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Assessing a safety margin for the fiscal deficit vis-a-vis the EMU ceiling

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  1. Box, G.E.P. and G.M. Jenkins (1976), Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, San Francisco, Holden-Day. 4 Separately, these additional factors require an estimated 0.5% of GDP risk margin (at the 95% probability level). The required additional risk margin of 0.1% GDP is the result of combining this risk margin with that associated with GDP growth and assuming no correlation between the two. The combined risk margin is then calculated by taking the root of the sum of squares of the separate risk margins. * The authors work at CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, PO Box 80510, 2508 GM The Hague, The Netherlands, e-mail: They are indebted to Henk Don and Barthold Kuipers for valuable suggestions.

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  4. Studiegroep Begrotingsruimte (1997), Op weg naar evenwicht, Den Haag, Sdu.

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Roodenburg, H., Janssen, R. & ter Rele, H. Assessing a safety margin for the fiscal deficit vis-a-vis the EMU ceiling. De Economist 146, 501–507 (1998).

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  • International Economic
  • Public Finance
  • Safety Margin
  • Fiscal Deficit