Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Climatic Change Impact on Water Resources in a Systems Perspective

  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Global climate change related to natural and anthropogenic processes has been the topic of concern and interest world wide. Despite ongoing research efforts, the climate predictions cannot be rated any better than speculative or possible scenarios whose probability of occurrence is, at the present stage, impossible to assess. One of the most significant impacts of the ‘greenhouse effect’ is anticipated to be on water resources, including different elements of the hydrologic cycle, water supply and demand, regional vulnerability, and water quality. Thus, the impact of climate change appears to be an additional component on top of the large number of existing water-related problems.

The existence of the greenhouse effect, the increase of greenhouse gas emissions, and the rise of corresponding concentrations are things that are certain. However, their impacts on hydrology and water management are highly uncertain. In the latter area, one needs information on much smaller spatial and temporal scales than those used in climate studies. The objective of the present paper is to analyze the climate change impact on water resources in a system's perspective, to discuss scientific gaps, and challenge scientific issues. The role of different scales and uncertainties, as well as the hydrological view of global circulation models are also discussed. Our preparedness for probable global (climate) change is reviewed in terms of assessment, planning, design and adaptation.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Askew, A. J.: 1991, Climate and water - a call for international action, Hydrol. Sci. J. ¿6(4), ¿91–404.

    Google Scholar 

  • Aston, A. R.: 1984, The effect of doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide on streamflow: a simulation, J. Hydrol. 67, 27¿–280.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bardossy, A. and Plate, E. J.: 1992, Space-time model for daily rainfall using atmospheric circulation pattern, Water Resour. Res. 28(5), 1247–1259.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chang, L. H., Hunsaker, C. T. and Draves, J. D.: 1992, Recent research on effects of climate change on water resources, Water Resour. Bull. 28(2), 27¿–286.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dickinson, R. E., Henderson-Sellers, A., Kennedy, P. J. and Wilson, M. F.: 1986, BiosphereAtmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) for the NCAR Community Climate model, NCAR Technical Note TN-275 + STR, 69pp.

  • Dooge, J. C.I.: 1986, Climate change and water resources, Lecture presented at ¿8th session of the WMO Executive Council, WMO No. 675.

  • Eagleson, P. S.: 1970, Dynamic Hydrology, McGraw-Hill, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Entekhabi, D. and Eagleson, P. S.: 1989, Landsurface hydrology parameterization for atmospheric general circulation models including subgrid scale spatial variability, J. Climate 2(8), 816–88¿.

    Google Scholar 

  • Falkenmark, M.: 1989, Global-change-induced disturbances of water-related phenomena - the European perspective, IIASA Collaborative Paper, CP-89-001, 41 pp.

  • Fiering, M. B.: 1982, Alternative indices of resilience, Water Resour. Res. 18, ¿¿–¿9.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fiering, M. B. and Matalas, N. C.: 1990, Dicision-making under uncertainty, in: P. E. Waggoner (ed.), op. cit.

  • Fiering, M. B. and Rogers, P.: 1989, Climate change and water resources planning under uncertainty, Report for U.S. Army Institute for Water Resources, Fort Belvoir, VA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gates, W. L.: 1985, Problems and prospects in climate modeling, in: U. Radok (ed.), Problems and Prospects in Climate Analysis and Forecasting, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gates, W. L., Mitchel, J. F. B., Boer, G. J., Cubash, U and Meleshko, V. P.: 1992, Climate modelling, climate prediction and model validation, in: J. T. Houghton, B. A. Callandar, and S. K. Varney (eds), Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press.

  • Giorgi, F. and Mearns, L.O.: 1991, Approaches to the simulation of regional climate change: a review, Rev. Geophys. 29(2), 191–216.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gleick, P. H.: 1990, Vulnerability of water systems, in: P. E. Waggoner (ed.), op. cit.

  • Hashimoto, T., Stedinger, J. R. and Loucks, D. P.: 1982, Reliability, resiliency and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation,Water Resour. Res. 18, 14–20.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hashimoto, T., Loucks, D. P. and Stedinger, J. R.: 1982, Robustness of water resources systems, Water Resour. Res. 18, 21–29.

    Google Scholar 

  • Helmer, O.: 1988, Using expert judgment, in: H. J. Miser and E. S. Quade (eds),Handbook of Systems Analyis. Craft Issues and Procedural Choices, Wiley, Chichester.

    Google Scholar 

  • Holling, C. S. (ed.): 1978, Adaptive Environmental and Assessment and Management, Wiley, Chichester.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hulme, M., Wigley, T. M. L. and Jones, P. D.: 1990, Limitations of regional climate scenarios for impact analysis, in: M. M. Boer and R. S. de Groot (eds), Landscape-Ecological Impact of Climatic Change, IOS Press, 429 pp.

  • Ingram, H. M., Cortner, H. J. and Landy M. K.: 1990, The political agenda, in: P. E. Waggoner (ed.), op. cit.

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): 1990, Climate Change. The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press.

  • Jaeger, J.: 1988, Developing policies for responding to climatic change. A summary of the discussion and recommendations of the workshops held in Villach, 28 September to 2October 1987, WCIP-1, WMO/TD No. 225.

  • Johnson, K. D., Entekhabi, D. and Eagleson, P. S.: 1991, The implementation and validation of improved landsurface hydrology in an atmospheric general circulation model, Report No. ¿¿4 (R91-2¿), Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory, Hydrology and Water Resource Systems, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass., U.S.A.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kaczmarek, Z.: 1990, On the sensitivity of runoff to climate change. IIASAWorking Paper, WP-90-58.

  • Kaczmarek, Z.: 1992,Water resources under climatic stress: the case of Central Europe, Collaborative Research Proposal (unpublished).

  • Kaczmarek, Z. and Krasuski, D.: 1991, Sensitivity of water balance to climate change and variability, IIASA Working Paper, WP-91-47.

  • Kaczmarek, Z., Kundzewicz, Z.W. and Priazhinskaya, V.: 1996, Climate change amd water resources planning, in: Z. Kaczmarek, K. Strzepek, L. Somly¿dy and V. Priazhinskaya (eds), Water Resources Management in the Face of Climatic/Hydrological Uncertainties, KluwerAcad. Publ., Dordrecht, pp. 168–19¿.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keeling, C. D., Nacastow, R. B., Carter, A. F., Piper, S. C., Whorf, T. P., Heimann, M., Mook, W. G. and Roeloffzen, H.: 1989, A three-dimensional model of atmospheric CO2 transport based on observed winds: 1. Analysis of observational data, in: D. H. Peterson (ed.), Aspects of Climate Variability in the Pacific and the Western Americas, Geophysical Monograph, 55, AGU, Washington, pp. 165–2¿6.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kite, G.: 1982, Analyzing hydromereorological time series to detect climatic change, in: G. W. Kite and K. D. Harvey (eds), Using Hydrometric Data to Detect and Monitor Climatic Change, Proc. of NHRI Workshop No. 8 (April 1992, Saskatoon), NHRI, pp. 1¿1–142.

  • Klemes, V.: 1985, Sensitivity of water-resource system to climate variations. World Climate Report No. 98, WMO, Geneva.

    Google Scholar 

  • Klemes, V.: 1986, Dilletantism in hydrology: transition or destiny? Water Resour. Res. 22(9), 177S–188S.

    Google Scholar 

  • Klemes, V.: 1990, Sensitivity of water resource systems to climatic variability, Proc. Canad. Water Resour. Association, 4¿ Annual Conf., Penticton, pp. 2¿¿–242.

  • Klemes, V.: 1991, Design implications of climate change. Invited paper, The First National Conference on Climate Change and Water Resources Management, Albuquerque, New Mexico, 5- 7 Nov. 1991.

  • Klemes, V.: 1992, Implications of possible climate change for water management and development, Invited statement published in Water News (Canadian Water Resour. Association Newsletter, S2- S3, April 1992).

  • Konikow, L. F. and Bredehoeft, J. D.: 1992, Ground-water models cannot be validated, Adv. Water Resour. 15(1), 75–8¿.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kulshrestha, S. N.: 1993, World water resources and regional variability: impact of future changes, IIASA Research Report, RR-9¿-10.

  • Kundzewicz, Z.W.: 1991, Water sciences at the threshold of the 21st century, Proc. Commem. Symp, 25 years of IHP, UNESCO, pp. 159–167.

  • Kundzewicz, Z.W.: 1995, Hydrological uncertainty in perspective, in: Z.W. Kundzewicz (ed.), New Uncertainty Concepts in Hydrology andWater Resources, Proc. Madralin Symposium, UNESCO Series in Water Resources, Cambridge University Press, pp. ¿–10.

  • Kundzewwicz, Z.W. and Somly¿dy, L.: 1993, Climatic change impact on water resources - a systems view, IIASA Working Paper, WP-9¿-¿0.

  • Lins, H. F. and Michaels, P. J.: 1994, Increasing U.S. streamflow linked to greenhouse forcing, EOS, 75(25), 281–285.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lins, H., Shiklomanov, I. and Stakhiv, E.: 1992, Hydrology and water resources, in: W. J. McG. Tegart, C.W. Sheldon, and D. C. Griffiths (eds), Climate Change; The IPCC Impact Assessment, Australian Government Publishing Service.

  • Meyer, G., Masliev, I and Somly¿dy, L.: 1994, An analysis on the impact of climate change on regional sensitivity of lake stratification, IIASA Working Paper, WP-94-29.

  • McCabe, G. J. and Wollock, D. M.: 1992, Effects of climatic change and climatic variability on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Delaware river basin, Climatic Change 20, 14¿–15¿.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mearns, L. O., Gleick, P. H. and Schneider, S. H.: 1990, Climate forecasting, in: P. E. Waggoner (ed.), op. cit.

  • Mimikou, M. A. and Kouvopoulos, Y. S.: 1991, Regional climate change impacts: I. Impacts on water resources, Hydrol. Sci. J. ¿6(¿), 247–258.

    Google Scholar 

  • Miser, H. J. and Quade, E. S. (eds): 1988, Handbook of Systems Analysis. Craft Issues and Procedural Choices, Wiley, Chichester, 681 pp.

  • Mitosek, H. T.: 1992, Occurrence of climate variability and change within the hydrological time series. A statistical approach, IIASA, Collaborative Paper, CP-92-05.

  • Nemec, J. and Schaake, J.: 1982, Sensitivity of water-resource systems to climate variation, Hydrol. Sci. J. 27(¿), ¿27–¿4¿.

    Google Scholar 

  • Niemczynowicz, J.: 1992, Water management and urban development (manuscript),UNESCO Conf. on Environment and Development, Paris.

  • Orlob, G. T.: 1982, Introduction, in: G. T. Orlob (ed.), Mathematical Modeling of Water Quality, Wiley/IIASA, Chichester, pp. 1–10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rogers, P. P. and Fiering, M. B.: 1990, From flow to storage, in: P. E. Waggoner (ed.), op. cit.

  • Salewicz, K. A.: 1992, Impact of climate change on Zambezi river reservoirs, in: I. Minami (ed.), Global Water Use under Limited Water Situation, Proc. Regional Conf. IRCSA, Kyoto, 4- 10 Oct. 1992, pp. 970–980.

  • Schaake, J. C.: 1990, From climate to flow, in: P. E. Waggoner, (ed.), op. cit.

  • Schaake, J. C. and Kaczmarek, Z.: 1979, Climate variability and the design and operation of water resource systems, WMO, World Climate Conference, Geneva, 12- 2¿ February 1979, WCC/Overview Paper 12.

  • Schneider, S. H., Gleick, P. H. and Mearns, L. O.: 1990, Prospects for climate change, in: P. E. Waggoner (ed.), op, cit.

  • Schwarz, H. E. and Dillard, L. A.: 1990, Urban water, in: P. E. Waggoner (ed.), op. cit.

  • Sellers, P. J., Mintz, Y., Sud, Y. C. and Delcher, A.: 1986, A simple biosphere model (SiB) for use within general circulation models, J. Atmos. Sci. 4¿(6), 505–5¿1.

    Google Scholar 

  • Somly¿dy, L., Alonso, L. R., Fleit, E., Hultman, B., Matsui, S. and Olson, B. H.: 1992, Water quality 2000: a look at the main issues to the end of the century and how IAWQ should respond to them, IAWQ Yearbook, 1992-1992, IAWQ, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Streeter, H. W. and Phelps, E. B.: 1925, Study of the pollution of natural purification of the Ohio River. U.S. Public Health Service, Washington, D.C., Bulletin 146 (reprinted 1958).

    Google Scholar 

  • Szilagyi, F. and Somly¿dy, L.: 1991, Potential impact of climate change on water quality on water quality of lakes. IAHS Publ.

  • The Global 2000 Report to the President: 1980, The Technical Report, Vol. 2, U.S. Government Printing Office, 766 pp.

  • Varis, O and Somly¿dy, L.: 1993, Potential impacts of climatic change on water quality of lakes and reservoirs. IIASA Working Paper, WP-9¿-25.

  • Verstraete, M. M.: 1989, Land surface processes in climate models: status and propects, in: A. Berger, S. Schneider and J. C1. Duplessy (eds), Climate and the Geosciences: A Challenge for Science and Society in the 21st Century, Kluwer Acad. Publ., Dordrecht, pp. ¿21–¿40.

    Google Scholar 

  • Waggoner, P. E. (ed.): 1990, Climate Change and U.S. Water Resources, Wiley, New York, 496 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • World Meteorological Organization (WMO): 1989, Report of Conference in Climate and Water, Helsinki, 11- 15 September 1989.

  • Yevjevich, V.: 1963, Fluctuation ofwet and dry years, Part I.Research data assembly andmathematical models, Colorado State University, Hydrology Paper No. 1.

  • Yevjevich, V.: 1964, Fluctuation of wet and dry years, Part II. Analysis by serial correlation, Colorado State University, Hydrology Paper No. 4.

Download references

Author information

Author notes

  1. Z. W. Kundzewicz

    Present address: Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznań, Poland

Authors and Affiliations

  1. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

    Z. W. Kundzewicz

  2. Department of Water and Wastewater Engineering, Budapest University of Technology, Budapest, Hungary

    L. Somlyódy

Authors
  1. Z. W. Kundzewicz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. L. Somlyódy
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Kundzewicz, Z.W., Somlyódy, L. Climatic Change Impact on Water Resources in a Systems Perspective. Water Resources Management 11, 407–435 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007984001105

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007984001105

Search

Navigation