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Development of an earthquake loss model for Turkish catastrophe insurance

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Abstract

Following the devastating Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes of August andNovember 1999, the Turkish Government was faced with an enormousfinancial burden as a result of its statutory obligation to cover the full costsof rebuilding. In order to offset this liability in the future – which has hadan adverse effect on the Government's economic programme – acompulsory earthquake insurance scheme has been introduced for allhouseholders in Turkey. A key element for successful implementation ofthis novel and ambitious programme is the transfer of the earthquake riskabsorbed by the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) to theinternational reinsurance market. An earthquake loss model, described inthis paper, has been developed for the TCIP to serve as a basis for thedecision-making process with respect to the pricing of its insurance policy,risk control, the purchase of reinsurance, and the transfer of seismic risk.Sample results of the loss calculations are presented.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College, London, UK

    Julian Bommer

  2. The Martin Centre, Cambridge University, UK

    Robin Spence

  3. Bogaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey

    Mustafa Erdik & Nuray Aydinoglu

  4. Willis, London, UK

    Shigeko Tabuchi & Oliver Peterken

  5. Edmund Booth Consulting Engineer, London, UK

    Edmund Booth

  6. Cambridge Architectural Research Ltd., Cambridge, UK

    Domenico del Re

Authors
  1. Julian Bommer
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  2. Robin Spence
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  3. Mustafa Erdik
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  4. Shigeko Tabuchi
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  5. Nuray Aydinoglu
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  8. Oliver Peterken
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Bommer, J., Spence, R., Erdik, M. et al. Development of an earthquake loss model for Turkish catastrophe insurance. Journal of Seismology 6, 431–446 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1020095711419

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