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A space-time criterion for early detection of epidemics of influenza-like-illness

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Abstract

Objectives: To develop a method based on a space-time criterion for early detection of epidemics of influenza-like-illness in France. Methods: Since 1984, the French Communicable Diseases computer Network (FCDN) routinely detects epidemics of influenza-like-illness when the national incidence rate is, for 2 consecutive weeks, above a threshold computed by a periodic regression model. It appears that some areas reported early increases in incidence several weeks before the national epidemic. An optimised space-time criterion allows an early detection of the epidemic periods. Results: Applying this space-time criterion to the last 11 epidemics (from 1986), the sensitivity was 0.82 and the specificity was 0.99. Conclusion: This simple procedure can be used as an additional tool for early detection of an epidemic taking into account the distribution of new cases in space and time.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. INSERM U 444, Institut Fédératif Saint-Antoine de Recherche sur la Santé, Paris, France

    Laurent Toubiana & Antoine Flahault

Authors
  1. Laurent Toubiana
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  2. Antoine Flahault
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Toubiana, L., Flahault, A. A space-time criterion for early detection of epidemics of influenza-like-illness. Eur J Epidemiol 14, 465–470 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007481929237

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007481929237

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