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Climatic Change

, Volume 46, Issue 1–2, pp 91–113 | Cite as

Investigating Climate Change Impacts and Thresholds: An Application of the CLIMPACTS Integrated Assessment Model for New Zealand Agriculture

  • G. J. Kenny
  • R. A. Warrick
  • B. D. Campbell
  • G. C. Sims
  • M. Camilleri
  • P. D. Jamieson
  • N. D. Mitchell
  • H. G. McPherson
  • M. J. Salinger
Article

Abstract

The determination of `critical thresholds'is an essential task for informed policydecisions on establishing greenhouse gas emissiontargets. This paper presents a framework fordetermining critical thresholds for New Zealandagriculture, focusing on three agriculturalcrops – kiwifruit, grain maize, andPaspalum dilatatum – as exemplars for the fruitproduction, arable cropping and dairy productionindustries in New Zealand. The approach is based onthe application of a country-scale, integratedassessment model, called CLIMPACTS. The CLIMPACTSsystem contains a climate change scenario generator,climate and land data, and sectoral impact models. Importantly, CLIMPACTS allows time-dependentassessments of climate change and its effects, whichfacilitates the identification and examination of thresholds, which largely relate to spatial changes, over time, in regions of economic importance for these crops. However, whether such thresholds are `critical' for New Zealand cannot currently be addressed by the CLIMPACTS model. The determination of `criticality' requires a fully integrated assessment in which the social, economic, and environmental costs and risks associated with these thresholds are comprehensively evaluated.

Keywords

Climate Change Maize Change Scenario Climate Change Impact Economic Importance 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

Authors and Affiliations

  • G. J. Kenny
    • 1
  • R. A. Warrick
    • 1
  • B. D. Campbell
    • 2
  • G. C. Sims
    • 1
  • M. Camilleri
    • 3
  • P. D. Jamieson
    • 4
  • N. D. Mitchell
    • 5
  • H. G. McPherson
    • 3
  • M. J. Salinger
    • 6
  1. 1.International Global Change InstituteUniversity of WaikatoHamiltonNew Zealand
  2. 2.AgResearch, Grasslands Research CentrePalmerston NorthNew Zealand
  3. 3.HortResearch, Mt. Albert Research CentreAucklandNew Zealand
  4. 4.Crop and Food ResearchChristchurchNew Zealand
  5. 5.School of Environmental and Marine SciencesUniversity of AucklandAucklandNew Zealand
  6. 6.NIWAAucklandNew Zealand

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