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The Value of Improved ENSO Prediction to U.S. Agriculture


The economic value of long-range weather prediction is measured by the increase in social welfare arising from the use of the prediction in economic decisionmaking. This paper describes a study of the economic value of ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture. The interdisciplinary study involved the analysis of data and models from meteorology, plant science, and economics under a framework based on Bayesian decision analysis. The estimated annual value of perfect ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture is $323 million.

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Solow, A.R., Adams, R.F., Bryant, K.J. et al. The Value of Improved ENSO Prediction to U.S. Agriculture. Climatic Change 39, 47–60 (1998).

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  • Social Welfare
  • Decision Analysis
  • Weather Prediction
  • Economic Decisionmaking
  • Plant Science