The Effect of Atmospheric Drag on Satellite Orbits During the Bastille Day Event

Abstract

Geomagnetic storms driven by solar eruptions are known to have significant effects on the total density of the upper atmosphere in the altitude range 250–1000 km. This in turn causes a measurable effect on the orbits of resident space objects in this altitude range. We analyzed a sample of these orbits, both from sensor data and from orbital element sets, during the period surrounding the 14 July 2000 solar activity. We present information concerning the effects of this event on the orbits of resident space objects and how well accepted atmospheric models were able to represent it. As part of this analysis, we describe a technique for extracting atmospheric density information from orbital element sets. On daily time scales, the effect of geomagnetic activity appears to be more important than that of prompt radiation. However, the limitations in time and amplitude quantization of the accepted solar indices are evident. A limited comparison is also made with previous solar storm events.