Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Modelling: A Labyrinthic Path

This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.


  1. [1]

    J. Alcamo, R. Leemans and E. Kreileman, Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century: Results from the IMAGE 2.1 Model (Pergamon Press, Oxford, UK, 1998).

    Google Scholar 

  2. [2]

    S. Bankes, Computational experiments and exploratory modeling, CHANCE 7(1) (1994) 50–57.

    Google Scholar 

  3. [3]

    U. Beck, Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity (Sage, London, UK, 1986).

    Google Scholar 

  4. [4]

    R. Braddock, J. Filar, J. Rotmans and M.G.J. den Elzen, The IMAGE greenhouse model as a mathematical system, Applied Mathematical Modeling 18 (1994) 234–254.

    Google Scholar 

  5. [5]

    B. de Marchi, S.O. Funtowicz and J.R. Ravetz, The management of uncertainty in the communication of major hazards, in: CEC JRC EUR 15268 EN (CEC Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy, 1993).

    Google Scholar 

  6. [6]

    H. Dowlatabadi and M.G. Morgan, A model framework for integrated studies of the climate problem, Energy Policy (March, 1993) 209–221.

  7. [7]

    S.O. Funtowicz and J.R. Ravetz, Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy (Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1990).

    Google Scholar 

  8. [8]

    M. Greenberger, M.A. Crenson and B.L. Crissey, Models in the Policy Process (Basic Books, New York, USA, 1976).

    Google Scholar 

  9. [9]

    M. Henrion and B. Fischhoff, Assessing uncertainty in physical constants, Annual Journal of Physics 54(9) (1986) 791–797.

    Google Scholar 

  10. [10]

    L. Hordijk, Use of the RAINS model in acid rain negotiations in Europe, Environmental Science and Technology 25(4) (1991) 596–603.

    Google Scholar 

  11. [11]

    P.H.M. Janssen, W. Slob and J. Rotmans, Uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis: an inventory of ideas, methods and techniques from the literature, RIVM-Report no. 958805001, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands (1990).

    Google Scholar 

  12. [12]

    A. Kann, A comparison of approaches for performing uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment models, Working paper of Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford University, USA (1998).

    Google Scholar 

  13. [13]

    R. Lempert, M.E. Schlesinger and S.C. Bankes, When we don't know the costs or benefits: adaptive strategiesfor abating climate change, Climatic Change 33(2) (1996) 235–274.

    Google Scholar 

  14. [14]

    D.H. Meadows, D.L. Meadows, J. Randers and W.W. Behrens, The Limits to Growth (Universe Books, New York, USA, 1972).

    Google Scholar 

  15. [15]

    G.M. Morgan and M. Henrion, Uncertainty – A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis (Cambridge University Press, New York, USA, 1990).

    Google Scholar 

  16. [16]

    N. Oreskes, K. Shrader-Frechette and K. Belitz, Verification, validation and confirmation of numerical models in the Earth sciences, Science 263 (February, 1994) 641–646.

    Google Scholar 

  17. [17]

    J. Robinson, Global modeling: modeler client relationships, in: Options, Vol. 3 (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 1978).

    Google Scholar 

  18. [18]

    T. Root and S. Schneider, Ecology and climate: Research strategies and implications, Science 269(52) (1995) 334–341.

    Google Scholar 

  19. [19]

    J. Rotmans, IMAGE: An Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1990).

    Google Scholar 

  20. [20]

    J. Rotmans and M.B.A. van Asselt, Integrated assessment: A growing child on its way to maturity, Climatic Change 34(3,4) (1996) 327–336.

    Google Scholar 

  21. [21]

    J. Rotmans and H.J.M. de Vries, Perspectives on Global Change: The TARGETS Approach (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1997).

    Google Scholar 

  22. [22]

    J. Rotmans, Methods for IA: The challenges and opportunities ahead, Environmental Modelling and Assessment 3(3) (1998) (Special issue: Challenges and Opportunities for Integrated Environmental Assessment, J. Rotmans and P. Vellinga, eds.) 155–179.

  23. [23]

    J. Rotmans and H. Dowlatabadi, Integrated assessment of climate change: evaluation of methods and strategies, in: Human Choice and Climate Change: An International Social Science Assessment, eds. S. Rayner and E. Malone (Battelle Press, Washington, USA, 1998).

    Google Scholar 

  24. [24]

    M. Thompson, Cultural theory and integrated assessment, Environmental Modeling and Assessment 2(3) (1997) 139–150.

    Google Scholar 

  25. [25]

    M. Thompson, R. Ellis and A. Wildavsky, Cultural Theory (Westview Press, Boulder, USA, 1990).

    Google Scholar 

  26. [26]

    W. Tuinstra, L. Hordijk and M. Amann, Using computer models in international negotiations: the case of acidification in Europe, Environment 41(9) 33–42.

  27. [27]

    M.B.A. van Asselt, Global Integrated Assessment Models as Policy Support Tools: A Triangular Approach (University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands, 1994).

    Google Scholar 

  28. [28]

    M.B.A. van Asselt and J. Rotmans, Uncertainty in perspective, Global Environmental Change 6(2) (1996) 121–157.

    Google Scholar 

  29. [29]

    M.B.A. van Asselt, J. Rotmans and S.C.H. Grauw, Puzzle-Solving for Policy: A Provisional Handbook for Integrated Assessment, EFIEA Series (ICIS, Maastricht, The Netherlands).

  30. [30]

    M.B.A. van Asselt, Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk: the PRIMA Approach to Decision-Support, Ph.D. Thesis (Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 2000).

    Google Scholar 

  31. [31]

    J.P. van der Sluijs, Anchoring Amid Uncertainty (Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands, 2000).

    Google Scholar 

  32. [32]

    R.L. Wilby and T.M.L. Wigley, Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and liminations, Progress in Physical Geography 21(4) 530–548.

  33. [33]

    P. Winsemius, Coordinating standards to avoid cross-media effects, in: Proc. Conf. Protecting the Environment Against Hazards from Chemicals, IEEP/BNA (1986).

  34. [34]

    B. Wynne, Uncertainty and environmental learning: reconceiving science and policy in the preventive paradigm, Global Environmental Change 2 (June 1992) 111–127.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information



Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Rotmans, J., van Asselt, M.B. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Modelling: A Labyrinthic Path. Integrated Assessment 2, 43–55 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011588816469

Download citation


  • Assessment Modelling
  • Integrate Assessment
  • Integrate Assessment Modelling