Climatic Change

, Volume 46, Issue 1–2, pp 91–113 | Cite as

Investigating Climate Change Impacts and Thresholds: An Application of the CLIMPACTS Integrated Assessment Model for New Zealand Agriculture

  • G. J. Kenny
  • R. A. Warrick
  • B. D. Campbell
  • G. C. Sims
  • M. Camilleri
  • P. D. Jamieson
  • N. D. Mitchell
  • H. G. McPherson
  • M. J. Salinger


The determination of `critical thresholds'is an essential task for informed policydecisions on establishing greenhouse gas emissiontargets. This paper presents a framework fordetermining critical thresholds for New Zealandagriculture, focusing on three agriculturalcrops – kiwifruit, grain maize, andPaspalum dilatatum – as exemplars for the fruitproduction, arable cropping and dairy productionindustries in New Zealand. The approach is based onthe application of a country-scale, integratedassessment model, called CLIMPACTS. The CLIMPACTSsystem contains a climate change scenario generator,climate and land data, and sectoral impact models. Importantly, CLIMPACTS allows time-dependentassessments of climate change and its effects, whichfacilitates the identification and examination of thresholds, which largely relate to spatial changes, over time, in regions of economic importance for these crops. However, whether such thresholds are `critical' for New Zealand cannot currently be addressed by the CLIMPACTS model. The determination of `criticality' requires a fully integrated assessment in which the social, economic, and environmental costs and risks associated with these thresholds are comprehensively evaluated.


Climate Change Maize Change Scenario Climate Change Impact Economic Importance 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Campbell, B. D. and Mitchell, N. D.: 1996, Report on the Development of Climate Profiles of Subtropical Grasses for CLIMPACTS, AgResearch Internal Report, June 1996, p. 5.Google Scholar
  2. Campbell, B. D., McKeon, G. M., Gifford, R.M., Clark, H., Stafford Smith, M. S., Newton, P. C. D., and Lutze, J. L.: 1996a, ‘Impacts of Atmospheric Composition and Climate Change on Temperate and Tropical Pastoral Agriculture’, in Bouma, W. J., Pearman, G. I., and Manning, M. R. (eds.), Greenhouse: Coping with Climate Change, CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood, Victoria, Australia, pp. 171-189.Google Scholar
  3. Campbell, B. D., Wardle, D. A., Woods, P., Field, T. R. O., Williamson, D. Y., and Barker, G. M.: 1996b, ‘Ecology of Subtropical Grasses in Temperate Pastures: An Overview’, Proc. N.Z. Grassland Assoc. 57, 189-197.Google Scholar
  4. Carter, T. R., Parry, M. L., Harasawa, H., and Nishioka, S.: 1994, IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, University College London, U.K. and Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan, p. 59.Google Scholar
  5. Eastman, J. R.: 1995, IDRISI for Windows, User's Guide Version 1.0, Clark University, Worcester, MA.Google Scholar
  6. Field, T. R. O. and Forde, M. B.: 1990, ‘Effects of Climate Warming on the Distribution of C4 Grasses in New Zealand’, Proc. N.Z. Grassland Assoc. 51, 47-50.Google Scholar
  7. Gordon, H. B. and Hunt, B. G.: 1990, ‘Droughts, Floods and Sea-Surface Temperature Anomalies: A Modelling Approach’, Int. J. Clim. 11, 347-365.Google Scholar
  8. Hulme, M., Raper, S. C. B., and Wigley, T. M. L.: 1995, ‘An Integrated Framework to Address Climate Change (ESCAPE) and Further Developments of the Global and Regional Climate Modules (MAGICC)’, Energy Pol. 23, 347-355.Google Scholar
  9. IPCC, 1996: Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report, WMO and UNEP, p. 56.Google Scholar
  10. Jackson, F. S., McNabb, W. C., Peters, J. S., Barry, T. N., Campbell, B. D., and Ulyatt, M. J.: 1996, ‘Nutritive Value of Subtropical Grasses Invading North Island Pastures’, Proc. N.Z. Grassland Assoc. 57, 203-206.Google Scholar
  11. Jamieson, P. D., Martin, R. J., and Francis, G. S.: 1995, ‘Drought Influences on Grain Yield of Barley, Wheat and Maize’, N.Z. J. Crop Horticult. Sci. 23, 55-66.Google Scholar
  12. Kenny, G. J., Warrick, R. A., Mitchell, N., Mullan, A. B., and Salinger, M. J.: 1995, ‘CLIMPACTS: An Integrated Model for Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on the New Zealand Environment’, J. Biogeogr. 22, 883-895.Google Scholar
  13. Kenny, G. J., Sims, G. C., and Warrick, R. A.: 1996, CLIMPACTS 1995/96: Progress with Development of the CLIMPACTS System, CAERS Research Report.Google Scholar
  14. Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T.: 1987, ‘Large-Scale Changes of Soil Wetness Induced by an Increase in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide’, J. Atmos. Sci. 44, 1211-1235.Google Scholar
  15. Markham, A.: 1996, ‘Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystems: A Review of Implications for Policymakers and Conservation Biologists’, Clim. Res. 6, 179-191.Google Scholar
  16. McPherson, H. G., Hall, A. J., and Stanley, C. J.: 1994, ‘Seasonal and Regional Variation in Budbreak and Flowering of Kiwifruit Vines in New Zealand’, N.Z. J. Crop Hortic. Sci. 22, 263-276.Google Scholar
  17. Ministry for the Environment: 1997, Climate Change: The New Zealand Response II, New Zealand's Second National Communication under the Framework Convention on Climate Change, Ministry for the Environment, Wellington, p. 191.Google Scholar
  18. Nix, H. A.: 1986, ‘A Biogeographic Analysis of Australian Elpid Snakes’, in Longmore, R. (ed.), Atlas of Elapid Snakes of Australia, Australian Government Publishing Services, Canberra, Australia, pp. 4-15.Google Scholar
  19. Osborn, T. J. and Wigley, T. M. L.: 1994, ‘A Simple Model for Estimating Methane Concentration and Lifetime Variations’, Clim. Dyn. 9, 181-193.Google Scholar
  20. Parry, M. L., Carter, T. R., and Hulme, M.: 1996, ‘What Is a Dangerous Climate Change?’, Global Environ. Change 6, 1-6.Google Scholar
  21. Salinger, M. J.: 1987, ‘Impact of Climatic Warming on the New Zealand Growing Season’, J. Roy. Soc. N.Z. 17, 363-371.Google Scholar
  22. Salinger, M. J. and Kenny, G. J.: 1995, ‘Climate and Kiwifruit cv. ‘Hayward': 2. Regions in New Zealand Suited for Production’, N.Z. J. Crop Hortic. Sci. 23, 173-184.Google Scholar
  23. Salinger, M. J., Williams, W. M., Williams, J. M., and Martin, R. J.: 1990, ‘Agricultural Resources’, in Climatic Change: Impacts on New Zealand, Ministry for the Environment, Wellington, New Zealand, pp. 108-132.Google Scholar
  24. Salinger, M. J., Kenny, G. J., and Morley-Bunker, M. J.: 1993, ‘Climate and Kiwifruit (Actinidia deliciosa) cv. Hayward: 1. Influences on Development and Growth’, N.Z. J. Crop Hortic. Sci. 21, 235-245.Google Scholar
  25. Sims, G. C., Warrick, R. A., Kenny, G. J., and Ye, W.: 1997, ‘Management of Gridded Climate Data for National Scale Integrated Assessment Models’, in Proceedings of GeoComputation 97 and SIRC 97, University of Otago, New Zealand, 26-29 August 1997.Google Scholar
  26. Statistics New Zealand: 1996, New Zealand Official Yearbook, 1996, Statistics New Zealand, p. 592.Google Scholar
  27. Tate, K. R., Giltrap, D. J., Parshotam, A., Hewitt, A. E., Ross, D. J., Kenny, G. J., and Warrick, R. A.: 1996, ‘Impacts of Climate Change on Soils and Land Systems in New Zealand’, in Bouma, W. J., Pearman, G. I., and Manning, M. R. (eds.), Greenhouse: Coping with Climate Change, CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood, Victoria, Australia, pp. 190-204.Google Scholar
  28. Warrick, R. A., Kenny, G. J., Sims, G. C., Ericksen, N. J., Ahmad, Q. K., and Mirza, M. Q.: 1996, ‘Integrated Model Systems for National Assessments of the Effects of Climate Change: Applications in New Zealand and Bangladesh’, J. Water Air Soil Poll. 92, 215-227.Google Scholar
  29. Watson, R. T, Zinyowera, M. C., Moss, R. H., and Dokken, D. J. (eds.): 1998, The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability, Special Report of IPCC Working Group II, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, p. 517.Google Scholar
  30. Weyant, J., Davidson, O., Dowlatabadi, H., Edmonds, J., Grubb, M., Parson, E. A., Richels, R., Rotmans, J., Shukla, P. R., and Tol, R. S. J.: 1996, ‘Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: An Overview and Comparison of Approaches and Results’, in Bruce, J. P., Lee, H., and Haites, E. F. (eds.), Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, pp. 367-396.Google Scholar
  31. Wigley, T. M. L.: 1993, ‘Balancing the Carbon Budget. Implications for Projections of Future Carbon Dioxide Concentration Changes’, Tellus 45B, 409-425.Google Scholar
  32. Wigley, T. M. L. and Raper, S. C. B.: 1992, ‘Implications for Climate and Sea Level of Revised IPCC Emissions Scenarios’, Nature 357, 293-300.Google Scholar
  33. Wigley, T. M. L. and Raper, S. C. B.: 1993, ‘Future Changes in Global-Mean Temperature and Sea Level’, in Warrick, R. A., Barrow, E. M., and Wigley, T. M. L. (eds.), Climate and Sea Level Change: Observations, Projections and Implications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., pp. 111-133.Google Scholar
  34. Wigley, T. M. L., Richels, R., and Edmonds, J. A.: 1996, ‘Alternative Emissions Pathways for Stabilizing Concentrations’, Nature 379, 240-243.Google Scholar
  35. Wilson, D. R. and Salinger, M. J.: 1994, ‘Climatic Risk for Sweet Corn Production in Canterbury, New Zealand’, N.Z. J. Crop Hortic. Sci. 22, 57-64.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

Authors and Affiliations

  • G. J. Kenny
    • 1
  • R. A. Warrick
    • 1
  • B. D. Campbell
    • 2
  • G. C. Sims
    • 1
  • M. Camilleri
    • 3
  • P. D. Jamieson
    • 4
  • N. D. Mitchell
    • 5
  • H. G. McPherson
    • 3
  • M. J. Salinger
    • 6
  1. 1.International Global Change InstituteUniversity of WaikatoHamiltonNew Zealand
  2. 2.AgResearch, Grasslands Research CentrePalmerston NorthNew Zealand
  3. 3.HortResearch, Mt. Albert Research CentreAucklandNew Zealand
  4. 4.Crop and Food ResearchChristchurchNew Zealand
  5. 5.School of Environmental and Marine SciencesUniversity of AucklandAucklandNew Zealand
  6. 6.NIWAAucklandNew Zealand

Personalised recommendations