Abstract
This paper presents an indication of the possible effects of climate change on monthly mean soil moisture at a fine spatial resolution (50 m) over the scale of a landscape (100–250 km2). Soil moisture is modelledusing daily time series of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration to drive a simple hydrological model operating on individual hillslopes and explicitly including, on a conceptual level, the lateral movement of water. Climate change is represented by the UKTR scenario and model results are provided at two time slices (the years 2030–2040 and 2060–2070) for five areasof ecological interest, forming a north-south transect across the U.K. The results are given in terms of the distribution of the monthly mean soil moisture change by soil type. The spread of values reflects the effect of the topographic control on the lateral movement of water. The results show a small increase in wetness at the Cairngorm site, a very slight decrease in summer soil moisture at the Moor House site and a very marked fall in soil moisture for the three more southerly sites. The importance of soil type in determining the availability of water to plants, the changing areal extent above specified soil moisture thresholds, and the implications for ecological change and conservation are discussed.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abbott, M. B., Bathurst, J. C., Cunge, A., O'Connell, P. E., and Rassmussen, J.: 1986, ‘An Introduction to the European Hydrological Model Système Hydrologique Européen SHE, 2. Structure of a Physically-Based Distributed Modelling System’ J. Hydrol. 87, 61–77.
Alonso, I. and Hartley, S. E.: 1998, ‘Effects of Nutrient Supply, Light Availability and Herbivory on the Growth of Heather and Three Competing Grass Species’ Plant Ecol. 137, 203–212.
Arnell, N.W. and Reynard, N. S.: 1996, ‘The Effects of Climate Change Due to Global Warming on River Flows in Great Britain’ J. Hydrol. 183, 397–424.
Band, L. E., Mackay, D. S., Creed, I. F., Semkin, R., and Jeffries, D.: 1996, ‘Ecosystem Processes at the Watershed Scale: Sensitivity to Potential Climate Change’ Limnol. Oceanogr. 41, 928–938.
Barrow, E. M., Hulme, M., and Jiang, T.: 1993, A 1961-1990 Baseline Climatology and Future Climate Change Scenarios for Great Britain and Europe. Part II: 1961-1990 Great Britain Baseline Climatology, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, U.K.
Beven, K. J. and Kirkby, M. J.: 1979, ‘A Physically-Based Variable Contributing Area Model of Basin Hydrology’ Hydrol. Sci. Bull. 24, 43–69.
Beven, K. J., Calver, A., and Morris, E. M.: 1987, The Institute of Hydrology Distributed Model, Report 98, Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford, U.K.
Beven, K. J., Lamb, R., Quinn, P., Romanowicz, R., and Freer, J.: 1995, ‘TOPMODEL’ in Singh, V. P. (ed.), Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology, Water Resources Publications, pp. 627–668.
Blackie, J. R. and Simpson, T. K. M.: 1993, ‘Climatic Variability within the Balquidder Catchments and Its Effect on Penman Potential Evaporation’ J. Hydrol. 145, 371–388.
Boorman, D. B., Hollis, J. M., and Lilly, A.: 1995, Hydrology of Soil Types: A Hydrologically-Based Classification of the Soils of the United Kingdom, Report 126, Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford, U.K., p. 137.
Bras, R. L.: 1990, Hydrology. An Introduction to Hydrological Science, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.
Bronstert, A.: 1999, ‘Capabilities and Limitations of Detailed Hillslope Hydrological Modelling’ Hydrol. Proces. 13, 21–48.
Bronstert, A. and Plate, E. J.: 1997, ‘Modelling of Runoff Generation and Soil Moisture Dynamics for Hillslopes and Micro-Catchments’ J. Hydrol. 198, 177–195.
Carlson, T. N. and Bunce, J. A.: 1996, ‘Will a Doubling of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration Lead to an Increase or a Decrease in Water Consumption by Crops?’ Ecol. Model. 88, 241–246.
Crave, A. and Gascuel-Odoux, C.: 1997, ‘The Influence of Topography on Time and Space Distribution of Soil Surface Water Content’ Hydrol. Proces. 11, 203–210.
Dolman, A. J.: 1993, ‘The Representation of Vegetation in Large-Scale Models of the Atmosphere’ in Smith, J. A. C. and Griffiths, H. (eds.), Water Deficits: Plant Responses from Cell to Community, Bios Scientific Publications, Oxford, pp. 317–332.
Dunnett, N. P., Willis, A. J., Hunt, R., and Grime, J. P.: 1998, ‘A 38-Year Study of Relations between Weather and Vegetation Dynamics in Road Verges Near Bibury, Gloucestershire’ J. Ecol. 86, 610–623.
Eatherall, A.: 1997, ‘Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems Using Linked Models and a GIS’ Clim. Change 35, 17–34.
FAO: 1984, Guidelines for Predicting Crop Water Requirements, FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 24, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Rome.
Findlay, D. C., Colbourne, G. J. N., Cope, D. W., Harrod, T. R., Hogan, D. V., and Staines, S. T.: 1984, Soils and their Use in South West England, Bulletin 14, Soil Survey of England andWales, Harpenden, U.K.
French, D. D., Miller, G. R., and Cummins, R. P.: 1997, ‘Recent Development of High Altitude Pinus Sylvestris Scrub in the Northern Cairngorm Mountains, Scotland’ Biol. Conserv. 79, 133–144.
He, H. S., Mladenoff, D. J., and Crow, T. R.: 1999, ‘Linking an Ecosystem Model and a Landscape Model to Study Forest Species Response to Climate Warming’ Ecol. Model. 114, 213–233.
Hodge, C. A. H., Burton, R. G. O., Corbett, W. M., Evans, R., and Seale, R. S.: 1984, Soils and their0 Use in Eastern England, Bulletin 13, Soil Survey of England and Wales, Harpenden, U.K.
Hulme, M. and Jenkins, G. J.: 1998, ‘Climate Change Scenarios for the U.K.: Scientific Report’ UKCIP Technical Report 1, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, p. 80.
Huntley, B., Baxter, R., Lewthwaite, K. J., Willis, S. G., and Adamson, J. K.: 1998, ‘Vegetation Responses to Local Climate Changes Induced by aWater-Storage Reservoir’ Global Ecol. Biogeog. Lett. 7, 241–257.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): 1996, Houghton, J. T., Meira Filho, L. G., Callender, B. S., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., and Maskell, K. (eds.), Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Jarvis, R. A., Bendelow, V. C., Bradley, R. I., Carroll, D. M., Furness, R. R., Kilgour, I. N. L., and King, S. J.: 1984, Soils and their Use in Northern England, Bulletin 10, Soil Survey of England and Wales, Harpenden, U.K.
Li, R.-M., Simons, D. B., and Stevens, M. A.: 1975, ‘Nonlinear Kinematic Wave Approximation for Water Routing’ Water Resour. Res. 11, 245–252.
Lockwood, J. G.: 1999, ‘Is Potential Evapotranspiration and its Relationship with Actual Evapotranspiration Sensitive to Elevated Atmospheric CO2 Levels?’ Clim. Change 41, 193–212.
Lockwood, J. G., Jones, C. A., and Smith, R. T.: 1989, ‘The Estimation of Soil Moisture Deficits Using Meteorological Models at an Upland Moorland Site in Northern England’ Agric. For. Meteorol. 46, 41–63.
Mackay, D. S. and Band, L. E.: 1997, ‘Forest Ecosystem Processes at the Watershed Scale: Dynamic Coupling of Distributed Hydrology and Canopy Growth’ Hydrol. Proces. 11, 1197–1217.
Manchester, S. J., McNally, S., Treweek, J. R., Sparks, T. H., and Mountford, J. O.: 1999, ‘The Cost and Practicality of Techniques for the Reversion of Arable Land to LowlandWet Grassland - An Experimental Study and Review’ J. Environ. Manage. 55, 91–109.
Markham, A.: 1996, ‘Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystems: A Review of Implications for Policymakers and Conservation Biologists’ Clim. Res. 6, 179–191.
Menzel, A. and Fabian, P.: 1999, ‘Growing Season Extended in Europe’ Nature 397, 659.
Morecroft, M. D.: 2000, ‘Linking Climate and Biological Monitoring: The Effects of Drought at Wytham Woods’ in Kirby, K. J. and Morecroft, M. D. (eds.), Long-Term Studies in British Woodland, English Nature Science 34, Peterborough, pp. 120–129.
Morris, D. G. and Flavin, R. W.: 1990, ‘A Digital Terrain Model for Hydrology’ in Proceedings of 4th International Symposium on Spatial Data Handling, Zurich, Volume 1, pp. 250–262.
Murphy, J. M.: 1995, ‘Transient Response of the Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Increasing Carbon Dioxide. Part I: Control Climate and Flux Adjustment’ J. Climatol. 8, 36–56.
Murphy, J.M. and Mitchell, J. F. B.: 1995, ‘Transient Response of the Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Increasing Carbon Dioxide. Part II: Spatial and Temporal Structure of Response’ J. Climatol. 8, 57–80.
Naden, P. S. and Watts, C. D.: 1998, Development of the EPIC Colour Model: Phase II, Report to Yorkshire Water, Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford.
Naden, P. S., Blyth, E. M., Broadhurst, P., Watts, C. D., and Wright, I. R.: 2000, ‘Modelling the Spatial Variation in Soil Moisture at the Landscape Scale: An Application to Five Areas of Ecological Interest in the U.K.’ Hydrol. Proces. 14, 785–809.
Naden, P. S., Crooks, S. M., and Broadhurst, P.: 1996, ‘Impact of Climate and Land Use Change on the Flood Response of Large Catchments’ in Proceedings of 31st MAFF Conference of River and Coastal Engineers, Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, London, 2.1.1–2.1.16.
Pakeman, R. J. and Marrs, R. H.: 1996, ‘Modelling the Effects of Climatic Change on the Growth of Bracken (Pteridium aquilinum) in Britain’ J. Appl. Ecol. 33, 561–575.
Polarski, M.: 1997, ‘Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model Incorporating Channel Extension and Gridded Digital Maps’ Hydrol. Proces. 11, 1–11.
Ragg, J. M., Beard, G. R., George, H., Heaven, F. W., Hollis, J. M., Jones, R. J. A., Palmer, R. C., Reeve, M. J., Robson, J. D., and Whitfield, W. A. D.: 1984, Soils and their Use in Midland and Western England, Bulletin 12, Soil Survey of England and Wales, Harpenden, U.K.
SSLRC: 1994, SEISMIC, Soil Survey and Land Research Centre (SSLRC), Silsoe, U.K.
Thompson, D. B. A., MacDonald, A. J., Marsden, J. H., and Galbraith, C. A.: 1995, ‘Upland Heather Moorland in Great Britain - A Review of International Importance, Vegetation Change and Some Objectives for Nature Conservation’ Biol. Conserv. 71, 163–178.
Thompson, N., Barrie, I. A., and Ayles, M.: 1981, The Meteorological Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System: MORECS, Hydrological Memorandum 45, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, U.K.
Usher, M. B. and Thompson, D. B. A.: 1993, ‘Variation in the Upland Heathlands of Great Britain - Conservation Importance’ Biol. Conserv. 66, 69–81.
Walker, A. D., Campbell, C. G. B., Heslop, R. E. F., Gould, J. H., Laing, D., Chem, C., Shipley, B. M., and Wright, G. G.: 1982, Soil and Land Capability for Agriculture. Eastern Scotland, Soil Survey of Scotland Sheet 5, 1:250 k, Macaulay Institute for Soil Research, Aberdeen, U.K.
Werkman, B. R., Callaghan, T. V., and Welker, J. M.: 1996, ‘Responses of Bracken to Increased Temperature and Nitrogen Availability’ Global Change Biol. 2, 59–66.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Naden, P.S., Watts, C.D. Estimating Climate-Induced Change in Soil Moisture at the LandscapeScale: An Application to Five Areas of Ecological Interest in the U.K.. Climatic Change 49, 411–440 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010684017389
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010684017389