Abstract
The data array accumulated for the period 1946–1995 is used to select the most significant predictor of monthly anomalies of precipitation in the region of the Ukraine and Black Sea, namely, a large-scale circulation in a sector covering the North Atlantic and Europe. Three large-scale predictors (geopotential at a level of 500 GPa, sea-level pressure, and the difference between the geopotentials at levels of 500 and 1000 GPa) give almost identical results: their correlation with anomalies of precipitation is equal to 0.7–0.8 in winter and 0.4–0.5 in summer. The predominant mechanism of the influence of circulation on precipitations at low frequencies is the response of the trajectories of European cyclones to changes in the upper-tropospheric jet currents in the Atlantic-European sector described as the superposition of the North-Atlantic oscillation and the Eurasian mode. The decomposition of the fields of precipitations and circulation in the eigenmodes of the canonical correlation analysis opens a possibility of direct computation of the monthly average fields of precipitations for the entire territory of the Ukraine and Black Sea region according to the large-scale geopotential fields.
Similar content being viewed by others
![](https://media.springernature.com/w215h120/springer-static/image/art%3Aplaceholder%2Fimages/placeholder-figure-springernature.png)
REFERENCES
CLIVAR. A Study of Climate Variability and Predictability. Science Plan, WCRP No. 89, WMO/TD No. 690 (1995).
U. Cubsach, H. von Storch, J. Waszkewitz, et al., "Estimates of climate change in southern Europe derived from dynamical climate model output," Clim. Res. 7, No. 2, 129-49 (1996).
E. Zorita and H. von Storch, "The analog method as a simple statistical downscaling technique: comparison with more complicated methods," J. Clim. 12, 2474-2488 (1999).
J. Murphy, "An evaluation of statistical and dynamical techniques for downscaling local climate," J. Clim. 12, 2256-2284 (1999).
A. W. Robertson and M. Ghil, "Large-scale weather regimes and local climate over the western United States," J. Clim. 12, 1796-1813 (1999).
J. M. Wallace and D. S. Gutzler, "Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter," Mon. Weather Rev. 109, 784-812 (1981).
M. L. Blackmon, Y.-H. Lee, and J. M. Wallace, "Horizontal structure of 500mb height fluctuations with long, intermediate and short time scales," J. Atmos. Sci. 41, 961-969 (1984).
T. Barnett and R. Preisendorfer, "Multifield analog prediction of short-term climate fluctuations using a climate state vector," J. Atmos. Sci. 35, 1771-1787 (1978).
L. Bretherton, C. Smith, and J. Wallace, "An intercomparison of methods to find coupled patterns in climate data," J. Clim. 5, 541-560 (1992).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Efimov, V.V., Shokurov, M.V. & Barabanov, V.S. Statistical Modeling of Monthly Anomalies of Atmospheric Precipitations for the Region of the Ukraine and Black Sea. Physical Oceanography 12, 10–23 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1014620630223
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1014620630223