Climatic Change

, Volume 35, Issue 2, pp 145–156

SENSITIVITY OF MALARIA, SCHISTOSOMIASIS AND DENGUE TO GLOBAL WARMING

  • WILLEM J. M. Martens
  • THEO H. Jetten
  • DANA A. Focks

Abstract

Global assessment of the potential impacts of anthropogenically-induced climate change on vector-borne diseases suggests an increase in extent of the geographical areas susceptible to transmission of malarial Plasmodium parasites, dengue Flavivirus and Schistosoma worms. The transmission potential of the three associated vector-borne diseases studied is highly sensitive to climate changes on the periphery of the currently endemic areas and at higher altitudes within such areas. Our findings vis-à-vis the present endemic areas indicate that the increase in the epidemic potential of malaria and dengue transmission may be estimated at 12–27% and 31–47%, respectively, while in contrast, schistosomiasis transmission potential may be expected to exhibit a 11–17% decrease.

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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1997

Authors and Affiliations

  • WILLEM J. M. Martens
    • 1
  • THEO H. Jetten
    • 2
  • DANA A. Focks
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of MathematicsMaastricht UniversityMaastrichtThe Netherlands
  2. 2.Department of Entomology, C. T. de Wit Graduate School for Production EcologyWageningen Agricultural UniversityWageningenThe Netherlands
  3. 3.Medical and Veterinary Entomology Research LaboratoryUS Department of AgricultureGainesvilleU.S.A

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