The Condorcet's Jury Theorem in a Bioethical Context: The Dynamics of Group Decision Making

Abstract

The Condorcet Jury Theorem was the first and remains a central model of collective decision making in both social and political theory. Advanced as an argument for small group or “jury” decision processes over those of individual experts, its axioms and conclusions have been a subject of rigorous debate in recent years. Those considerations have typically been mathematical and theoretical, however, rather than concrete and descriptive. This paper considers the applicability of the Jury Theorem in light of data collected in a series of focus groups organized at The Hospital for Sick Children (Toronto, Canada) to review organ transplant eligibility criteria. With each of four focus groups we used the Analytic Hierarchy Process to elicit views of hospital members and users on the relative importance of criteria commonly used to define organ transplant eligibility. Analysis of the priority measures obtained provided clear insights into issues of consensus, the role of experts, and the process of collective decision making by heterogeneous juries. The conclusions may be of use to those interested in democratic process and social theory in all contexts - legal, moral, and political - involving small group decision making.