Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEMS USING LINKED MODELS AND A GIS

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Future climate change scenarios have been applied to a linked model at five UK sites. Results indicate a decrease in grassland productivity under a changed climate, resulting from lower soil water content, with possible large consequences to future UK water resource planning. The effect of running the grassland sub-model in isolation, compared with running it as part of a linked model showed that linked models should be used for climate change impacts studies. The location specific response to climate change was also highlighted. The model is mechanistic, consists of four sub-models (grassland, water balance, nitrate and evapotranspiration) and is spatially explicit.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Arnell, N. and Reynard, N.: 1993, ‘Impact of Climate Change on River Flow Regimes in the United Kingdom’, Report to the Department of the Environment, Water Directorate.

  • Bunce, R. G. H., Barr, C. J., and Whittaker, H. A.: 1981, ‘Land Classes in Great Britain: Preliminary Descriptions for Users of the Merlewood Method of Land Classification’, Merlewood Research and Development Paper No. 86, ITE (Merlewood).

    Google Scholar 

  • Burrough, P. A.: 1986, ‘Principles of Geographical Information Systems for Land Resources Assessment’, Oxford University Press, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eatherall, A., Sloan, W., Jenkins, A., and Terry, A. C.: 1992, ‘Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Biogeochemical and Ecological Systems: Core Model Project’, A progress report for the year to November 1992. Under contact to DoE (PECD 7/12/69), unpublished.

  • Eatherall, A., Sloan, W., Jenkins, A., Terry, A. C., and Woodward, F. I.: 1993, ‘Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Biogeochemical and Ecological Systems: Core Model Project’, A progress report for the year to December 1993. Under contact to DoE (PECD 7/12/69), unpublished.

  • ESRI: 1990, ‘Understanding GIS the Arc/Info Method’, Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CA, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hall, R. L and Harding, R. J.: 1993, ‘The Water Use of the Balquhidder Catchments: A Processes Approach’, J. of Hydrol. 145, 285-314.

    Google Scholar 

  • Houghton, J. T., Callander, B. A., and Varrey, S. K.: 1992, ‘Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment’, Cambridge University Press.

  • Johnson, S. P.: 1993, ‘The Earth Summit: The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED)’, International Environmental Law and Policy Series, Graham and Trotam Ltd.

  • Marsh, T. J.: 1995, ‘The 1995 UK Drought-A Signal of Climatic Instability?’, submitted to Institute of Civil Engineers.

  • National Rivers Authority: 1994, ‘Water -- Nature's Precious Resource: An Environmentally Sustainable Water Resources Development Strategy for England and Wales’, HMSO, pp. 26-27.

  • Parr, T. and Eatherall, A.: 1994, ‘Demonstrating Climate Change Impacts in the UK: The Department of the Environment Core Model Programme 1990–1994’, Prepared for the UK Department of the Environment, Global Atmosphere Division (PECD 7/12/96).

  • Richardson, C. W.: 1981, ‘Stochastic Simulation of Daily Precipitation, Temperature and Solar Radiation’, Water Resource Res. 17, 182-190.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sheehy, J. E., Cobby, J. M., and Ryle, G. J. A.: 1979, ‘The Growth of Perennial Ryegrass: A Model’, Ann. Bot. 43, 335-354.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sheehy, J. E., Cobby, J. M., and Ryle, G. J. A.: 1980, ‘The Use of a Model to Investigate the Influence of some Environmental Factors on the Growth of Perennial Ryegrass’, Ann. Bot. 46, 343-365.

    Google Scholar 

  • Viner, D. and Hulme, M.: 1993, ‘Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Studies in the UK: General Circulation Models, Scenario Construction Methods and Applications for Impact Assessment’, A report prepared for the UK Department of the Environment (PECD 7/12/96).

  • Viner, D. and Hulme, M.: 1994, ‘The Climate Impacts LINK Project’, A report prepared for the UK Department of the Environment (PECD 7/12/96).

  • Wigley, T. H. and Raper, S. C. B.: 1992, ‘Implications for Climate and Sea Level of Revised IPCC Emissions Scenarios’, Nature 357, 293-300.

    Google Scholar 

  • WMO and UNEP: 1992, ‘1992 IPCC Supplement, Scientific Assessment of Climate Change’, submission from working group I.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10, 8BB, U.K

    A. Eatherall

Authors
  1. A. Eatherall
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Eatherall, A. MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEMS USING LINKED MODELS AND A GIS. Climatic Change 35, 17–34 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005308216173

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005308216173

Keywords

Search

Navigation