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Factors Affecting Birth Rates Among Black Women 20--24 Years of Age: A Trend Analysis (January 1972--March 1992)

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Abstract

This research provides a multivariate explanation of monthly (N = 243) birth rate variation for African-American women 20--24 years of age using time series analysis. The research explains both seasonal and intermediate variation in these birth rates. The independent variables were selected for their relationship to: economic understandings of fertility; developing understandings of the relationship of photoperiod to reproductive functioning; routine activity theory; and the relationship of birth rates to quality of life perspectives. The findings of this research are interpreted with respect to important developments and understandings in the quality of life literature. Concepts of ''compensatory validation'' and ''contextual compatibility'' are derived from quality of life understandings and Rainwater's (1974) concept of ''validating activities''. The previously identified importance of domains of intimacy, sexual activity and family life (Cummins, 1996; Alfonso et al., 1996) are related to empirical findings concerning the conception of children and incorporated into these theoretical concepts. Nine explanatory variables were selected. Theoretical, research and policy implications are summarized.

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  1. People Tree Research and Development, Springfield, IL, 62704, U.S.A

    Philip S. Salisbury

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Salisbury, P.S. Factors Affecting Birth Rates Among Black Women 20--24 Years of Age: A Trend Analysis (January 1972--March 1992). Social Indicators Research 48, 1–38 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1006937202572

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