Long-Term Fluctuations in Thunderstorm Activity in the United States

Abstract

Thunder-day occurrences during a 100-year period based on data from carefully screened records of 86 first-order stations distributed across the United States were assessed for temporal fluctuations and trends during 1896–1995. Short-term (<10-year) fluctuations of adjacentstations were often dissimilar reflecting localized differences in storm activity in a few years, making spatial interpretations difficult. But, temporal fluctuations based on 20-year and longer periods exhibited regional coherence reflecting the control of large, synoptic-scale weather systems on the distribution of thunderstorms over broad areas. Classification of station fluctuations based on 20-year periods revealed six types of distributions existed and they formed 12 discrete areas across the nation. One type present in the lower Midwest and the South had a peak in storm activity in 1916–1935 followed by a general decline to 1976–1995.A second type maximizing at the same time had its minimum earlier, in 1956–1975. Another distribution found at stations in the upper Midwest and Northeast had a mid-century peak (1936–1955) with a recent minimum in1976–1995. A fourth distribution also peaked in 1936–1955 but had an early minimumin 1896–1915, and it mainly occurred in the northern plains and Rocky Mountains. A fifth distribution peaked during 1956–1975 and was foundat stations in four areas including the central High Plains, Southwest, northern Great Lakes, and Southeast. The sixth temporal distribution showed a steady increase in storm activity during the 100-year period, peaking in 1976–1995, and covered a large area extending from the Pacific Northwestacross the central Rockies and into the southern High Plains. The national average distribution based on all station values peaked in mid century. The national distribution differs markedly from several regional distributions illustrating the importance of using regional analysis to assess temporal fluctuations in severe weather conditions in the nation. The 100-year linear trends of the 86 stations defined six regions across the U.S. Significant upward trends existed over most of the western two-thirds of the nation, unchanging trends existed in the northern plains and Midwest, and downward trends were found in most of the nation's east. The up trends in storm-day frequencies in the southern plains occurred where storm damage is greatest and where demographic changes have added to storm losses over time. The national patterns of trends and storm distributions were similar to those found for hail. The temporal distributions of storm activity helped explain recent increases in major storms and their losses, conditions which have increased in the west and south.