Abstract
A two-dimensional global climate model is used to assessthe climatic changes associated with the new IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and to determine which kind of changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations could mask the projected anthropogenic global warming associated to the SRES scenarios. Our results suggest that only extremely unlikely changes in total solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions would be able to overcome the simulated anthropogenic global warming over the century. Nevertheless, in the critical interval of the next two decades the externally-driven natural climate variability might possibly confuse the debate about temperature trends and impede detection of the anthropogenic climate change signal.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bard, E., Raisbeck, G., Yiou, F., and Jouzel, J.: 2000, 'Solar Irradiance during the Last 1200 Years Based on Cosmogenic Nuclides', Tellus 52(B), 985-992.
Berger, A. and Loutre, M.-F.: 1997, 'Paleoclimate Sensitivity to CO2 and Insolation', Ambio 26, 32-37.
Bertrand, C., Loutre, M.-F., Crucifix, M., and Berger, A.: 2002, 'Climate of the Last Millennium: A Sensitivity Study', Tellus 54A, 221-244.
Bertrand, C. and van Ypersele, J.-P.: 1999, 'Potential Role of Solar Variability as an Agent for Climate Change', Clim. Change 43, 387-411.
Bertrand, C., van Ypersele, J.-P., and Berger, A.: 1999, 'Volcanic and Solar Impacts on Climate Since 1700', Clim. Dyn. 15, 355-367.
Brovkin, V., Ganopolski, V., and Svirezhev, Y.: 1997, 'A Continuous Climate-vegetation Classification for Use in Climate-biosphere Studies', Ecol. Modelling 101, 251-261.
Crowley, T. J.: 2000, 'Causes of Climate Change over the Past 1000 Years', Science 289, 270-277.
Crowley, T. J. and Kim, K.-Y.: 1999, 'Modeling the Temperature Response to Forced Climate over the Last Six Centuries', Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 1901-1904.
Crucifix, M., Loutre, M.-F., Tulkens, Ph., Fichefet, Th., and Berger, A.: 2002, 'Climate Evolution during the Holocene: An Approach with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity', Clim. Dyn. 19, 43-60.
Crucifix, M., Tulkens, Ph., and Berger, A.: 2001, 'Modelling Abrupt Climatic Change during the Last Glaciation', in Seidov, B., Maslin, M., and Haupt, B. J. (eds.), The Oceans and Rapid Climatic Changes: Past, Present and Future, AGU Geophysical Monograph 126, 117-134.
Eddy, J. A.: 1976, 'The Maunder Minimum', Science 192, 1189-1202.
Eddy, J. A.: 1988, 'Variability of the Present and Ancient Sun: A Test of Solar Uniformitarianism', in Stephenson, F. R. and Wolfendale, A. (eds.), Secular Solar and Geomagnetic Variations, Dordrecht, pp. 1-23.
Farrar, P. D.: 2000, 'Do Cosmic Rays Influence Oceanic Cloud Coverage — Or Is It Only El Niño?', Clim. Change 47, 7-15.
Fichefet, Th. and Tricot, Ch.: 1992, 'Influence of the Starting Date of Model Integration on Projections of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change', Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 1771-1774.
Free, M. and Robock, A.: 1999, 'Global Warming in the Context of the Little Ice Age', J. Geophys. Res. 104, 19,057-19,070.
Gallée, H., van Ypersele, J.-P., Fichefet, Th., Tricot, Ch., and Berger, A.: 1991, 'Simulation of the Last Glacial Cycle by a Coupled, Sectorially Averaged Climate-Ice Sheet Model I. The Climate Model', J. Geophys. Res. 96, 13,139-13,163.
Graf, H. F., Kirchner, I., Robock, A., and Schult, I.: 1993, 'Pinatubo EruptionWinter Climate Effects: Model Versus Observations', Clim. Dyn. 9, 81-93.
Graf, H. F., Perlwitz, J., and Kirchner, I.: 1994, 'Northern Hemisphere Tropospheric Mid-latitude Circulation after Violent Volcanic Eruptions', Contrib. Atmos. Phys. 67, 3-13.
Haigh, J. D.: 1994, 'The Role of Stratospheric Ozone in Modulating the Solar Radiative Forcing of Climate', Nature 370, 544-546.
Haigh, J. D.: 1996, 'The Impact of Solar Variability on Climate', Science 272, 982-989.
Handler, P.: 1986, 'Possible Association between the Climatic Effects of Stratospheric Aerosols and Sea Surface Temperatures in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean', J. Climatol. 6, 31-41.
Houghton, J. T, Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. I. (eds.), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 944.
Houghton, J. T., Meira Filho, L. G., Callander, B. A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., and Maskell, K. (eds.): 1996, Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 572.
Hovine, S. and Fichefet, Th.: 1994, 'A Zonally Averaged, Three-basin Ocean Circulation Model for Climate Studies, Clim. Dyn. 10, 313-331.
Hoyt, D. V. and Schatten, K. H.: 1993, 'A Discussion of Plausible Solar Irradiance Variations, 1700-1992', J. Geophys. Res. 98, 18,895-18,906.
Hyde, W. T. and Crowley, T. J.: 2000, 'Probability of Future Climatically Significant Volcanic Eruptions', J. Climate 13, 1445-1450.
Jensen, E. G. and Toon, O. B.: 1992, 'The Potential Effects of Volcanic Aerosols on Cirrus Cloud Microphysics', Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 1759-1762.
Jones, P. D.: 1994, 'Hemispheric Surface Air Temperature Variations: A Reanalysis and an Update to 1993', J. Climate 7, 1794-1802.
Joos, F., Prentice, C. I., Sitch, S., Meyer, R., Hooss, G., Plattner, G.-K., Gerber, S., and Hasselmann, K.: 2001, 'Global Warming Feedbacks on Terrestrial Carbon Uptake Under the IPCC Emission Scenarios', Global Biogeochem. Cycles 15, 891-908.
Kaufmann, R. K. and Stern, D. I.: 1997, 'Evidence for Human Influence on Climate from Hemispheric Temperature Relations', Nature 388, 39-44.
Kodera, K.: 1993, 'Influence of the Stratospheric Circulation Change on the Troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere Winter', in Chanin, M. L. (ed.), The Role of the Stratosphere in Global Change, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 227-243.
Kodera, K. and Yamazaki, K.: 1994, 'A Possible Influence of Recent Polar Stratospheric Coolings on the Troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere Winter, Geophys. Res. Lett. 21, 809-812.
Lane, L. J., Nichols, M. H., and Osborn, H. B.: 1994, 'Time Series Analysis of Global Change Data', Environ. Pollut. 83, 63-88.
Langner, J. and Rodhe, H.: 1991, 'A Global Three-Dimensional Model of the Tropospheric Sulphur Cycle', J. Atmos. Chem. 13, 225-263.
Lean, J., Beer, J., and Bradley, R.: 1995, 'Reconstruction of Solar Irradiance Since 1600: Implications for Climate Change', Geophys. Res. Lett. 22, 3195-3198.
Nakićenović, N., Davidson, O., Davis, G., Grübler, A., Kram, T., Lebre La Rovere, E., Metz, B., Morita, T., Pepper, W., Pitcher, H., Sankovski, A., Shukla, P., Swart, R., Watson, R., and Dadi, Z.: 2000, IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York.
Örn, G., Hansson, U., and Rodhe, H.: 1996, Historical Worldwide Emissions of Anthropogenic Sulfur:p1860-1985, Report CM-91, ISSN 0280-445X, Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, International Meteorological Institute in Stockholm, Sweden, p. 20.
Parker, D. E., Folland, C. K., and Jackson, M.: 1995, 'Marine Surface Temperature: Observed Variations and Data Requirements, Clim. Change 31, 559-600.
Reid, G. C.: 1997, 'Solar Forcing of Global Climate Change Since the Mid-17th Century', Clim. Change 37, 391-405.
Rind, D., Balachandran, N. K., and Suozzo, R.: 1992, 'Climate Change and the Middle Atmosphere Part II: The Impact of Volcanic Aerosols', J. Climate 5, 189-208.
Robock, A. and Mao, J.: 1992, 'Winter Warming from Large Volcanic Eruptions', Geophys. Res. Lett. 12, 2405-2408.
Santer, B. D., Taylor, K. E., Wigley, T. M. L., Johns, T. C., Jones, P. D., Karoly, D. J., Mitchell, J. F. B., Oort, A. H., Penner, J. E., Ramaswamy, V., Scharzkopf, M. D., Stouffer, R. J., and Tett, S.: 1996, 'A Search for Human Influences on the Thermal Structure of the Atmosphere', Nature 382, 39-46.
Sassen, K., Starr, D. O., Mace, G. G., Poellot, M. R., Melfi, S. H., Eberhard, W. L., Sphinhirne, J. D., Elorante, E.W., Hagen, D. E., and Hallet, J.: 1995, 'The 5-6 December 1991 FIRE II Jet Stream Cirrus Case Study: Possible Influences of Volcanic Aerosols', J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 97-132.
Sato, M., Hansen, J. E., McCormick, M. P., and Pollack, J. B.: 1993, 'Stratospheric Aerosol Optical Depth, 1850-1990', J. Geophys. Res. 98, 22,987-22,994.
SchÖnwiese, Ch. D.: 1994, 'Analysis and Prediction of Global Climate Temperature Change Based on Multiforced Observational Statistics', Environ. Pollut. 83, 149-154.
Stott, P. A., Tett, S. F. B., Jones, G. S., Allen, M. R., Ingram, W. J., and Mitchell, J. F. B.: 2001, 'Attribution of Twentieth Century Temperature Change to Natural and Anthropogenic Cause', Clim. Dyn. 17, 1-21.
Stott, P. A., Tett, S. F. B., Jones, G. S., Allen, M. R., Mitchell, J. F. B., and Jenkins, G. J.: 2000, 'External Control of 20th Century Temperature by Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings', Science 290, 2133-2137.
Svensmark, H. and Friis-Christensen, E.: 1997, 'Variation of Cosmic Ray Flux and Global Cloud Coverage-a Missing Link in Solar-climate Relationships', J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 59, 1225-1232.
Thomson, D. J.: 1995, 'The Seasons, Global Temperature, and Precession', Science 268, 59-68.
Wang, P. H., Minnis, P., and Yue, G. K.: 1995, 'Extinction Coefficient (1 µm) Properties of High-altitude Clouds from Solar Occultation Measurements (1985-1990): Evidence of Volcanic Aerosol Effect', J. Geophys. Res. 100, 3181-3199.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Bertrand, C., van Ypersele, JP. & Berger, A. Are Natural Climate Forcings Able to Counteract the Projected Anthropogenic Global Warming?. Climatic Change 55, 413–427 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1020736804608
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1020736804608