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Climatic Change

, Volume 46, Issue 3, pp 289–303 | Cite as

On the Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Greenhouse Climate Change

  • Ralf Greve
Article

Abstract

Numerical computations are performed with the three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS in order to investigate the possible impact of a greenhouse-gas-induced climate change on the Greenland ice sheet. The assumed increase of the mean annual air temperature above the ice covers a range from ΔT = 1°C to 12°C, and several parameterizations for the snowfall and the surface melting are considered. The simulated shrinking of the ice sheet is a smooth function of the temperature rise, indications for the existence of critical thresholds of the climate input are not found. Within 1000 model years, the ice-volume decrease is limited to 10% of the present volume for ΔT ≤ 3°C, whereas the most extreme scenario, ΔT = 12°C, leads to an almost entire disintegration, which corresponds to a sea-level equivalent of 7 m. The different snowfall and melting parameterizations yield an uncertainty range of up to 20% of the present ice volume after 1000 model years.

Keywords

Critical Threshold Uncertainty Range Surface Melting Extreme Scenario Present Volume 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ralf Greve
    • 1
  1. 1.Institut für Mechanik IIITechnische Universität DarmstadtDarmstadtGermany

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