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Predictions of the maximum amplitude for solar cycle 23 and its subsequent behavior using nonlinear methods

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Abstract

Two nonlinear methods are employed for the prediction of the maximum amplitude for solar cycle 23 and its declining behavior. First, a new heuristic method based on the second derivative of the (conveniently smoothed) sunspot data is proposed. The curvature of the smoothed sunspot data at cycle minimum appears to correlate (R ≃ 0.92) with the cycle's later-occurring maximum amplitude. Secondly, in order to predict the near-maximum and declining activity of solar cycle 23, a neural network analysis of the annual mean sunspot time series is also performed. The results of the present study are then compared with some other recent predictions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto de Física Rosario, CONICET–Universidad Nacional de Rosario, Argentina

    P.F. Verdes, M.A. Parodi, P.M. Granitto, H.D. Navone, R.D. Piacentini & H.A. Ceccatto

  2. Boulevard 27 de Febrero 210 bis, 2000, Rosario, Argentina

    P.F. Verdes, M.A. Parodi, P.M. Granitto, H.D. Navone, R.D. Piacentini & H.A. Ceccatto

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  1. P.F. Verdes
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  2. M.A. Parodi
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  3. P.M. Granitto
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  4. H.D. Navone
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  5. R.D. Piacentini
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  6. H.A. Ceccatto
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Verdes, P., Parodi, M., Granitto, P. et al. Predictions of the maximum amplitude for solar cycle 23 and its subsequent behavior using nonlinear methods. Solar Physics 191, 419–425 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005202814071

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005202814071

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