. Balmford and J.R. Ginsberg (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK, 1998) pp. 69–85.
K.S. Shrader-Frechette and E.D. McCoy, Method in Ecology – Strategies for Conservation (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK, 1993).
M.B. AraÚjo and P.H. Williams, The bias of complementarity hotspots towards marginal populations, Conserv. Biol. 15 (2001) 1710–1720.
R. Wolters and I. Bouwma, Stepping stones towards the future, European Nature 1 (1998) 6–8.
J.A. McNeely, Assessing methods for setting conservation priorities, in: Investing in Biological Diversity: The Cairns Conference (OECD Proceedings, Paris, 1997) pp. 25–55.
J.R. Prendergast, R.M. Quinn and J.H. Lawton, The gaps between theory and practice in selecting nature reserves, Conserv. Biol. 13 (1999) 484–492.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Williams, P.H., Araújo, M.B. Apples, Oranges, and Probabilities: Integrating Multiple Factors into Biodiversity Conservation with Consistency. Environmental Modeling & Assessment 7, 139–151 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1015657917928
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1015657917928