Prediction of Migration of Radionuclides in the Iput River Basin

Abstract

Based on the multichamber model, prediction evaluations of the transfer of ¹³⁷Cs and ⁹⁰Sr in the Iput river for 100 years after the Chernobyl accident have been performed. In the course of investigation, the indicated time range was subdivided into three periods: the first period covered April–December of 1986 (retrospective evaluation), the second period embraced the years 1987–2000, and the third period covered the years 2000–2080 (long-term prediction). The prediction evaluations of migration of radioactive contaminants in the Iput river have shown that over the course of a century the concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs in the Iput river network will decrease nearly 3000 times and the concentrations of ⁹⁰Sr will decrease 10,000 times. However the levels of contamination of the river systems by these radionuclides will remain rather high.