Abstract
Demands for forest, farm, and developed land are evolving in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region. The demand for land in developed uses, as well as demands for various forest and farm products are changing in response to population growth, demographic shifts, and market forces. As demand factors change so do relative land values. Land area in future forest, farm, and developed uses may shift as landowners re-evaluate relative net benefits from land use alternatives. This study examines the effects of various land demand and supply factors on the determination of land use patterns in the mid-Atlantic region. Driving variables include costs and benefits from various uses, population density, and measures of land quality. Model parameters are estimated using a binomial logit procedure. Results from the study are used to estimate proportions of forest area on a county by county basis. Simulated forest landscapes under hypothetical future conditions are prepared and illustrated using geographic information system (GIS) techniques.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bockstael, N.E.: 1996, ‘Modeling economics and ecology: The importance of a spatial perspective’, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 78(5), 1168-1180.
Hardie, I.W. and Parks, P.J.: 1996, ‘Program Enrollment and Acreage Response to Reforestation Cost-Sharing Programs’, Land Economics 72(2), 248-260.
Hardie, I.W. and Parks, P.J. 1997, ‘Land Use in a Region with Heterogeneous Land Quality: An Application of an Area Base Model’, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 79(2), 299-310.
Henderson, J.M. and Quandt, R.E.: 1980, Microeconomic Theory: A Mathematical Approach, Third Edition, New York: McGraw Hill.
Judge, G.G., Griffiths, W.E., Hill R.C. and Lee, T.-C.: 1985, The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, Second Edition, New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Maddala, G.S.: 1987, ‘Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics’, Econometric Society Mongraphs, No. 3, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Parks, P.J.: 1990, ‘Models of Forest and Agricultural Landscapes: Integrating Economics’, in: Quantitative Methods in Landscape Ecology, M.G. Turner and R.H. Gardner (eds.), New York: Springer-Verlag.
Parks, P.J.: 1995, ‘Explaining ‘Irrational’ Land Use: Risk Aversion and Marginal Agricultural Land,’ Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 28(1), 34-47.
Parks, P.J., E.B., Barbier and Burgess, J.C.: 1998, ‘The Economics of Forest Land Use in Temperate and Tropical Areas,’ Environmental and Resource Economics 11(3–4), 473-487.
Parks, P.J. and Hardie, I.W.: 1995, “Least Cost Forest Carbon Reserves: Cost-Effective Subsidies to Convert Marginal Agricultural Land to Forests,” Land Economics 71(1), 122-136.
Parks, P.J. and Kramer, R.A.: 1995, ‘A Policy Simulation of the Wetlands Reserve Program’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 28(2), 223-240.
Parks, P.J. and Quimio, W.R.H.: 1996, ‘Preserving Agricultural Land with Farmland Assessment: New Jersey as a Case Study’, Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 25(1), 22-27.
Parks, P.J. and Schorr, J.P.: 1997, “Sustaining Open Space Benefits in the Northeast: An Evaluation of the Conservation Reserve,” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 32(1), 85-94.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service: 1981, Major Land Resource Areas of the United States, Agricultural Handbook No. 296, Washington.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Parks, P.J., Hardie, I.W., Tedder, C.A. et al. Using Resource Economics to Anticipate Forest Land Use Change in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region. Environ Monit Assess 63, 175–185 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1006471214869
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1006471214869