Skip to main content
Log in

Prediction of the sunspot maximum of solar cycle 23 by extrapolation of spectral components

  • Published:
Solar Physics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

A simple method MEM-MRA, where spectral peaks are located by MEM (Maximum Entropy Method) and about a dozen most prominent ones are used in MRA (Multiple Regression Analysis) to estimate their amplitudes and phases, was applied to the sunspot number (Rz) series of 1748–1996. Spectral characteristics were different in the successive 3 intervals of 83 years each. Hence, for predictions, only data for the recent 83 years were considered relevant. From the spectra for 1914–1996, the most significant peaks at 5.3, 8.3, 10.5, 12.2, 47 years were used for reconstruction. The match between observed and reconstructed values was good (correlation +0.90). When extrapolated, the reconstructed values indicate a sunspot number maximum for the present solar cycle 23 as 140±9, to occur in year 2000 and for the next solar cycle 24 as 105±9, to occur in year 2010–2011.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bevington, P. R.: 1969, Data Reduction and Error Analysis for the Pbysical Sciences.McGraw-Hill, New York, pp. 164-176.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blackman, R. B. and Tukey, J. W.: 1958, The Measurement of Power Spectra. Dover, New York, pp. 190.

    Google Scholar 

  • Burg, J. P.: 1967, Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis, paper presented at the 37th Meeting. Society of Exploration Geophysics, Oklahoma City, October.

  • Cohen, T. J. and Lintz, P. R.: 1974, Nature 250, 398.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cole, T. W.: 1973, Solar Phys. 30, 103.

    Google Scholar 

  • Currie, R. G.: 1973, Astrophys. Space Sci. 20, 509.

    Google Scholar 

  • DeMeyer, F.: 1981, Solar Phys. 70, 259.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jinno, K., Xu, S., Berndtsson, R., Kawamura, A., and Matsumoto, M.: 1995, J. Geophys. Res. 100, 14773.

    Google Scholar 

  • Joselyn, J. A., Anderson, J. B., Coffey, H., Harvey, K., Hathaway, D., Heckman, G., Hildner, E., Mende,W., Schatten, K., Thompson, R., Thomson, A.W. P., and White, O. R.: 1997, EOS Trans., AGU 78, 205, 211.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kane, R. P.: 1977, J. Geomag. Geoelectr. 29, 471.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kane, R. P.: 1979, J. Geophys. Res. 84, 965.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kane, R. P.: 1997, Geophys. Res. Letters 4, 1899.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kane, R. P.: 1998, Geophys. Res. Letters 25, 3121.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kane, R. P. and Trivedi, N. B.: 1982, Geophysics 47, 1731.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kane, R. P. and Trivedi, N. B.: 1985, J. Geomag. Geoelectr. 37, 1071.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keppenne, C. L. and Ghil, M.: 1992, J. Geophys. Res. 97, 20449.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kimura, H.: 1913, Monthly Notices Royal Astron. Soc. 73, 543.

    Google Scholar 

  • McKinnon, J. A.: 1987, UAG Report 95, pp 112, NOAA Boulder, CO, U.S.A.

  • Mundt, M. D., Maguire, II, W. B., and Chase, R. R. P.: 1991, J. Geophys. Res. 96, 1705.

    Google Scholar 

  • Radoski, H. R., Fougere, P. F., and Zawalick, E. J.: 1975, J. Geophys. Res. 80, 619.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramanuja Rao, K.: 1973, Solar Phys. 29, 47.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rangarajan, G. K.: 1998, Earth Planets Space 50, 91.

    Google Scholar 

  • Turner, H. H.: 1913, Monthly Notices Royal Astron. Soc. 73, 714.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ulrych, T. J. and Bishop, T. N.: 1975, Rev. Geophys. 13, 183.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vautard, R. and Ghil, M.: 1989, Physica D35, 395.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vautard, R., Yiou, P., and Ghil, M.: 1992, Physica D58, 95.

    Google Scholar 

  • Waldmeier, M.: 1961, The Sunspot Activity in the Years 1610-1960, Schulthess & Co. AG, Zürich.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, R. M.: 1992, Solar Phys. 140, 181.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, R. M., Hathaway, D. H., and Reichmann, E. J.: 1998, J. Geophys. Res. 103, 6596.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Kane, R. Prediction of the sunspot maximum of solar cycle 23 by extrapolation of spectral components. Solar Physics 189, 217–224 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005298313886

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005298313886

Keywords

Navigation