Solar Physics

, Volume 189, Issue 1, pp 217–224 | Cite as

Prediction of the sunspot maximum of solar cycle 23 by extrapolation of spectral components

  • R.P. Kane
Article

Abstract

A simple method MEM-MRA, where spectral peaks are located by MEM (Maximum Entropy Method) and about a dozen most prominent ones are used in MRA (Multiple Regression Analysis) to estimate their amplitudes and phases, was applied to the sunspot number (Rz) series of 1748–1996. Spectral characteristics were different in the successive 3 intervals of 83 years each. Hence, for predictions, only data for the recent 83 years were considered relevant. From the spectra for 1914–1996, the most significant peaks at 5.3, 8.3, 10.5, 12.2, 47 years were used for reconstruction. The match between observed and reconstructed values was good (correlation +0.90). When extrapolated, the reconstructed values indicate a sunspot number maximum for the present solar cycle 23 as 140±9, to occur in year 2000 and for the next solar cycle 24 as 105±9, to occur in year 2010–2011.

Keywords

Entropy Regression Analysis Multiple Regression Analysis Spectral Characteristic Solar Cycle 

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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

Authors and Affiliations

  • R.P. Kane
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas EspaciasSão José dos Campos
  2. 2.São PauloBrazil

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