Mitigation Potential for Carbon Sequestration Through Forestry Activities in Southern and Eastern China

Abstract

In this paper, forest protection, short- and long-rotation plantations, forestregeneration, agroforestry and other activities for carbon (C) sequestration wereevaluated. China may be divided into five sub-regions, of which three fallin the main forested areas of China, i.e., the northeast, the southeast andthe southwest regions. The forestry mitigation potential in these threeregions is the subject of this paper. The Comprehensive Mitigation AssessmentProcess (COMAP) model is used to calculatethe potential for carbon mitigation and the cost-effectiveness of eachmitigation option, assuming that 60 percent of the goals of long-termforestry plans of the Chinese government could be realized. The resultsshow that the total sequestered C by the mitigation scenario between2000 and 2030 for the three regions of China will be 2093 × 10⁶ Mg C, ofwhich 281 × 10⁶ Mg C will occur between 2008 and 2012. The total netbiomass sequestration (difference of mitigation and baseline scenarios) from2000 to 2030 and from 2008 to 2012 is 496 × 10⁶ Mg C and 59 × 10⁶ Mg Crespectively. The C sequestration potential could be higher if othertwo regions are included since the forest area of the two regions amount to26.5% of total forested area, in particular, the land area suitable forforestation in the northwest accounts for 45% of the total. The activitywith least investment cost per unit of C is forest regeneration, followedby long-rotation plantation and forest conservation. The mostinvestment-intensive activity is bioenergy. The total investment for all themitigation activities is US $12.7 billion. The above figures between2008–2012 provide an upper bound on the potential for early startprojects that might be eligible for the Clean Development Mechanism(CDM). The authors would like to note that the mitigation potential andcost-effectiveness of agroforestry and bioenergy projects need to be furtherstudied.