Skip to main content
Log in

Reducing Vulnerability of Water Resources of Canadian Prairies to Potential Droughts and Possible Climatic Warming

  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Past and the present studies show that the Canadian Prairies havebecome warmer and may have been drier in the last four to five decadesbut the drying trends are scattered and inconclusive.Statistical analysis shows that only the Winter and Fall (insome instances) precipitation is marginally related to ENSO andthe PNA (Pacific North Americ) Index, and streamflow is highlyvariable. With uncertainties on the potential impact of climaticchange and other uncertainties, several strategies are proposedto reduce the vulnerability of the Prairies to future droughts,where surface water is the primary water supply and agricultureis the major water user: (1) Continue implementing small-scalewater resources projects and increase water storage through snowmanagement, (2) increase integration between existing waterresources systems, and (3) promote water conservation measuresin agriculture practice, water pricing and water metering.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allan, R. J., Nicholls, N., Jones, P. D. and Butterworth, P. D.: 1991, A further extension of the Tahiti-Darwin SOI, early ENSO events and Darwin pressure, 4, J. Climate, 743–748.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arthur, L. and Chorney, B.: 1989, Impact of the 1988 drought on recreation/tourism - Saskatchewan and Manitoba', In: Environmental and Economic Impacts of the 1988 Drought: With Emphasis on Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Vol. 1, SRC, Saskatoon.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arthur, L. and Van Kooten, G. C.: 1991, Climate impacts on agribusiness, In: G. Wall (ed.), Symposium on the Impacts of Climatic Change and Variability on the Great Plains, Dept. of Geography Publ. Series, Occasional Paper #12, U. of Waterloo.

  • Brklacich, M., Stewart, R., Kirkwood, V. and Muma, R.: 1994, Effects of global climate change on wheat yields in the Canadian Prairies, In: Rozenzweig and Iglesias (eds), Implications of Climate Change for International Agriculture: Crop Modeling Study, U.S. EPA, Climate Change Division.

  • Brown, R. D. and Goodison, B. E.: 1996, Interannual variability in reconstructed Canadian snow cover, 1915- 1992, J. Climate 9(6), 1299–1318.

    Google Scholar 

  • Burn, D.: 1994, Hydrologic effects of climatic change in west-central Canada, J. Hydrol. 160, 53–70.

    Google Scholar 

  • Caligiuri, E. and Nemanishen, W.: 1986, Developing and managing livestock water sources to ensure water supplies during prolonged drought periods, In: Drought: The Impending Crisis? Proceedings of the Canadian Hydrology Symposium #16, Regina, Saskatchewan, pp. 461–473.

  • Case, R. A. and MacDonald, G. M.: 1995, A dendroclimate reconstruction of annual precpitation on the western Canadian prairies since A. D. 1505 from Pinus flexilis James, Quarterly Res. 26, 267–275.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cayan, D. R. and Peterson, D. H.: 1989, In: D. H. Peterson (ed.), The Influence of North Pacific Atmospheric Circulation of Streamflow in the West, Geophysical Monograph 55, American Geophysical Union, pp. 375–397.

  • Cohen, S. J.: 1991, Possible impacts of climatic warming scenarios on water resources in the Saskatchewan River Sub-basin, Canada, Climatic Change 19, 291–317.

    Google Scholar 

  • Demuth, M. N.: 1996, Effects of Short-Term and Historical Glacier Variations on Cold Stream Hydro-Ecology: A Synthesis and Case Study, NHRI, Saskatoon.

    Google Scholar 

  • Diaz, H. F.: 1986, An analysis of twentieth century climate fluctuations in Northern North America, J. Climate Appl. Meteorol. 25(11), 1625–1757.

    Google Scholar 

  • Environment Canada: 1993, Water Works, Freshwater Series A-4, Ottawa, Ontario.

  • Findlay, B. F., Gullett, D. W., Malone, L., Reycraft, J., Skinner, W. R., Vincent, L. and Whitewood, R.: 1993, Canadian national and regional standardized annual precipitation departures, In: T. A. Boden, D. P. Kaiser, R. J., Sepanski, and Stoss, F. W. (eds), Trends '93: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, ORNL/CDIAC-65, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A., pp. 800–828

    Google Scholar 

  • Fowler, D. B.: 1998, Snowcover and Risk of Winterkill, Winter Cereal Production, University of Saskatchewan.

  • Frederick, K. D.: 1997, Adapting to climate impacts on the supply and demand for water, Climatic Change 37, 141–156.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frederick, K. D., Major, D. and Stakhiv, E. Z.: 1997, Water resources planning principles and evaluation criteria for climate change summary and conclusions, Climatic Change 37, 291–313.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frederick, K. D.: 1993, Paper 4. Climate change impacts on water resources and possible responses in the MINK region, J. Climatic Change 24, 83–115.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gan, T. Y.: 1995, Trends in air temperature and precipitation for Canada and Northeastern United States, International Journal of Climatology (Royal Meteorological Society), 15, 1115–1134.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gan, T. Y.: 1998, Hydroclimatic trends and possible climatic warming in the Canadian Prairies, American Geophysical Union, Water Resour. Res. 34(11), 3009–3015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gingras, D. and Adamowski, K.: 1995, The impact of El Niñ o southern oscillation on central Canadian floods and droughts, Can. J. Civil Eng. 22(4), 834–837.

    Google Scholar 

  • Godwin, R. B.: 1986, Drought: A surface water perspective, In: Drought: The Impending Crisis? Proceedings of the Canadian Hydrology Symposium #16, Regina, Saskatchewan, 27–43.

  • Gullet, D.W. and Skinner,W. R.: 1992, The state of Canada's climate: temperature change in Canada 1895- 1991, State of the Environment Rept. # 92- 2, Environment Canada.

  • Hansen, J. E.: 1988, The Greenhouse effect: Impacts on current global temperature and regional heat waves, presented to the US House of Representatives and Senate.

  • Hengeveld, H.: 1991, Understanding atmospheric change, a survey of the background science and implications of climate change and ozone depletion, Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada, SOE Rep. 91- 2.

  • Herrington, R., Johnson, B. and Hunter, F.: 1997, Responding to Global Climate Change in the Prairies, Vol. III of the Canada Country Study: Climate Impacts and Adaptation, Environment Canada.

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: 1996a, Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change: Contribution of Working Group I to the 2nd Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: 1996b, Climate Change 1995: Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses: Contribution of Working Group II to the 2nd Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.

  • Kellogg, W., and Zhao, Z. C.: 1988, Sensitivity of soil moisture to doubling of carbon dioxide in climate model experiments, Part I: North America, J. Climate 1(4), 348–366.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keppenne, C. L. and Chil, M.: 1992, Adaptive spectral analysis and prediction of the Southern Oscillation Index, J. Geophys. Res. 97, 20449–20554.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kulshreshtha, S. N., Fautley, R. A. and Klein, K. K.: 1986, Choice of irrigation development technology for drought proofing: a case study of small scale v.s. large scale irrigation development, In: Drought: The Impending Crisis? Proceedings of the Canadian Hydrology Symposium #16, Regina, Saskatchewan, pp. 301–313.

  • Latif, M. and Barnett, T. P.: 1994, Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America, Science 266, 634–637.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lins, H. F., Wolock, D. M. and McCabe, G. J.: 1997, Scale and modeling issues in Water Resources planning, Climatic Change 37, 63–88.

    Google Scholar 

  • Matalas, N. C.: 1997, Stochastic hydrology in the context of climate change, Climatic Change 37, 89–101.

    Google Scholar 

  • McNab, A. L. and Karl, T. R.: 1991, Climate and Droughts, In: R. W. Paulson, E. B. Chase, R. S. Roberts and D. W. Moody (eds), National Water Summary 1988- 89- Hydrologic Events and Floods and Droughts, U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 2375, pp. 89–98.

  • Mitchell, J. M.: 1968, Further studies of drought over the northeastern United States: Conference on the drought in the Northeastern United States, New York, New York University, Proceedings #TR-68- 3, pp. 129–159.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moon, Y. and Lall, U.: 1996, Large Scale Atmospheric Indices and the Great Salt Lake: Interannual and Interdecadal Variability, ASCE J. Hydrologic Engng. V. 1(2).

  • Namias, J.: 1983, Some causes of United States drought, J. of Climate and Applied Meteorology 22(1), 30–39.

    Google Scholar 

  • Namias, J.: 1985, New evidence for relationships between North Pacific atmospheric circulation and El Niñ o, Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Newsletter, pp. 2–3.

  • Nash, L. L. and Gleick, P. H.: 1993, The Colorado River Basin and climatic change: The sensitivity of streamflow and water supply to variation in temperature and precipitation, EPA 230- R- 93- 009, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washingon, D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nicholaichuk, W. and Gray, G. M.: 1986, Reduction of drought effects on the Prairies by snow management, In Drought: The Impending Crisis? Proceedings of the Canadian Hydrology Symposium #16, Regina, Saskatchewan, pp. 197–209.

  • Omachi, T.: 1997, Drought Concilation and Water Rights - Japanese Experience, Infrastructure Development Institute, Japan, Tokyo.

    Google Scholar 

  • Piechota, T. C., Dracup, J. A. and Fovell, R. G.: 1997, Western U.S. streamflow and atmospheric circulation patterns during El Niñ o-Southern Oscillation, J. Hydrology 201, 259–271.

    Google Scholar 

  • Raddatz, R. L. and Shaykewich, C. F.: 1997, Impact of a warming climate on evapotranspiration on the Eastern Prairies, CMOS Congress, Saskatoon, June 1- 5.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ripley, E. A.: 1986, Is the Prairie climate becoming drier? In: Drought: The Impending Crisis? Proceedings of the Canadian Hydrology Symposium #16, Regina, Saskatchewan, pp. 49–60.

  • Ripley, E. A.: 1988, Drought prediction of the Canadian Prairies, Canadian Climate Centre, Report #88- 4, National Hydrology Research Centre, Saskatoon, p. 137.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rogers, P.: 1994, Assessing the socioeconomic consequences of climate change on water resources, J. Climatic Change 28, 179–208.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ropelewski, C. F. and Halpert, M. S.: 1986, North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niñ o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Monthly Weather Review 114, 2352–2362.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg, N. J., Kimball, B. A., Martin, P. and Cooper, C. F.: 1990, From climate and CO2 enrichment to evapotranspiration, In P. E. Waggoner (ed.), Climate Change and U.S. Water Resources, John Wiley & Sons, New York, pp. 151–175.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig, C. and Hillel, D.: 1993, Plant and environment interactions: The Dust Bowl of the 1930s, analog of greenhouse effect in the Great Plains? J. Environmetal Quality 22.

  • Santer, B. D., Taylor, K. E., Wigley, T. M. L., Johns, T. C., Jones, P. D., Karoly, D. J., Mitchell, J. F. B., Oort, A. H., Penner, J. E., Ramaswamy, V., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Stouffer, R. J. and Tett, S.: 1996, A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere, Nature 382, 39–46.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schaake, J.: 1990, From Climate to flow, In: P. E. Waggoner (ed.), Climate Change and U.S. Water Resources, John Wiley & Sons, New York, pp. 177–206.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schlesinger, M. E. and Mitchell, J. F. B.: 1985, Model projection of the equilibrium climatic response to increased carbon dioxide, In: M. C. MacCracken and F.M. Luther (eds), Projecting the Climate Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide, U.S. Dept. of Energy, DOE/ER-0237.

  • Schneider, S. H., Gleick, P. H. and Mearns, L. O.: 1990, Prospects for Climate Change, In: P. E. Waggoner (ed.), Climate Change and U.S. Water Resources, John Wiley & Sons, New York, pp. 41–73.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stakhiv, E. Z.: 1996, Managing Water Resources for Climate Change Adaptation, In: J. B. Smith, N. Bhatti, G. V. Menzhulin, R. Benioff, M. Campos, B. Jallow, F. Rigsberman, M. I. Budyko and R. K. Dixon (eds), Adapting to Climate Change: Assessment and Issues, Springer, New York, pp. 243–264.

    Google Scholar 

  • Swanson, R. H. and Bernier, P. Y.: 1986, The potential for increasing water supply in the Saskatchewan River system through watershed management, Proceedings of the Canadian Hydrology Symposium #16, Regina, Saskatchewan, pp. 485–496.

  • Tate, D. M. and Scharf, D. N.: 1995, Water Use in Canadian Industry, 1991, Social Science Series #31, Environmental Canada, Ottawa, Canada.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thomas, G.: 1990, The regional hydrologic impacts of global climate change: the role of climate models, Paleogeography, Paleoclimatology, Paleoecology (Global and Planetary Change Section), 82, 343–368.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tyrchniewicz, A. and Chiotti, Q.: 1997, Agriculture and Climate Change: A Prairie perspective, Appendix A. In: Responding to Global Climate Change in the Prairies, Vol. III of the Canada Country Study: Climate Impacts and Adaptation, Environment Canada.

  • UNEP: 1991, Report of Workshop on ENSO and Climate Change, Earth Global, Environment Monitoring System, Nov. 1991.

  • U.S. Water Resources Council: 1978, The Nation's Water Resources 1975- 2000; Second National Water Assessment, I. Summary, Washington, DC.

  • Wals, J. E., Richman, M. B. and Allen, D. W.: 1982, Spatial coherence of monthly precipitation in the United States, Monthly Weather Review 110, 272–286.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wheaton, E., Wittrock, V. and Williams, G. D. V. (ed.).: 1992, Saskatchewan in a Warmer World: Strategies for the Future, SRC, Saskatoon.

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams, G. D. V., Jones, H. K., Wheaton, E. G., Stewart, R. B. and Fautley, R. A.: 1988, Estimating the impacts of climatic change on agriculture in the Canadian Prairies, the Saskatchewan Case Study, In: The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture, Vol. 1, Assessment in Cool Temperate and Cold Regions, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 221–379.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wolman, M. G. and Wolman, A.: 1986, Water Supply: Persistent myths and recurring issues, In: R. W. Kates and I. Burton (eds), Geography, Resources and Environment, II, University of Chicago Press, pp. 1–27.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Gan, T.Y. Reducing Vulnerability of Water Resources of Canadian Prairies to Potential Droughts and Possible Climatic Warming. Water Resources Management 14, 111–135 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008195827031

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008195827031

Navigation