Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Integration of Case Studies on Global Change by Means of Qualitative Differential Equations

  • Published:
Integrated Assessment

Abstract

We present a novel methodology to integrate qualitative knowledge from different case studies on Global Change related issues into a single framework. The method is based on the concept of qualitative differential equations (QDEs) which represents a mathematically well-defined approach to investigate classes of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) used in conventional modeling exercises. These classes are defined by common qualitative features, e.g., monotonicity, signs, etc. Using the QSIM-algorithm it is possible to derive the set of possible solutions of all ODEs in the class. By this one can formulate a common, qualitatively specified cause–effect scheme valid for all case studies. The scheme is validated by testing it against the actually observed histories in the study regions with respect to their reconstruction by the corresponding QDE. The method is outlined theoretically and exemplary applied to the problem of land-use changes due to smallholder agriculture in developing countries. It is shown that the seven case-studies used can be described by a single cause–effect scheme which thus constitutes a pattern of Global Change. As a generally valid prerequisite for sustainability of this kind of land-use the presence of wage labor is shown to represent a decisive factor.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. J. Rotmans and B. de Vries, Perspectives on Global Change. The TARGETS Approach (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1997).

    Google Scholar 

  2. A. Ganopolski, S. Rahmstorf, V. Petoukhov and M. Claussen, Nature 391 (1998) 350–356.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. H.J. Schellnhuber and G. W. Yohe, Comprehending the economic and social dimensions of climate change by integrated assessment, in: Proceedings of the WCRP-Conference (1997).

  4. E. van Daalen, W. Thissen and M. Berk, Results from the IMAGE2.1 Model. The Delft process: experiences with a dialogue between policy makers and global modellers, in: Global Change. Scenarios of the 138 G. Petschel-Held, M.K.B. Lüdeke / Integration of case studies on Global Change by means of qualitative differential equations 21st Century, eds. J. Alcamo, R. Leemans and E. Kreileman (Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1998).

    Google Scholar 

  5. D.H. Meadows, D. L. Meadows and J. Randers, Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future (Chelsea Green Press, London, 1992).

    Google Scholar 

  6. K. Strzepek, D. Yates and D. El Quosy, Climate Research 6(2) (1996) 89–95.

    Google Scholar 

  7. S.J. Cohen, Mackenzie basin impact study (mbis), Technical report, Environment Canada (1997).

  8. B. Kasemir, J. Behringer, B. de Marchi, C. Deuker, G. Dürrenberger, S. Funtowicz, A. Gerger, D. Tabara, M. van Asselt, D. Vassileaou, N. Willi and C. Jaeger, Focus groups in integrated assessement: The ulysses pilot experience, ULYSSES Working Paper 97-4 (1997).

  9. H. Haken, Synergetics (Springer, Berlin, 1983).

    Google Scholar 

  10. R.W. Kates, B. L. Turner II and W. C. Clark, in: The Earth as Transformed by Human Action, The Great Transformation, eds. B.L. Turner II, W. C. Clark, R. W. Kates, J. F. Richards, J. T. Mathews and W. B. Meyer (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990) pp. 1–18.

    Google Scholar 

  11. P.C. Stern, O. R. Young and D. Druckman, Global Environmental Change: Understanding the Human Dimensions (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1992).

    Google Scholar 

  12. L.R. Oldeman, R. T.A. Hakkeling and W. G. Sombroek, World map of the status of human-induced soil degradation. An explanatory note (1990).

  13. D. Pimentel, C. Harvey, P. Resosudarmo, K. Sinclair, D. Kurz, M. McNair, S. Crist, L. Shpritz, L. Fitton, R. Saffouri and R. Blair, Science 267 (1995) 1117–1123.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. German Advisory Council on Global Change, World in Transition: Ways Towards Sustainable Management of Freshwater Resources (Springer, Berlin, 1999).

    Google Scholar 

  15. B. Kuipers, Artificial Intelligence 29 (1986) 289–338.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. B. Kuipers, Qualitative Reasoning: Modeling and Simulation with Incomplete Knowledge (MIT Press, Cambridge, 1994).

    Google Scholar 

  17. R.S.J. Tol, Ecological Economics 19 (1996) 67–90.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. J.E. Lovelock and M. Margulis, Tellus 26 (1974) 1–10.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. G. Petschel-Held, H.-J. Schellnhuber, T. Bruckner, F. Toth and K. Hasselmann, Climatic Change 41 (1999) 303–331.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  20. G. Petschel-Held, A. Block, M. Cassel-Gintz, J. Kropp, M. K. Lüdeke, O. Moldenhauer, F. Reusswig and H.-J. Schellnhuber, Environmental Modeling and Asssessment 4(4) (1999) 295–314.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. German Advisory Council on Global Change, World in Transition – The Threat to Soils. Annual Report 1994 (Economica, Bonn, 1994).

    Google Scholar 

  22. H. Schellnhuber, A. Block, M. Cassel-Gintz, J. Kropp, G. Lammel, W. Lass, R. Lienenkamp, C. Loose, M. Lüdeke, O. Moldenhauer, G. Petschel-Held, M. Plöchl and F. Reusswig, GAIA 6 (1997) 19–34.

    Google Scholar 

  23. G. Petschel-Held, M. K. Lüdeke and F. Reusswig, in: Coping with Changing Environments, eds. B. Lohnert and H. Geist (Ashgate, London, 1999) pp. 255–293.

    Google Scholar 

  24. D.J. Clancy and B. J. Kuipers, Static and dynamic abstraction solves the problem of chatter in qualitative simulation, in: Proceedings from the 14th National Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-97) (August 1997).

  25. C. Wissel, Theoretische Ökologie (Springer, Berlin, 1989).

    Google Scholar 

  26. LUCC, Land-use and land-cover change. Science Plan. IGBP-Report Nr. 35, Stockholm (1995).

  27. B.L. Turner, W. C. Clark, R. W. Kates, J. F. Richards, J. T. Mathews and W. B. Meyer, The Earth as Transformed by Human Action (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990).

    Google Scholar 

  28. J.X. Kasperson, R. E. Kasperson and B. L. Turner II, eds., Regions at Risk (United Nations University Press, Tokyo, 1995).

    Google Scholar 

  29. T. Krings, in: Coping with Changing Environments, eds. B. Lohnert and H. Geist (Ashgate, London, 1999) pp. 75–96.

    Google Scholar 

  30. Berleant and Kuipers, Artificial Intelligence 95 (1998) 215–255.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. O. Moldenhauer, Th. Bruckner and G. Petschel-Held, The use of semi-qualitative reasoning and probability distributions in assessing possible behaviors of a socio-economic system, in: Conference Proceedings of Computational Intelligence for Modelling, Control and Automation (CIMCA) 99, ed. M. Mohammadian (IOS Press, London, 1999).

    Google Scholar 

  32. O. Dordan, Artificial Intelligence 55 (1992) 61–86.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. P.D. Little and M. M. Horrowitz, eds., Lands at Risk in the Third World: Local-Level Perspectives (Westview Press, London, 1987).

    Google Scholar 

  34. R.W. Kates and V. Haarmann, Environment 34 (1992) 4–11, 25–28.

    Google Scholar 

  35. B. Lohnert and H. Geist, eds., Coping with Changing Environments (Ashgate, London, 1999).

    Google Scholar 

  36. B. Lohnert, in: Coping with Changing Environments, eds. B. Lohnert and H. Geist (Ashgate, London, 1999) pp. 75–96.

    Google Scholar 

  37. P.S. Dasgupta, Spektrum der Wissenschaft, Heft 7 (1995) 54–59.

    Google Scholar 

  38. M.K.B. Lüdeke, O. Moldenhauer and G. Petschel-Held, Environmental Modeling and Asssessment 4(4) (1999) 315–326.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany

    Gerhard Petschel-Held & Matthias K.B. Lüdeke

Authors
  1. Gerhard Petschel-Held
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Matthias K.B. Lüdeke
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Petschel-Held, G., Lüdeke, M.K. Integration of Case Studies on Global Change by Means of Qualitative Differential Equations. Integrated Assessment 2, 123–138 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013379402782

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013379402782

Search

Navigation