Abstract
There is considerable uncertainty as to whether interannual variability in climate and terrestrial ecosystem production is sufficient to explain observed variation in atmospheric carbon content over the past 20–30 years. In this paper, we investigated the response of net CO2 exchange in terrestrial ecosystems to interannual climate variability (1983 to 1988) using global satellite observations as drivers for the NASA-CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) simulation model. This computer model of net ecosystem production (NEP) is calibrated for interannual simulations driven by monthly satellite vegetation index data (NDVI) from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) at 1 degree spatial resolution. Major results from NASA-CASA simulations suggest that from 1985 to 1988, the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 and 60°N) was the principal region driving progressive annual increases in global net primary production (NPP; i.e., the terrestrial biosphere sink for carbon). The average annual increase in NPP over this predominantly northern forest zone was on the order of +0.4 Pg (1015 g) C per year. This increase resulted mainly from notable expansion of the growing season for plant carbon fixation toward the zonal latitude extremes, a pattern uniquely demonstrated in our regional visualization results. A net biosphere source flux of CO2 in 1983–1984, coinciding with an El Niño event, was followed by a major recovery of global NEP in 1985 which lasted through 1987 as a net carbon sink of between 0.4 and 2.6 Pg C per year. Analysis of model controls on NPP and soil heterotrophic CO2 fluxes (Rh) suggests that regional warming in northern forests can enhance ecosystem production significantly. In seasonally dry tropical zones, periodic drought and temperature drying effects may carry over with at least a two-year lag time to adversely impact ecosystem production. These yearly patterns in our model-predicted NEP are consistent in magnitude with the estimated exchange of CO2 by the terrestrial biosphere with the atmosphere, as determined by previous isotopic (δ13C) deconvolution analysis. Ecosystem simulation results can help further target locations where net carbon sink fluxes have occurred in the past or may be verified in subsequent field studies.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bishop, J. K. B. and Rossow, W. B.: 1991, ‘Spatial and Temporal Variability of Global Surface Solar Irradiance’, J. Geophys. Res. 96, 16,839-16,858.
Ciais, P., Tans, P. P., White, J. W. C., Trolier, M., Francey, R. J., Berry, J. A., Randall, D. R., Sellers, P. J., Collatz, J. G., and Schimel, D. S.: 1995, ‘Partitioning of Ocean and Land Uptake of CO2 as Inferred by δ 13C Measurements from the NOAA/CMDL Global Air Sampling Network’, J. Geophys. Res. 100, 5051-5057.
Dai, A. and Fung, I. Y.: 1993, ‘Can Climate Variability Contribute To the Missing CO2 Sink?’ Global Biogeochem. Cycles 7, 599-609.
DeFries, R. and Townshend, J.: 1994, ‘NDVI-Derived Land Cover Classification at Global Scales’, Int. J. Remote Sens. 15, 3567-3586.
Denning, A. S.: 1994, Investigations of the Transport, Sources, and Sinks of Atmospheric CO 2 Using a General Circulation Model, Atmos. Sci. Pap. 564, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO.
Gordon, H. R., Brown, J. W., and Evans, R. H.: 1988, ‘Exact Rayleigh Scattering Calculations for Use with the Nimbus-7 Coastal Zone Color Scanner’, Appl. Optics 27, 2111-2122.
Goulden, M. J., Munger, J. W., Fan, S.-M., Daube, B. C., and Wofsy, S. C.: 1996, ‘Exchange of Carbon Dioxide by a Deciduous Forest: Response to Interannual Climate Variability’, Science 271, 1576-1577.
Goward, S. N. and Prince, S. D.: 1995, ‘Transient Effects of Climate on Vegetation Dynamics: Satellite Observations’, J. Biogeogr. 22, 549-563.
Holben, B. N.: 1986, ‘Characteristics of Maximum-Value Composite Images from Temporal AVHRR Data’, Int. J. Remote Sens. 7, 1417-1434.
Justice, C. O., Malingreau, J.-P., and Setzer, A. W.: 1993, ‘Satellite Remote Sensing of Fires: Potential and Limitations’, in Crutzen, P. J. and Goldammer, J. G. (eds.), Fire in the Environment: The Ecological, Atmospheric, and Climatic Importance of Vegetation Fires, Environmental Sciences Research Report 13, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, pp. 77-88.
Keeling, C. D., Whorf, T. P., Whalen, M., and van der Plicht, J.: 1995, ‘Interannual Extremes in the Rise of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Since 1980’, Nature 375, 666-667.
Keeling, C. D., Chin, J. F. S., and Whorf, T. P.: 1996, ‘Increased Activity of Northern Vegetation Inferred from Atmospheric CO2 Measurements’, Nature 382, 146-149.
Keeling, C. D., Bacastow, R. B., Carter, A. F., Piper, S. C., Whorf, T. P., Heimann, M., Mook, W. G., and Roeloffzen, H.: 1989, ‘A Three-Dimensional Model of Atmospheric CO2 Transport Based on Observed Winds: 1. Analysis of Observed Data’, in Peterson, D. H. et al. (eds.), Aspects of Climate Variability in the Pacific and Western America, Geographical Monograph 55, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., pp. 165-236.
Kindermann, J., Würth, G., and Kohlmaier, G. H.: 1996, ‘Interannual Variation of Carbon Exchange Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems’, Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 737-755.
Leemans, R. and Cramer, W. P.: 1990, The IIASA Database for Mean Monthly Values of Temperature, Precipitation and Cloudiness of a Global Terrestrial Grid, WP-41, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenberg Working Paper, IIASA, Laxenberg, Austria, p. 60.
Los, S. O., Justice, C. O., and Tucker, C. J.: 1994, ‘A Global 1 × 1 NDVI Data Set for Climate Studies Derived from the GIMMS Continental NDVI Data’, Int. J. Remote Sens. 15, 3493-3518.
Malmström, C. M., Thompson, M. V., Juday, G. P., Los, S. O., Randerson, J. T., and Field, C. B.: 1997, ‘Interannual Variation in Global Scale Net Primary Production: Testing Model Estimates’, Global Biogeochem. Cycles 11, 367-392.
Melillo, J. M., Prentice, C., Farquhar, G., Schulze, E.-D., and Sala, O.: 1996, in Houghton, J. T. et al. (eds.), IPCC Second Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 455-483.
Myneni, R. B., Maggion, S., Iaquinta, J., Privette, J. L., Gobron, N., Pinty, B., Verstraete, M. M., Kimes, D. S., and Williams, D. L.: 1995, ‘Optical Remote Sensing of Vegetation: Modelling, Caveats and Algorithms’, Remote Sens. Environ. 51, 169-188.
Myneni, R. B., Keeling, C. D., Tucker, C. J., Asrar, G., and Nemani, R. R.: 1997, ‘Increased Plant Growth in the Northern High Latitudes from 1981 to 1991’, Nature 386, 698-674.
Parton, W. J., McKeown, B., Kirchner, V., and Ojima, D.: 1992, CENTURY Users Manual, Colorado State University, Fort Collins.
Peddle, D. R., Hall, F. G., LeDrew, E. F., and Knapp, D. E.: 1997, ‘Classification of Forest Land Cover in BOREAS. II: Comparison of Results from a Sub-Pixel Scale Physical Modeling Approach and a Training Based Method’, Can. J. Remote Sens. 23, 131-142.
Potter, C. S., Randerson, J., Field, C. B., Matson, P. A., Vitousek, P.M., Mooney, H. A., and Klooster, S. A.: 1993, ‘Terrestrial Ecosystem Production: A Process Model Based on Global Satellite and Surface Data’, Global Biogeochem. Cycles 7, 811-841.
Potter C. S. and Klooster, S. A.: 1997, ‘Global Model Estimates of Carbon and Nitrogen Storage in Litter and Soil Pools: Response to Change in Vegetation Quality and Biomass Allocation’, Tellus 48B(1), 1-17.
Potter, C. S., Klooster, S. A., and Brooks, V.: 1997, Interannual Variability in Terrestrial Net Primary Production: Exploration of Trends and Controls on Regional to Global Scales, NASA Workshop on Interannual Biosphere-Atmosphere Variability, March 24–26, Tucson, AZ.
Running, S. W. and Hunt, E. R. Jr.: 1993, in Ehleringer, J. R. and Field, C. B. (eds.), Scaling Ecological Process Leaf to Globe, Academic Press, San Diego, pp. 141-158.
Running, S. W., Myneni, R. B., Nemani, R. R., and Glassy, J.: 1996, MOD15 LAI/FPAR Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document, NASA Headquarters, Washington, D.C.
Sellers, P. J., Tucker, C. J., Collatz, G. J., Los, S. O., Justice, C. O., Dazlich, D. A., and Randall, D. A.: 1994, ‘A Global 1 × 1 NDVI Data Set for Climate Studies. Part 2: The Generation of Global Fields of Terrestrial Biophysical Parameters from the NDVI’, Int. J. Remote Sens. 15, 3519-3545.
U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP): 1997, Our Changing Planet, Committee on Environment and Natural Resources Research of the National Science and Technology Council, Washington, D.C.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Potter, C.S., Klooster, S.A. Detecting a Terrestrial Biosphere Sink for Carbon Dioxide: Interannual Ecosystem Modeling for the Mid-1980s. Climatic Change 42, 489–503 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005449017059
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005449017059